When will the next recession be? (user search)
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  When will the next recession be? (search mode)
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Author Topic: When will the next recession be?  (Read 14118 times)
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


« on: April 10, 2019, 09:06:47 PM »

It depends that the results of the 2020 election are.
I agree, if we get Trump out quickly enough we might be able to avoid the brunt of it for a while.
I'm not sure about that. Ever since the Democrats took the House of Representatives the economy hasn't been doing as well. The Democrats will cause the economy to crash before Trump does. This is a repeat of 2008 all over again.

Democrats taking the Congress in 2006 had nothing to do with the crashing of the economy in 2008.

That recession was baked into the pie thanks to legislation passed during Clinton's administration and the means by which the Bush Administration and the Federal Reserve got us out of the 2001 recession. Namely boosting Housing and using that as a lead sector to pull the economy out of one recession, directly caused another. The substitution of debt for rising income also meant that once the financial sector became crippled thanks to the exposure caused by both the repeal of Glass Steagall and the proliferation of derivatives led to a credit crunch in mid 2007. Absent debt fueled consumption, the economy went into recession in December 2007.

Take out its leading sector and its primary source of domestic consumption and the end result is a deep, deep recession.



The Great Recession was caused by fraud by bankers and a lack of willingness to regulate by Chris Cox at the FEC and Alan Greenspan at the Fed.  Full stop.  Anything else are just red herrings.

In terms of the creation of bubbles, it may be that cutting capital gains taxes so that passive income is favored over 'earned' income has led to the dot.com bubble of 2000 and the housing bubble. However, there would not have been a housing bubble if not for the fraud.

The problem with the housing bank fraud is that loans were made that should not have been made.  Had there not been this fraud, by no means is it certain that alternative uses for the money loaned out would not have been productive.

Chris Cox was not appointed until 2005, by then it was really too late.

Both Bill Clinton and George Bush tried to push housing for people who could not afford it. The good part is that now that Hillary Clinton is gone from the mix and no one feels the need to carry the Clinton's water, Democrats are starting to acknowledge the role that Clinton played in the fiasco. It was Clinton's signature on the repeal of Glass-Steagall and it was Clinton's signature on the Commodities-Futures Modernization Act.

Without the Mortgage Backed Securities and credit default swaps, there would have been no credit based expansion and therefore no credit crunch (which is what induced the recession directly).


Glass Steagall and the Commodities Futures Modernization Act passed the Republican Congress with enough votes to override any Clinton veto.
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