When will the next recession be?

[Bidenworth2020]

I believe a semi-large one comes in early 2019

[Cassandra]

I'm willing to bet it holds off all the way until 2020. Next year is going to feel rough though; with higher gas prices and the yield curve inverted, all of us that watch those kinds of things are going to be talking about "the recession" before its official.

Prediction: corporate debt is the bubble that bursts. All these share buybacks are going to come back to haunt...

[136or142]

The Trumpcession caused by his tariffs and increasing government debt may have already started, however, I think it will be either a slow decline or just a long period of stagnation and not an actual decline in GDP.

[mileslunn]

I am guessing late 2019.  Not nearly as bad as the Great Recession, but worse than the slowdown around 2001.

[pops]

Betting on 2021-2022. Will be bad enough to raise unemployment to about 5-6%, but not nearly as bad as 2007-08.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Anywhere beetween Canadian Thanksgiving and Halloween 2019.

[Cassandra]

Betting on 2021-2022. Will be bad enough to raise unemployment to about 5-6%, but not nearly as bad as 2007-08.

Wow, I've met bulls before, but this is something else. The next recession is only going to bring the unemployment rate up one or two percentage points? Right...

[Sir Mohamed]

In the US? Late 2019 to mid 2020, as some economists suggested. It may not be a recession, but a downturn that lasts for 2-3 years.

[Saint Milei]

I think after 2020. Im surprised 0% interest rates didnt blow up in our faces already

[American2020]

From Robert Reich

https://www.newsweek.com/robert-reich-we-might-be-heading-crash-bad-1929-opinion-1101869

[Frodo]

After the 2020 election, probably. 

[RFayette]

This is about as meaningful as betting on the roll of a dice, but I would probably wager 2021-2022. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Betting on 2021-2022. Will be bad enough to raise unemployment to about 5-6%, but not nearly as bad as 2007-08.

Wow, I've met bulls before, but this is something else. The next recession is only going to bring the unemployment rate up one or two percentage points? Right...

Well the recession in early 2000s had unemployment peak at 6.3%

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet


so it wouldnt be unprecedented


I think though the next recession will be at early 90s level

[dw93]

Betting on 2021-2022. Will be bad enough to raise unemployment to about 5-6%, but not nearly as bad as 2007-08.

Wow, I've met bulls before, but this is something else. The next recession is only going to bring the unemployment rate up one or two percentage points? Right...

Well the recession in early 2000s had unemployment peak at 6.3%

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet


so it wouldnt be unprecedented


I think though the next recession will be at early 90s level

I can see this being the case. I doubt it'll be as mild as the 2001 recession, but I doubt it'll be 2009-09 bad or early 80s bad. Worst case scenario it'll be a 1973-'75 level recession.

[Izzyeviel]

Judging by the Apple news, this is going to be coming soon.

[Agonized-Statism]

Betting 2023-2025 for the next big one.

[Del Tachi]

Judging by the Apple news, this is going to be coming soon.

In China, sure.  But Chinese consumers feeling the negative side effects of Trump's tarrifs is probably not enough to push the American economy into recession.  Wall Street may slide, but it's not going to increase unemployment or stall wage growth.

[brucejoel99]

Late 2019 through mid-2020

[136or142]

What Will Cause the Next US Recession?

Jan 7, 2019 J. BRADFORD DELONG

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/possible-causes-of-next-us-recession-by-j--bradford-delong-2019-01

[LabourJersey]

Sometime between this coming summer and late 2021.

[The Salad Days]

economic horizon is 12-18 months, max.

Now that the Fed has stopped raising rates = No recession in sight = no recession in 2019

If China slows down, then commodity prices will decrease = no inflation = no rate hikes.

biggest threats to economy in 2019-2020:
1) Trump legal problems
2) lack of productivity increases
3) escalation of US-China trade war (doubtful)
4) actual deflation - if China bubble bursts in 2019 (doubtful)

Other than that, the US isn't facing any immediate bubbles that could burst and topple the economy like in 2008...and to a lesser extent, we don't have a stock market bubble comparable to 2000 when the P/E10 was well over 3 standard deviations from its historical mean.  Currently, the P/E10 is about 1.75 standard deviations above its historical mean, which is still very expensive, but not nearly the bubble of 2000.

We have long term problems (debt, entitlements, productivity), but nothing immediate to push the economy into recession... i.e. these are the salad days and they should continue for at least the foreseeable future (12 months)

So, barring impeachment, Trump is likely to go into the 2020 election with unemployment around current levels.

[136or142]

economic horizon is 12-18 months, max.

Now that the Fed has stopped raising rates = No recession in sight = no recession in 2019

If China slows down, then commodity prices will decrease = no inflation = no rate hikes.

biggest threats to economy in 2019-2020:
1) Trump legal problems
2) lack of productivity increases
3) escalation of US-China trade war (doubtful)
4) actual deflation - if China bubble bursts in 2019 (doubtful)

Other than that, the US isn't facing any immediate bubbles that could burst and topple the economy like in 2008...and to a lesser extent, we don't have a stock market bubble comparable to 2000 when the P/E10 was well over 3 standard deviations from its historical mean.  Currently, the P/E10 is about 1.75 standard deviations above its historical mean, which is still very expensive, but not nearly the bubble of 2000.

We have long term problems (debt, entitlements, productivity), but nothing immediate to push the economy into recession... i.e. these are the salad days and they should continue for at least the foreseeable future (12 months)

So, barring impeachment, Trump is likely to go into the 2020 election with unemployment around current levels.

I read a number of articles that said 2018 could be a big year for Artificial Intelligence.  If correct, that should help solve the productivity problems.  Of course, the impacts would be far from all felt in 2018, but, while there could be massive dislocation caused by this, in the longer term, significant A.I breakthroughs could lead to another economic revolution and massive economic growth.  How that wealth would be distributed though, is a different question.

Of course, I would also add to your list of long term problems both global warming and increasing concentration of wealth.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

You may as well ask a bunch of shamans how bountiful the next harvest will be based on their reading of goat entrails. Predicting recessions is a mugs game.

[Angel of Death]

March 29, 23:00 UTC.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You may as well ask a bunch of shamans how bountiful the next harvest will be based on their reading of goat entrails. Predicting recessions is a mugs game.