Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)
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Author Topic: Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)  (Read 140679 times)
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1775 on: August 23, 2022, 08:45:35 PM »
If VA GOv and NJ gov were held in months other than November I'm inclined to believe McAuliffe would have won and Murphy would have won by double digits. Trends are real folks. Dems are the party of high turnout voters now
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1776 on: August 23, 2022, 08:45:47 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1777 on: August 23, 2022, 08:45:55 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 23, 2022, 08:44:51 PM

He only outperformed Trump by 2.7% in the reddest county. Will have to see if Ryan's margins in the blue counties overtake that

This is almost the exact margins most benchmarks have for a 50-50 race.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1778 on: August 23, 2022, 08:46:02 PM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on August 23, 2022, 08:45:35 PM
If VA GOv and NJ gov were held in months other than November I'm inclined to believe McAuliffe would have own and Murphy would have won by double digits. Trends are real folks. Dems are the party of high turnout voters now

You don’t think Dobbs was a turning point?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1779 on: August 23, 2022, 08:46:32 PM »
Ryan outperformed Biden slightly with Ulster EV. This looks really close either way
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1780 on: August 23, 2022, 08:46:51 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 23, 2022, 08:46:02 PM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on August 23, 2022, 08:45:35 PM
If VA GOv and NJ gov were held in months other than November I'm inclined to believe McAuliffe would have own and Murphy would have won by double digits. Trends are real folks. Dems are the party of high turnout voters now

You don’t think Dobbs was a turning point?
Of course not! We're screwed in November folks
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #1781 on: August 23, 2022, 08:47:03 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 23, 2022, 08:46:02 PM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on August 23, 2022, 08:45:35 PM
If VA GOv and NJ gov were held in months other than November I'm inclined to believe McAuliffe would have own and Murphy would have won by double digits. Trends are real folks. Dems are the party of high turnout voters now

You don’t think Dobbs was a turning point?

I mean there is a difference from a neutral environment and losing Virginia.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1782 on: August 23, 2022, 08:48:05 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 23, 2022, 08:28:39 PM
Peltola now 7% ahead of Palin with a few more thousand in

Peltola 38.6% (was 38.2%)
Palin 31.6% (was 31.8%)
Begich 28.3%  (was 28.5%)

Peltola now up to 39.4% with latest update. +8.4 on Palin

Peltola 39.4%
Palin 31.0%
Begich 28.1%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1783 on: August 23, 2022, 08:48:32 PM »
Also, FYI any absentees that arrived today, yesterday, or even possibly Sunday will not be counted today.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #1784 on: August 23, 2022, 08:48:37 PM »

Probably not a lot of votes in those but in especially right race, who knows, could be critical.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1785 on: August 23, 2022, 08:49:17 PM »
« Edited: August 23, 2022, 08:53:37 PM by LGB Rights Matter! »
RYAN, PAT (DEM)- 21,762 (63.41%)
(not) FANBOY, HITLER (REP)- 12,559 (36.59%)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1786 on: August 23, 2022, 08:49:59 PM »
Quote from: LGB Rights Matter! on August 23, 2022, 08:49:17 PM
RYAN, PAT (DEM)- 21,762 (63.41%)
FANBOY, HITLER (REP)- 12,559 (36.59%)

Isn't Carl Paladino the Hitler fanboy?
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1787 on: August 23, 2022, 08:50:24 PM »
If that’s early vote in Greene County MOLINARO WILL WIN
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GALeftist
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« Reply #1788 on: August 23, 2022, 08:50:55 PM »
I'd say these returns suggest a nailbiter. Long way to go...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1789 on: August 23, 2022, 08:51:05 PM »
Quote from: LGB Rights Matter! on August 23, 2022, 08:49:17 PM
RYAN, PAT (DEM)- 21,762 (63.41%)
FANBOY, HITLER (REP)- 12,559 (36.59%)

Please don’t do that.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1790 on: August 23, 2022, 08:52:10 PM »
In Greene County, Ryan is getting the exact same 46% that Delgado got(!). Molinaro a little higher than Van DeWater but only because there were third parties in 2020.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1791 on: August 23, 2022, 08:52:20 PM »
Quote from: GALeftist on August 23, 2022, 08:50:55 PM
I'd say these returns suggest a nailbiter. Long way to go...

Yes, and since this is a special for just a few months before the districts change, I can go to sleep happy it’s a 2020 result even if we don’t know who actually wins in the end.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #1792 on: August 23, 2022, 08:53:05 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 23, 2022, 08:49:59 PM
Quote from: LGB Rights Matter! on August 23, 2022, 08:49:17 PM
RYAN, PAT (DEM)- 21,762 (63.41%)
FANBOY, HITLER (REP)- 12,559 (36.59%)

Isn't Carl Paladino the Hitler fanboy?

Oh whoops.

Anyway:

RYAN: 22,924 (61.18%)
MOLINARO: 14,543 (38.82%)
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #1793 on: August 23, 2022, 08:53:21 PM »
Quote from: Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon on August 23, 2022, 08:52:10 PM
In Greene County, Ryan is getting the exact same 46% that Delgado got(!). Molinaro a little higher than Van DeWater but only because there were third parties in 2020.
It’s literally only half the vote.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1794 on: August 23, 2022, 08:53:24 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 23, 2022, 08:48:05 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 23, 2022, 08:28:39 PM
Peltola now 7% ahead of Palin with a few more thousand in

Peltola 38.6% (was 38.2%)
Palin 31.6% (was 31.8%)
Begich 28.3%  (was 28.5%)

Peltola now up to 39.4% with latest update. +8.4 on Palin

Peltola 39.4%
Palin 31.0%
Begich 28.1%

Given the earlier total of 33K ballots left to count, I think we've done 10-13K so far today, so I believe there are still ~20K left to count?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1795 on: August 23, 2022, 08:54:43 PM »
Quote from: Forumlurker on August 23, 2022, 08:50:24 PM
If that’s early vote in Greene County MOLINARO WILL WIN

It includes day of vote as well.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1796 on: August 23, 2022, 08:55:01 PM »
Quote from: Forumlurker on August 23, 2022, 08:53:21 PM
Quote from: Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon on August 23, 2022, 08:52:10 PM
In Greene County, Ryan is getting the exact same 46% that Delgado got(!). Molinaro a little higher than Van DeWater but only because there were third parties in 2020.
It’s literally only half the vote.

The R won here by 5 in 2020 and Delgado won by 12 district-wide, so if the R is winning here by 8 with half the vote, not a great result for Rs. We'll see though...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1797 on: August 23, 2022, 08:55:53 PM »
In case we need any more hopium
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1798 on: August 23, 2022, 08:56:33 PM »
RYAN: 24,249 (61.27%)
MOLINARO: 15,330 (38.73%)
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #1799 on: August 23, 2022, 08:59:05 PM »
Pia did overperform heavily in Tompkins it seems with 95% in.
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