Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Legislative elections will be held in Argentina on November 14.
The election is held in "two" rounds: the PASO (September 12) and the actual election

In he PASO (Simultaneous and mandatory open primaries) all parties run primary elections in a single simultaneous election. All parties must take part, including both the parties with internal factions and parties with a single candidate list. You vote for one ballot/list for each category. A coalition needs 1.5% of the votes to get to the actual election and wif the coalition has competing ballots they need 15% of the coalition's total votes to get some representation in the final ballot


People will be voting for roughly half of the Diputados of each province and a third of the Senate

Deputies are voted by proportional representation using the D'Hondt method in a closed list with a 3% threshold, with each Province being their own at-large proportional-voting multi-person constituency

Senators from one province are all elected at the same time and the allocation is: 2 for the largest coalition and 1 for the second largest




The parties have 2 more days, until July 14, to decide the official confirmation of the coalitions and until the 24th to chose the candidates

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

As has been tradition since 2015, the main contestants will be the kirchnerista Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio, the coalition between Pro, the center right party of former president Mauricio Macri, and the centenarian vaguely center left to center right UCR , with some local participation by the non-kirchnerista Peronista parties, including many regional parties with sting presence in their own provinces (like in the case of Córdoba, Neuquén and Rio Negro), the Partido Socialista likely running on their own (or with some minor allies) in Santa Fe,
the remains of Lavagna's Consenso Federal , and a few libertarian and fiscally conservative and socially reactionary coalitions, as well as the leftist FIT that may get one or two seats in some of the larger provinces

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

In Buenos Aires Province (currently: FDT+allies 36,  JxC 28, CF+Randazzo 4, FIT:3)
:
- Frente de Todos will run under a united ballot, with no candidates known so far, as they don't have many particularly popular or well known names for this election

- there will be a primary between up-to-4 internal lists within Juntos por el Cambio

one led by Diego Santilli (Pro)(the current deputy mayor of Buenos Aires City) which has been endorsed by the former governor Maria Eugenia Vidal (Pro)and the mayor of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (Pro)

The Unión Cívica Radical list led by Facundo Manes, a neuroscientist and relatively recent newcomer to the world of politics

Gustavo Posse (UCR), the mayor of the  suburban San Isidro, the wealthiest county in the Province, since 1999, in an alliance with Martin Lusteau, senator for Buenos Aires City and one of the most progressive voices within JxC

Jorge Macri (Pro), cousin of former president Mauricio Macri and mayor of Vicente Lopez, another county in the first ring of BA's northern suburbs, who is still unsure about what to do and may get into an alliance with Manes update: Jorge Macri officially terminated his campaign


-Vamos con Vos: Florencio Randazzo, former minister of the Interior of Cristina Kirchner, will run in an alliance with the corpse of Consenso Federal

-Frente de Izquierda y de los Trabajadores, the coalition between several small troskyist parties

-up to 5 libertarian and socially reactionary/fiscally conservative coalition

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

In Buenos Aires City (JxC 18, FdT  7)
-There will be a primary between 2 lists within JxC

The main one supported by almost every major party within JxC and led by Maria Eugenia Vidal (Pro) former governor of Buenos Aires Province (2015-2019) and seconded by Martin Tetaz of the UCR

Republicanos Unidos, led by Ricardo Lopez Murphy, who got 3rd place in the 2003 presidential elections and was  of Macri' earliest supporters, in one the many fiscally conservative/kinda libertarian coalitions

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I should've probably starters with some context

The economy, as has been a tradition for almost all of the last decade, has been performing poorly to say the least, 45% live under the poverty line, the annual inflation rate is close to 50%, the unemployment rate is at 10%, the progress of the exchange rates is still a complete mystery, etc

Alberto Fernández's honeymoon period didn't last long, as the situation regarding Covid worsened and it became clear that the government didn't really have any useful strategy and especially after a corruption scandal that meant the replacement of the useless, and purely political, Health minister Gines Gonzalez Garcia and his replacement with her second on command. Alberto has had negative points in most  approval polls since the start of 2020, and the polls on the handling of the epidemic have also got awful results for the government

The situation regarding Covid is still pretty attrocious, with 15,000 average daily cases after a peak of 35,000 daily cases in the later day of May 2021

After the government realized that they couldn't do much on the pandemic or the economy, they tried to attack the opposition which didn't have the expected results as it ended up strengthening the moderate faction of Juntos por el Cambio, who had tried to open a dialogue with the government during the early days of the epidemic. After that failure, a lot of the government's work has been spent on personal conflicts between the national cabinet's members

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Thanks for that!  Couple of questions.

How would you rate JxC's chances of capturing each house of the legislature?
What has happened to the Menem/Massa current within Peronism?
Are there any potential presidential contenders running that we should keep an eye on?

I couldnt answet you the first one right now as i havent really checked
the polls or fone the math in any detail other than checking the basics for Buenos Aires Province so far

Menem and Massa haven't been in the same current for a long time. While they both centered on a populist return to stability that's where the similarities end, Massa was a lot more focused on a (relatively soft) hard on crime policy with social democratic elements, while Menem, during the 90s and earlier half of the 2000s was focused almost exclusively on fiscal conservatism (and his own personal profit)

The remains of the Peronismo Federal that was allied with Lavagna, and that stayed outside of the 2 main alliances, are getting close to former  Minister of the Interior Florencio Randazzo who is trying to get one or two seats in Buenos Aires Province, but they have a very weak team in other provinces like BA City, where they are apparently running Julio Bárbaro, who is the local version of that weird guy that no one knows much about his current job other than being on news shows a lot, in his case as a professional peronista.

The stronger part of that current, if you can even call it that by nowadays, are the  regional non-kirchnerista/FdT parties like Union or Córdoba and Movimiento Nacional Neuquino, which flip flop between being soft opposition and pro-govt depending on how much they can profit from it

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (Pro), current mayor of Buenos Aires and leader of the more moderate faction, ie pro-dialogue with kirchnerism and independents, is clearly running for the presidency as he's term-limited, other contenders within JxC may be the governor of Jujuy Gerardo Morales, and Macro's Security Minister and leader of the hardcore (eagles) faction of Pro, Patricia Bullrich

As for the Frente de Todos their strongest candidate for 2023 is still Alberto, as Cristina hasn't done many favors in changing people's opinions about her and there aren't many particularly strong FdT governors or cabinet members

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

In Buenos Aires Province:
- Frente de Todos will run under a united ballot, with no candidates known so far, as they don't have many particularly popular or well known names for this election

What can you say about the governor of Buenos Aires province, the magnificent Axel Kiciloff? Is he seeking reelection?

So far, I found Forbes magazine is in love with this "pseudo-marxist"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2021/07/01/axel-kicillof-the-pseudo-marxist-taking-over-argentina/

The governor is the ideal political successor to Cristina, along with the former president’s son Máximo. He was born and raised politically by CFK, acting as her Economy minister, then main swordsman of the opposition in Congress during the Macri years, and now in the all-important Buenos Aires Province, where the largest electoral bounty is located. He’s rash, aggressive, and combative. He’s young and handsome, winning himself the nickname of “Kici-love" (...)

He has a reputation for not being particularly smart and getting into stupid conflicts for no specific reason. He seems to be trying to get the presidential nomination in 2023, but I honestly don't see him getting particularly close to that, if he can't he'll likely go for the re-election. Máximo is a pretty bad candidate for similar reasons, and he isn't particularly well liked among any demographic or political sector

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Buenos Aires Province (PBA for short), its by far the largest province by population of 15.6 million inhabitants, two thirds living in the Gran Buenos Aires metropolitan are, and it's represented by 92 Diputados (FDT+allies 37,  JxC 28, Vamos 3, FIT:3)

•Frente de Todos will run on a single list and without many big  or flashy names on it, due to Alberto and governor Kicillof trying not to lose many national or provincial cabinet members, not having many big candidates that are doing particularly good on the polls, and making deals between the many sectors and smaller parties represented in the incumbent coalition, its main candidates are:
 1 Victoria Tolosa Paz (PJ), councilwoman in La Plata, the provincial capital,
chairwoman of the National Council for the Coordination of Social Policies, and Alberto Fernández's favorite to led the list. She ran for Mayor of La Plata in 2019, but lost the FdT primary by a small margin, she also held a number of relatively minor political posts during several kirchnerista administrations. Shes also married to Pepe Albistur, the media businessman that lends Alberto their apartment in the most expensive neighborhood of Buenos Aires
 2 Daniel Gollán (PJ), epidemiologist and the Province's health minister,.who will remain in this post until the November elections, and former national Health Minister during most of 2015 in the last months of Cristina's second mandate. He was Cristina's pick, against Kicillof's wishes
 3 Marcela Passo (Frente Renovador), an ally of Sergio Massa and former Diputada for Massa's party bet ween 2015 and 2019
 4 Sergio Palazzo, leader of the bank workers' labor union  currently an ally of Cristina
 5 Agustina Propato, provincial senator and wife of the right wing hard-on-crime PBA Security Minister
 6 Leopoldo Moreau (Mov Nacional Alfonsinista), a historical leader of the PBA UCR between the 80s and the early 2000s, he held serval major positions in those years including as Senator, Diputado (for 20 years), President of the lower house, and presidentsl candidate for the UCR in the 2003 elections (2.34% lol) After the incorporation of the UCR into Cambiemos he was formally expelled from his party and he got closer and closer to the kirchenieristas. Hell be renewing his seat which he won in 2017
 7 Vanessa Siley (La Cámpora) also renewing her seat shed the leader of a law clerk labor union, she tried to impeach Supreme Court Justice Rosencratz in a maneuver that was quickly rejected by Alberto
 8 Hugo Yasky (Nuevo Encuentro), and former leader of one the many teacher unions as well as founder and chairman of the CTA, the main alternative trade-union federation, which unlike the larger CGT has been always close to the Kirchners since the years of Néstor K
10 Julio Pereyra (PJ) former mayor of the GBA county of Florencio Varela (1993-2017!), which makes him another one of the Barones del Conurbano, he became a provincial senator after getting his preferred replacement as his successor
...
 12 Daniel Arroyo, the current Minister for Social Development (welfare and the biggest loser in this ballot, trading (pretty much against his will) an extremely powerful ministry against a back of the backbench seat

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

 Buenos Aires Province (pt. 2)

• Juntos (formerly Juntos por el Cambio [JxC] and Cambiemos) will run two lists on their primary
  - Es Juntos (Pro+Coalición Cívica), with the support of the Pro leadership, a coalition between the different wings in the informal Pro internal dispute and the largely irrelevant CC which got a lot of big seats in exchange
   1 Diego Santilli (Pro)the current deputy mayor of Buenos Aires City, like the mayor Larreta he's one of the leader of the party's moderate wing
   2 Ocaña  (Confianza Pública) (incumbent), she's been a Diputada 4 times with an intermezzo in which she was  director of PAMI (basically the equivalent of Medicare, but a lot more powerful), Health Minister and member of the CABA legislature
  3 Juan Manuel López (CC) Diputado for CABA and  leader of the 14-member CC parliamentary block
  4  Marcela Campagnoli (CC) (inc), most notably the sister of the controversial prosecutor José María Campagnoli
  5  Gerardo Milman (Pro), ally of Patricia Bullrich, the leader of the hawkish faction within Pro and he worked on her team on the Security Ministry
 6 Maria Sotolano (Pro) , Jorge Macri's insertion in the list, councilwoman for the southern (and poorer)GBA suburb of Quilmes
 7Hernán Lombardi (Pro), Media Secretary under Macri, previously culture minister of CABA and national Tourism Ministry under the Alianza government, a member of the hawkish wing
 8 Gabriela Besana (Pro), provincial deputy
 9 Alejandro Finocchiaro (Pro) Education Minister under Macri (2017-2019)
 10 Maria Borrego (CC) , former mayor of the rural county of 25 de Mayo (2009-2015)
 


 - Dar el paso UCR + a bunch of mayors and other politicians unhappy with Santilli being a CABA transplant and not a PBA native + Stolbizer. It should be noted that Manes didn't really have much involvement in which names were selected
  1 Facundo Manes (UCR), a neuroscientist and relatively recent newcomer to the world of politics. So far he's had a very empty speech even by the already low standards of the avg politician
  2 Danya Tavela (UCR) , college professor and deputy dean of UNNOBA, a rural public university. Picked by Lousteau at an attempt to get representatives from the healthcare (Manes) and education sectors in the first places of the ballot
 3 Emilio Monzó (P. del Diálogo) former president of Diputados (2015-2019) and one of the most prominent peronistas within JxC
 4 Margarita Stolbizer (GEN) , the leader and founder of the small progressive party GEN and the newest incorporation into JxC. Diputada for PBA between 1997-2005 and 2009-2017
 5 Fabio Quetglas (UCR) (inc)
 6 Elsa Llenderrozas (UCR), PoliSci UBA professor and an ally of the PBA UCR chairman
 7 Jesús Cariglino (Peronismo Republicano)  first mayor of the suburban county of Malvinas Argentinas (1995-2015), as a "barón del conurbano" (the term used for the entrenched and often corrupt and clientelisc mayors of the GBA) he's been in alliances with pretty much everyone (Duhalde, briefly with Kirchner and Massa, Vidal)
 8 Josefina Mendoza (inc), former president of the Federación Universitaria Argentina (2016-17)
 9 Pablo Juliano foemr leader of the PBA UCR Youth
 10 Maria José Navajas, one of the leaders of Padres Organizados, an NGO supporting returning to physical schools
 11 Walter Carusso(UCR Posse wing), provincial Diputado and Posse's guy on tbe list




 

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Buenos Aires Province (part 3 minor parties)

•Vamos con Vos: dissident peronistas and the remains of the Lavagna alliance
 1 Florencio Randazzo (PJ/Vamos), former Interior and Transportation Minister of Cristina Kirchner, his relations with kirchnerismo got worse over the years as Cristina appointed the rather useless Daniel Scioli the only approved presidential candidate within the FPV primaries while Randazzo was trying to establish himself as the coalition's candidate within a primary, and ended up running for Senator for PBA in 2017 getting 5% of the votes This time he's trying to revive the old desarrollismo (developmentalism)ideology, trying to convine elements of market liberalism and interventionism to foment a quick industrialization process, with a pinch of hard on crime talk, and hating both kirchnerismo and Cambiemos at the same time
 2 Carolina Castro, the first woman the 133-year-long history of the (25-member) excecutive committee of the UIA (Argentinean Industrial Union), the largest lobby group for industry employers' interests, as a representative of the auto parts industry, and subsecretary of small and medium businesses during the Macri administration
 3 Gustavo Pulti (Acción Marplatense, local party), former two term mayor (2007-15)  of General Pueyrredón, the most populated county in he province outside of the GBA-La Plata metro area, he had ran the county under a coalition between Acción MP and local FPV, but La Cámpora didn't let him compete in the 2019 FdT primaries , so this time he's running with Randazzo

•Avanza Libertad, the libertarian alliance led by Espert, as such the successor to 2019's Frente Despertar,
 1 José Luis Espert, the liberal economist , college professor and frequent pop-political TV show guest, who is looking forward to a performance much stronger than the one he had in the 2019 presidential elections (2.2% of the PASO and slightly under 1.5% in the  actual elections)
 2 Carolina Píparo as a last minute incorporation, she got elected under the Pro banner as a provincial diputada in 2017, and she first got prominence in the media after she was the victim of a particularly gruesome bank robbery in 2010. She was informally expelled from Pro after her husband crashed  someone  over with her car and she tried to bribe him with a pair of shoes
 3 Hugo Bontempo (UCeDE), as the representative of this long forgotten fiscally conservative party
 

•Frente de Izquierda, the trotskyist Coalition will run two lists, and as such almost all of its  historical leadership will run here making for a weaker list in CABA
 -PTS+PO: 1 Nicolás del Caño, 2 Romina del Plá, 3 Néstor Pitrola
 -MST Alejandro Bodart and Vilma Ripoll

Lists with 0 chance of getting a Diputado:

These include the 2 different nationalist ultra-conservative (pro-life, transphobic, anti "gender education", anti sex-ed) and fiscally conservative "main" alliances with connections to Evangelical churches
•Unión por el Futuro   will run two lists, but the only one that matters (even if very slightly) is that of Juan José Centurión , presidential candidate in 2019 for NOS (2.7% in the PASO, 1.7% in the October elections)
•+Valores Cynthia Hotton, NOS vicepresidential candidate in 2019

•Partido Republicano Federal/Principios y Valores, led by Guillermo Moreno, the controversial (read: extremely corrupt and with the attitude of a mob boss) kircherista secretary of commerce (2006-2013), since then he's become a perennial candidate and overall weird guy with a show on the sensationalist Crónica TV channel and who's clearly in some sort of informal alliance with some sectors of JxC
•Unite: Cinthia Fernández, will try to replicate the strategy of the Amalia Granata campaign in Santa Fe, i.e running as gossip show "personality" / generic media celebrity  under Bonacci's far right party
Two parties that couldn't get into the FIT lists that will ran on two separate ballots
•Nuevo MAS: Manuela Castañeira
 •Altamira's Política Obrera

•Frente Patriota Alejandro Biondini, residente wannabe neonazi and perennial candidate

Who-are-these-people tier lists
• Proyecto Justo Social y Humanista the rump remains of the Partido Socialist Auténtico, outside of Lavagna's movement, and Raul Castells' piquetero movement MIJD
• Partido Federal, the empty shell of a party formerly led by Francisco Manrique, a far-right coupist navy officer and minister in Alejandro Lanusse's military junta, that was also another irrelevant member of Lavagna's coalition
•Partido Celeste ProVida, yet another very socially conservative anti-abortion list, but this time even more irrelevant

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Please could somebody explain how the PASO works?  Like will the highest scoring internal list become that alliance's formal list in the general election or would the final list be a mixture of internal lists?

Yes

It's up to each individual Coalition in each individual province, and you also have to take into account the mandatory gender parity law, which means that it's a complete mess

Using Corrientes as an example:
ECO+Vamos Corrientes (JxC)
  for Diputados: D'Hondt system with no minimum threshold
  for Senators: full-list system, ie winner takes all
FDT D'Hondt for all posts, with a 5% threshold
Vamos D'Hondt for all posts with no threshold

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Please could somebody explain how the PASO works?  Like will the highest scoring internal list become that alliance's formal list in the general election or would the final list be a mixture of internal lists?

Yes

It's up to each individual Coalition in each individual province, and you also have to take into account the mandatory gender parity law, which means that it's a complete mess

Using Corrientes as an example:
ECO+Vamos Corrientes (JxC)
  for Diputados: D'Hondt system with no minimum threshold
  for Senators: full-list system, ie winner takes all
FDT D'Hondt for all posts, with a 5% threshold
Vamos D'Hondt for all posts with no threshold

Is the process how the final list will determined on the ballot (ie what is the threshold) or the voters have to find out by themselves?

by themselves, most people don't have a clue about this

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Mendoza, the fifth largest province by population ( Cambia Mza: 6D/2S, FDT+Allies: 4D/1S) and one of kirchnerism's weakest districts

•Cambia Mendoza (JxC) will run two lists, the main list  formed by the UCR and PRO, while the other one is representing Republicanos Unidos this time with some support from some minor sectors like Monzó's Partido del Diálogo and a Pro faction
 ~Senate:
 Juntos por Mendoza:
  1- Alfredo Cornejo (UCR), former Governorovernor of Mendoza (2015-2019) and Diputado (2005-2007/2019-)
  2. Mariana Juri (UCR), the Province's current Minister for Culture and Tourism and former Diputada (2009-13)
  3. Rodolfo Suárez (UCR), the current governor,  as a purely testimonial candidate
 República Ya - Cambia Ya
  1. Rodolfo Vargas Arizu (Recrear -Lopez Murphy's party), wine businessman
  2. Carina Lourdes Gannam, I couldn't find anything about her
 
 ~Diputados:
 Juntos por Mendoza
  1. Julio Cobos (UCR), former vicepresident (2007-2011), governor (2003-2007), Diputado (2013-2015) and current Senator (2015-2021) . He was elected as Cristina's VP as one of the leaders of the Radicales K (Kirchnerista-aligned members of the UCR) but he completely severed his relation with the president during the 2008 agrarian crisis and his (in)famous "voto no positivo" on the Resolución 125.
  2. Pamela Verassay (UCR), incumbent senator for Mendoza (2015-2021)
  3. Álvaro Martínez (Pro) provincial diputado
  República Ya - Cambia Ya
  1. Josefina Canale (P Demócrata Progresista), provincial diputada
  2. Julio Totero, metallurgical industrialist

•Frente de Todos
 ~Senate:
 1. Anabel Fernández Sagasti (PJ/La Cámpora) (inc), Senator, former Diputada and one of Cristina's strongest allies in one of her weakest provinces
 ~Diputados
 1. Adolfo Bermejo (PJ), provincial senator (2018-), national Senator (2009-2015), FpV gubernatorial candidate in 2015, and a representative of the more socially conservative wing of the Mendoza FDT
 2. Liliana Paponet, provincial diputada
[The FDT incorporated the Unidad Federal caucus led by Mendoza Diputado José Luis Ramón, but in an unexpected twist he didn't get any major post]
[for the ones below this point I'll only include the candidates for Diputados]

•Frente de Izquierda - Unidad , from what I could gather the FIT has decreased a lot in popularity in Mendoza since their glory days in 2013
 PTS: 1. Noelia Barbeito, former provincial senator (2014-18)
 Podemos (MST): 1. Nicolas Fernández

•Vamos! Mendocinos, Cambia Mendoza offshoot, Partido Demócrata  (local center right party that used to dominate local politics) + Coalición Cívica
 1. Gustavo Gutiérrez (PD), fomer  Diputado (1995-2003) for the PD,
  Lilita Carrio's VP candidate in 2003 and between then and last year the provincial leader of ARI and it's successor Coalición Cívica (Carrio's party)

•Partido Verde (Green Party) allied with a rump offshoot of Ramón's Protectora party
•Partido Federal
•Compromiso Federal
•Dignidad Popular (Bandera Vecinal)

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Yesterday, the provincial elections in Corrientes took place, this post will be pretty brief as I don't know much about correntino politics, and I'm a bit behind on my college classes

ECO+Vamos Corrientes (JxC) won by a devastating margin against their only opponent, the kirchnerista-peronista list Frente Corriente de Todos, in an election marked by a much lower turnout than any other gubernatorial election in Corrientes in recent memory (although it should be noted that this is the first gubernatorial election that wasn't held on the same date as the national elections)

Governor:
Gustavo Valdés [inc] (UCR/ECO) - Pedro Braillard (Partido Popular/Pro) 76.75% (+22.07)
Fabián Ríos (PJ) -Martín Barrionuevo (PJ) 23.25% (-21.95, ouch)

The results for the provincial  senate and diputados lists are pretty similar, and as in the national elections a third of the senators and half of the diputados are renewed in each election, and both are elected through an at-large costituency
S: 4(=) with 75.89% / 1(=) 24.11%
D: 13 (+2)77.39% / 2(-2) 21.61%
 
Corrientes has been governed by the UCR since 2001 and its been one of the weakest districts for peronistas and kirchneristas for well over 2 decades, but the local PJ+ alliances got a much more respectable 45% or so in 2013 and 2017

Ríos previously got 30.7% in the 2009 gubernatorial elections, but that was back when the PJ+ coalition was used to getting attrocious results in every election in Corrientes, against Ricardo Colombi's 51.3% and Arturo Colombi's (inc.) 32.7% (yes, the Colombis are cousins)


As for the national elections there will be 4 coalitions running for Corrientes' 3 Senators (currently: FDT: 2-JxC: 1) and 3  of its Diputados (JxC: 4-FDT: 3)

ECO+VC will run 2 lists for the senate and 3 for diputados

 ~Senate:
   Lista Verde, the main list supported by the UCR and Pro
   1. Eduardo "Peteco" Vischi (UCR), provincial diputado and former mayor of Paso de los Libres, the main city on the border between corrientes and Brazil
   2. Gabriela Valenzuela (UCR), former provincial diputada
 
   Libertad+Valores+NOS.... (NOS)
   1. Mario Cerono (Evangelical pastor), 2. María Marta Silva Ortiz (NOS)
 
 ~Diputados:
   Lista Verde
   1. Manuel Aguirre (UCR), provincial diputado
   2. Sofía Brambilla (Pro) [inc.]

  Vamos Juntos, the list of Partido Autonomista, one of two liberal center-right parties that dominated local politics under a coalition until the late 1990s, they share the ballot with Lista Verde in the Senate elections
  1. Guillermo Harvey (Autonomista), 2. Andrea Silvina Silvero
  Libertad+Valores+NOS.... in this case a coalition between Partido Liberal, the other old liberal center-right party, NOS, Libertarios de Corrientes and Recrear
  1. Ricardo Guillermo Leconte Jr. (Liberal), 2. María Nieve Garay

Frente de Todos
 ~Senate:
   Lista Celeste y Blanca, the main list, weakly, endorsed by the national
   1. "Camau" Espínola [inc] , national senator since 2015, fomer sailing Olympic  athlete, mayor of the provincial capital (2009-2013) and gubernatorial candidate in 2013, he has a reputation for being a bit of a maverick/opportunistic and changing his national affiliation depending on how much it benefits him
  2. Ana Almirón [inc.] , she was elected as Camau's formula parter in 2015 and has always been very close to Cristina's wing

  Ganemos Corrientes, the anti-Cámpora "true Peronista" wing of the PJ
  1. Alejandro Karlen (Mercosur MP), 2. Nieve de los Ángeles Cuenca

 ~Diputados
    Lista Celeste y Blanca
     1. Jorge Antonio Romero [inc], 2. Marlen Gauna
    Ganemos Corrientes
      1. Jorge Gustavo Silva, 2. Lilian Caruso

Minor parties with no chance of getting a seat:

Vamos con Vos, Randazzo's alliance will run two lists, both from Lavagna's smaller center-left ally parties
 -Libres (Libres del Sur) and
 -Encuentro Social Amplio (Partido Socialista):

Compromiso Federal

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Because of nonsense covid protocols, pretty big lines have been forming at pollings stations in lots of places (Reminder: almost everything is opened up again, there is no reason to have an election with such annoying protocols)

I went to vote and when I saw that the line went around the block I noped out of there.

Yeah, the protocols were applied in an attrocious way, and often with very little social distancing in practice (including on my own polling station, where that was LESS distancing than on any previous election)

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Turnout is lower than 2019 so far. Not a lot to report but a funny story:

https://twitter.com/therealbuni/status/1437081716796108804

Voter: "and Milei, where is Milei's ballot, they are committing fraud"

Poll worker: "That's in Buenos Aires idiot, you can't vote for him in Rosario (Sante Fe province)"

Yeah, as a poll worker I had a few incidents like that over the years

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The first official results have now been published on the official website, https://www.resultados.gob.ar/ , with over 60% of the votes counted

Córdoba (88.38% counted)
Senate:
Juntos: 47.8%, 775,413 votes
  -Cambiemos Juntos (Luis Juez-Carmen Álvarez): 57.44%
  -Juntos por Córdoba (Mario Negri- Soher El Sukaria): 36.19%
Hacemos por Córdoba 24.5%
Todos 10.97%
FIT 4.22%
   -PTS: 51.5%, MST: 27.7%, PO: 20.72%
Unión Popular Federal 2.13%
La Libertad Avanza 1.58%

Pretty similar results for the diputados lists in Cordoba
 

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Ciudad de Buenos Aires (84.51% of the votes counted)

Juntos 48.36%
  -Juntos Podemos Más (Vidal): 68.29%
  -Republicanos (Lopez Murphy) 23.44%
  -Adelante Ciudad (Rubinstein) 8.26%
An overall weak result for JxC, but still clearly dominant, clearly debilitated by Milei's performance, with a fairly strong performance by Lopez Murphy

Todos 24.7%
A week result for Todos, which was only able to keep their traditional hardcore base

La Libertad Avanza 13.67%
An amazing result for Milei, who should be able to get 2 or maybe even 3 diputados

FIT 6.2%
  -PTS+PO+IS: 86.3, MST: 13.7
The Left has decent chances of getting Bregman as a diputada

AyL 2.6%
Maybe they can get one city legislator

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

So, how does the Left do in the Conurbano? Because I find hilarious that they are beating Esper in Buenos Aires Province, but I guess the Conurbano still isn't out.

They're having a decent result in the GBA,  so far with 55% of the votes counted, theyre getting 6% (80% del Caño -20% Bodart) while Espert is on 5%, on the interior of the province theyre both tied both pretty close to 5% each (with the same result on thw Left's primary)

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Buenos Aires Province(70.32% of the votes counted)

Juntos 38.32%
  - Es Juntos (Santilli) 59.35%
  - Dar el paso (Manes) 40.64%
 A good result for the main opposition alliance, with a stronger performance by Manes than what anyone was expecting

Todos 33.52%
 Yeah, this was a bad election for the kirchnerista list, were they were expecting a 5% victory

FIT 5.14%

Avanza Libertad 4.84%
Espert's calm personality clearly got a weaker result than the more chaotic and boisterous Milei, but still a pretty good result for the libertarians, and a lot better than what they got 2 years ago

Vamos con Vos 3.7%
A much weaker result than what Randazzo, or Lavagna's candidate, got in previous elections, certainly weakened by his gaffes and  weird ads in recent weeks

+Valores 1.44%
Hotton got the most votes out of the many ultra conservative lists, she may get above the 1.5% Paso threshold, but thats about it

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Provinces that voted Senators in this election

Catamarca:
Todos 51.43% - JxC 31.23
(2-1/=)

Chubut: 
JxC 39.66% - 26.11% - Chubut somos todos 13.28% (local peronistas) - FIT 9.66% [/color]
(2 - 1 <- 3 [there was a ChubutST senator who moved to Todos])

Corrientes: ECO+VC 58.8% - Todos 34.45% (2 - 1  <-FDT: 2-JxC: 1)

Córdoba:
JxC 47.8% - Hacemos por Córdoba 24.44% (local peronistas) - Todos 10.91%
(2-1 <- 2 - 1 , with an Hacemos->Todos swap in-between)

La Pampa:
JxC 48.82 - Todos 38.16%
(2 - 1  <- 2- 1)

Mendoza:
JxC 43.12% - 25.19
(2 - 1 / =)

Santa Fe:
JxC: 40.14%-Todos 29.86% - Frente Amplio Progresista 10.87
(2-1 <- 2- 1)

Tucumán:
Todos: 48.7% - Todos 35.24%
(2 - 1 / =)

A strong defeat for the national government on the Senate, and with this reaults they'll lose their majority

Todos: 35 - JxC: 31 - independent peronistas: 6

Right now, at 23:32 Todos is having their first offical act, several hours after Juntos, Milei and Espert, "We must've done something wrong if the people didn't accompany us with their votes" and "We haven't done enough for the people" were some of the first sentences on Alberto's speech, and 10 minutes after that their act is over with no else speaking(LOL)

If anyone wants to follow the election county-by-county La Nación, as is tradition, has the best interactive maps for this https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/resultados-de-las-paso-2021-el-mapa-en-tiempo-real-nid13092021/#

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Diputados (acording to La Nación's projection)
Todos and allies: 117 (49 seats on this election) <- 126
JxC: 116 (61) <- 115
FIT:4 (4) <- 2
La Libertad Avanza+Avanza Libertad 4(4) <- 0
Others  (many of them being independent peronistas) 16 (9) <- 14

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Myriam Bregman managed 6.5% to 8% in the central and to a lesser extent southeastern communes, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 15. She did worst (4-5.5%) in the northeastern communes 2, 13, 14 and interestingly below average in the southeast. So basically a mirror image of Milei's results, where his worst communes are her best and vice versa. In Commune 15 the combined vote of all the leftists would be slightly higher than his result but everywhere else it isn't close. To my ignorant eye it looks like they were indeed both fighting over protest votes. My first guess was UBA but that (and the other universities for that matter) is in Commune 1, where Bregman did better than the other coastal communes. I leave it to a Porteño to explain why the geography of the battle for 3rd looked so different from that of the battle for 1st because I'd love to see some explanations from someone who knows better

Comuna 1 is a mess to analyze in general,the only things that connects all those neighborhoods is being close to the 9 de Julio and/or "el bajo" (Libertador, Alem, Paseo Colón) Avenues
There are some of the most upper class parts of the city in the old parts of Retiro, the largely nouveau riche Puerto Madero, Microcentro and Centro [taking the latter as roughly San Nicolás west of the 9 de Julio] which are largely middle to lower-middle class, the slums of Villa 31 and 31 bis, the busy lower class neighborhood of Constitución, the touristic parts of San Telmo, and a lot more stuff

Retiro itself as a neighborhood has always been devoured by its neighbors, as the northern parts are often considered part of Recoleta or the more nebulous Barrio Norte, the Catalinas Norte towers are considered by most as part of Puerto Madero and a samll aprt between Parque San Martín and Cordoba Ave. is often taken as part of Microcentro

And Centro, Microcentro, Constitución and parts of Retiro have received lots of migrants both from neighboring countries (+Venezuelasns in recent years) from the Interior and many peiple from the southhern parts of the Conurbano (as the Linea Roca train connects Zona Sur with Constitución and then you can take the C subway which has stops all across the 9 de Julio)

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Several ministers and cabinet member, especially those close to Cristina have filed their resignation, including the Interior, Justice, Territorial Development (HUD), Environment, Science and Culture Ministers, the Secretary of Interior Commerce and the chairwomen of the ANSES (the agency in charge of social Security and large parts of welfare) and  PAMI (Medicare), in the latest phase of the """hidden""" primary between the President and the VP

A similar situation has also taken place in the Province of Buenos Aires, and in Santa Cruz governor Alicia Kirchner (Néstor's sister, and as such Cristina's sister in law), often ranked as the country's worst governor has asked for all her cabinet to resign after Todos suffered a landslide loss and barely won the second place over a local party I had never heard of

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

New cabinet, which includes a lot of changes, mainly among those closest to Alberto
One of the big ones is that Santiago Cafiero, one of Alberto's closest allies, will be "demoted" from Cabinet Chief to Minister of Foreign Affairs
Chief of Cabinet: Santiago Cafiero->Juan Manzur, current governor of Tucumán
Foreign Affairs:Felipe Solá -> Santiago Cafiero
Security Minister: Sabrna Frederic, who has been criticized a lot in recent weeks for her gaffes (her Switzerland comments) and general uselessness, -> Aníbal Fernández
Agriculture: Luis Basterra -> Julián Domínguez, who previously held this post between 2009 and 2011
Science and Technology: Roberto Salvarezza -> Daniel Filmus
Education: Nicolás Trotta->Jaime Perzyck
Press secretary: Juan Pablo Biondi -> Juan Ross

Wado de Pedro (Interior Minister), Soria (Justice Minister), Bauer (Culture), Cabandié (Environment) and Ferraresi (Territorial Development) will keep their posts as Alberto rejected their resignations

I may be updating this post later to make it more useful, in the meanwhile here's a relatively recent (from before the changes in the ministreies) opinion poll about the Fernández cabinet