2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[BigSerg]

Conservatives should point out that they have won the popular vote twice in a row.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Also, am I right to say that the NDP has underperformed their polling/expectations yet again? Jagmeet seems well-liked but he hasn't scored a breakthrough for the party, though maybe this is the best the post-2015 NDP can do.

Jagmeet is in a very narrow lead in his riding. We may not have to worry about that after tonight.

Couldn't he have picked a less competitive riding for himself lol?

I never quite understood why he chose to carpetbag to, of all places, a three-way-split riding in the Vancouver suburbs, instead of sticking with a three-way-split riding in his provincial stomping grounds near Mississauga where he'd have held more recognition.

[Lief 🗽]

Conservatives should point out that they have won the popular vote twice in a row.

Conservatives should support proportional representation so that an injustice like this never occurs again!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why don't they call COB-CND riding for Small yet? Only 1 poll is still not reporting and Small holds a 2% lead.

Abundance of caution, perhaps? CBC has been among the most cautious with calls after all.

[MaxQue]

Why don't they call COB-CND riding for Small yet? Only 1 poll is still not reporting and Small holds a 2% lead.

Abundance of caution, perhaps? CBC has been among the most cautious with calls after all.

The missing poll is the postal votes.

[Logical]

Every federal election, BC tells pollsters one thing and votes a whole other way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why don't they call COB-CND riding for Small yet? Only 1 poll is still not reporting and Small holds a 2% lead.

Abundance of caution, perhaps? CBC has been among the most cautious with calls after all.

The missing poll is the postal votes.

Aaaah. That's it.

[Podgy the Bear]

Conservatives should point out that they have won the popular vote twice in a row.

It does just as good as the Democrats winning the PV in 2000 and 2016.

[Don Vito Corleone]

The Conservative vote is likely going to be even more inefficient than it was in 2019. In Ontario in particular, their efficiency is shockingly bad:

[Pericles]

Are media organisations going to call the PV or do they not care?

[Vosem]

Torys are gaining ground in rural/smalltown Ontario, losing ground in suburbs. #Trends I guess, which is both disappointing and interesting. It's early, but it appears to also have occurred in Vancouver.

Something similar in Vancouver, but the thing is that it really doesn't look like an American pattern: in Ontario the Tories are doing fairly well in college towns and secondary urban areas. It's not even the entire GTA (they have a couple of impressive-ish results in Mississauga and Brampton, at least relative to 2015/2019); it's the northern part where they did pretty well in 2019. Similarly the Vancouver collapse is localized to heavily-Chinese areas.

I wonder if part of moving to the center meant doing worse among ethnic minorities and better among whites? These ridings don't have very elevated PPC numbers, though. Part of the Scheer --> O'Toole shift is a decline among Asian-Canadians and improvement among whites, for whatever reason.

EDIT: Interestingly ties in with the Democratic improvement in heavily Vietnamese areas at the California recall. Two very different campaigns in very different polities, but I wonder if a broad rule can be drawn that right-wing parties in Anglophone countries will tend to alienate Asian voters if they're perceived as soft on COVID, and trade them for a sort of younger exurban maybe-vaguely-centrist white voter. Although it's not like Kitchener has very much in common with Merced at all, so maybe I'm just stretching here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TIL there is literally a riding called Quebec, that is within Quebec.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are media organisations going to call the PV or do they not care?

CBC has not mentioned the PV once. It seems Canadian media just doesn't care about the PV.

[The Lord Marbury]

What a grand waste of everyone's time and money Justin.

Not true, Ruth Ellen is leading in Berthier—Maskinongé

195/274 precincts

REB 36%
BQ’s candidate 33%
Margin: 900 votes

So far, she’s still leading 🧡

REB's lead is now down to 238 votes with 231/274 precincts reporting.

[BigSerg]

Conservatives should point out that they have won the popular vote twice in a row.

It does just as good as the Democrats winning the PV in 2000 and 2016.

Yes, Democrats always point out that they won the popular vote, conservatives do not.

[Holmes]

TIL there is literally a riding called Quebec, that is within Quebec.

It's named after the city of Quebec, located within the province of Quebec.

[Pericles]

Conservatives should point out that they have won the popular vote twice in a row.

It does just as good as the Democrats winning the PV in 2000 and 2016.

Yes, Democrats always point out that they won the popular vote, conservatives do not.

? because there hasn't been a presidential election where the Republican loser won the PV. If that ever happened, Republicans would be enraged for sure.

[Continential]

Conservatives should point out that they have won the popular vote twice in a row.

It does just as good as the Democrats winning the PV in 2000 and 2016.

Yes, Democrats always point out that they won the popular vote, conservatives do not.

You do realize that a Presidential election isn't the same as a Parliamentary election.

[Vosem]

Conservatives should point out that they have won the popular vote twice in a row.

It does just as good as the Democrats winning the PV in 2000 and 2016.

Yes, Democrats always point out that they won the popular vote, conservatives do not.

Yeah, as Lief pointed out upthread reforms of the Canadian electoral system would not be likely to rebound to the benefit of the Conservative Party.

(What would rebound to the benefit of the Conservative Party is a more effective NDP leader. They really need to drop Singh, stat, and then once the NDP has surged a bit Tories will be able to use the fear of an NDP government to get Blue Liberals to vote for them. But Canadian Tories post-Diefenbaker generally haven't formed governments when the NDP has been weak.)

[BigSerg]

Conservatives should point out that they have won the popular vote twice in a row.

It does just as good as the Democrats winning the PV in 2000 and 2016.

Yes, Democrats always point out that they won the popular vote, conservatives do not.

? because there hasn't been a presidential election where the Republican loser won the PV. If that ever happened, Republicans would be enraged for sure.

*Conservative Party of Canada

[Vosem]

The Markham-Unionville result is even weirder since that was a riding that actually swung pretty strongly Conservative between 2015 and 2019. How come Saroya lost? (Along with Chiu in Vancouver). I feel like an answer to that question would come close to explaining why O'Toole lost as a whole.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TIL there is literally a riding called Quebec, that is within Quebec.

It's named after the city of Quebec, located within the province of Quebec.

And in the riding of Quebec, located in a city called Quebec that is in the province of Quebec, the biggest employer is the Quebec provincial government.

[Lief 🗽]

Every federal election, BC tells pollsters one thing and votes a whole other way.

Yeah the Liberals were supposed to get crushed here? But they're actually picking up seats from the Conservatives in Vancouver at the moment.

[Nyvin]

The Conservative vote is likely going to be even more inefficient than it was in 2019. In Ontario in particular, their efficiency is shockingly bad:

It looks like almost all of that is the Toronto metro,  I'm seeing seat after seat after seat that was a Liberal win by <10%

Then as soon as it's the districts outside Toronto the Tories win by giant margins.

[Continential]

Annamie Paul is addressing the press.