What would the consensus be then?
In May 1978, would Carter be "unbeatable" despite a tough 1978 midterm? Would Ronald Reagan be considered a Ted Cruz equivalent?
In May 1990, would anyone who said Bush was very vulnerable be laughed out of the park?
In May 1983, after the bruising '82 midterms, would anyone really say that Reagan was on his way to a 49-state landslide?
That being said, I still think Clinton is the favorite in the primary and the general, but I think too many people are seeing Clinton as inevitable. In reality, predictions at this stage of the game would have been wrong about the same amount they'd have been right.
So as an exercise, who would be the Atlas favorite as next President in past elections at this point?
2016-Hilary
2012/2008/2004-I know Atlas was around back then, but I'm not quite sure. Probably Obama(midterms weren't necessarily going to be "that bad" yet)/Giuliani or McCain/Bush
2000-Gore
1996-Some Republican(given '94 midterms)
1992-Bush
1988-Bush
1984-probably some Democrat
1980-Carter
1976-unknown Democrat
1972-don't know
1968-definitely not Nixon, but likely some Republican
1964-LBJ
1960-Nixon
Don't you mean Kennedy? At this point in the 1964 cycle, Kennedy was still alive, well and coasting to a second term.
Just goes to show how much can change in such a short period of time.
