WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://eu.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/22/wisconsin-election-tom-nelson-files-statement-candidacy-senate/3738479001/

"Nothing to announce," Nelson said Thursday night. "Just a filing."

Outagamie voted 53.1% Trump - 40.5% Clinton.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Republicans would be heavily favoured but I don't think you can say it's already safe R given the kinds of overperformances relative to the environment (even with trends on the wrong side, in some case) in recent Senate cycles. Cory Gardner 2014, Sherrod Brown 2018 etc all come to mind.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Republicans would be heavily favoured but I don't think you can say it's already safe R given the kinds of overperformances relative to the environment (even with trends on the wrong side, in some case) in recent Senate cycles. Cory Gardner 2014, Sherrod Brown 2018 etc all come to mind.

Gardner and Brown both won in very favorable years for their parties.

I picked those two seats because both were trending away from the victors and probably had a baseline quite unfavourable to these victors in both cases (as evidenced at least in part by the downballot results in those states - Hickenloopoer, DeWine, etc.). I'll leave out MT because it's politically quixotic and MO because of the exceptionally poor Republican candidate, but one could also consider IN and ND in 2012 (they were won in a less polarised time, but already those states had a heavier Republican lean than the one WI might have in 2022). Democrats didn't win MO in 2016, but a Kanderesque overperformance probably wouldn't be needed to put a WI Dem over the line.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Republicans would be heavily favoured but I don't think you can say it's already safe R given the kinds of overperformances relative to the environment (even with trends on the wrong side, in some case) in recent Senate cycles. Cory Gardner 2014, Sherrod Brown 2018 etc all come to mind.

Gardner and Brown both won in very favorable years for their parties.

I picked those two seats because both were trending away from the victors and probably had a baseline quite unfavourable to these victors in both cases (as evidenced at least in part by the downballot results in those states - Hickenloopoer, DeWine, etc.). I'll leave out MT because it's politically quixotic and MO because of the exceptionally poor Republican candidate, but one could also consider IN and ND in 2012 (they were won in a less polarised time, but already those states had a heavier Republican lean than the one WI might have in 2022). Democrats didn't win MO in 2016, but a Kanderesque overperformance probably wouldn't be needed to put a WI Dem over the line.

All of these were in favorable (or neutral) environments.  In a wave environment (which 2022 will likely be), no non incumbent is overcoming the lean/trend of a state (except Joe Manchin in 2010 when Dems were still incredibly strong downballot).

Your 'safe R' rating is predicated on it being a wave environment which you believe 2022 is only 'likely' to be and that in itself is reason enough to downgrade the race to likely R.

That said, these races were not all in favourable/neutral environments relative to the previous races in these states. The national environment being only slightly worse for Democrats in 2012 (compared to 2006) didn't stop the nasty state-level trends (and swings elsewhere on the ballots) in most of these races. ND 2012 was probably a significantly more favourable environment for Republicans than WI 2022 although there is less considerably less ticket-splitting these days.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am assuming that Johnson is likely going to announce that he's not going to run again.

Why? All of his recent political commentary would indicate he's gearing up for another culture war-driven election campaign.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Do not assume Ron Johnson definitely wants out. Senators often leave saying 'the gridlock/rudeness/etc. has become too much', but few opine that their legacies as failures.

"I'd rather be somewhere else," can very easily lead into a culture war refrain of "I'd rather be somewhere else, but duty calls and Biden wants to vaccinate your children." Indeed, in his interview, he says he admires George Washington because he didn't want to be president, which gives him an opportunity to present himself as some kind of reluctant hero.