IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12

[pbrower2a]

Lol. I believe this is a Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want.

We see few polls in Indiana. The common wisdom was that the Republicans would defeat Donnelly in a strong-R state. 50% wins.

Note that Trump approval is abysmal in Indiana -- for Indiana. That matters greatly. Unless you want to claim that this poll has a bad sample, don't argue with it.  This is a Republican pollster;  wait for the next one or the 2016 election to see how this result goes.

Indiana is very rural. Does anyone think that the tariffs and trade war will help Republicans of any kind in the Hoosier State?

[pbrower2a]

It's hard to believe that Donnelly could be up 7% in Indiana... but this is a bad year for Republicans. I'd like to see results in Allen (Fort Wayne), St. Joseph (South Bend and Mishawaka), Elkhart, and Hamilton (northern suburbs of Indianapolis) counties... St. Joseph County is definitively Rust Belt. Hamilton County is politically similar to counties surrounding Atlanta and Dallas, with intellectually-upscale voters who have been slow to abandon the GOP. 

Add to this, Indiana is heavily rural, and farmers typically vote complacently for Republicans out of concern for higher taxes and of regulations of working conditions of farm laborers. Farmers will hate the President's trade wars when it lowers their income and costs them heavily on consumer goods. Farmers and their families are no longer the hicks of yore. 

Indiana has been nearly even in approval-disapproval numbers for President Trump and clearly less D than Michigan, Wisconsin, or even Ohio. Republicans could get the same WTF shock in 2018 and 2020 from Indiana that Democrats got from Iowa in 2014 (election of Joni Ernst) and 2016 (smashing rejection of Hillary Clinton).