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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12
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Author Topic: IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12  (Read 3786 times)
IceSpear
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« on: August 15, 2018, 10:34:07 am »

New Poll: Indiana Senator by Trafalgar Group on 2018-08-07

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2018, 10:34:48 am »

Yes, this is apparently real. lol
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2018, 10:38:56 am »

What is this firm?

It seems, well, junk!
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Galaxie
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2018, 10:39:04 am »

#DonnellyOver50
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2018, 10:39:44 am »

What happened?
Was Brown caught on tape kicking a puppy?

What is this firm?

It seems, well, junk!

Actually it's a Republican firm.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2018, 10:42:47 am »

Tossup ---> Tilt D

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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2018, 10:47:12 am »

haha wow
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2018, 10:52:57 am »

Wut?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2018, 10:53:41 am »
« Edited: August 15, 2018, 11:10:36 am by Brittain33 »

Lol. I believe this is a Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want.
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Atlas Slipped
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2018, 10:58:07 am »

Lol. Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want. November ain't gonna be pretty.

You are the most insufferable hack in the history of insufferable hacks.
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2018, 10:58:44 am »

Lol. Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want. November ain't gonna be pretty.

I think it'll be very pretty. November's usually a very pleasant time of the year.
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#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2018, 10:59:22 am »

Que es esto?
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2018, 11:01:51 am »

Many HUGE red flags in the crosstabs for this one suggesting it is not what it looks like:

1. Donnelly doing better among men than women is questionable at best.
2. Braun winning 89% of 18-25 year olds and 1% of 56-61 year olds.
3. Absolutely zero undecideds in CD-1 (I know this is heavily D district, but nowhere in the country is that inelastic)
4. The crosstabs across CD in general are pretty insane.
5. Nearly the exact same undecided movement in the Donnelly Votes Yes crosstab despite massive sample size making that nearly statistically impossible.
6. If these numbers were anywhere close to the truth, Donnelly would have released an internal by now.

Likely explanation: this poll has a wildly small sample size that was weighted to the massive number they report (this would explain #5). The numbers are probably far from accurate, and this poll probably has an ulterior motive.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2018, 11:04:48 am »

Are people forgetting who the pollster is? My goodness, the rush to scrape for any positive Dem news is kinda embarrassing.
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Skye
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« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2018, 11:05:53 am »

Wow, Trafalgar has Donelly up by that much? Sound the alarm!
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: August 15, 2018, 11:06:55 am »

JUNK POLL
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Pyro
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« Reply #16 on: August 15, 2018, 11:07:50 am »

Excuse me, what?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: August 15, 2018, 11:08:13 am »

The dog sweat coming from Andrew and hofoid is hilarious. This is obviously an outlier, but almost all of Trafalgar's polls overestimated Republicans in the past. And I'm pretty sure both of them loved to flaunt Trafalgar polls when they showed results they liked.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: August 15, 2018, 11:08:47 am »

Are people forgetting who the pollster is? My goodness, the rush to scrape for any positive Dem news is kinda embarrassing.

This pollster was great in 2016 and has been excellent since in Republican primaries. However, they have not been great since 2016 in general elections, they were off by a lot in Virginia. That being said they need to lean hard to the right, then again this poll is ridiculous to the point where I don't even know if its real or like a test run.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2018, 11:16:43 am »

This is clearly an outlier but this firm is known more for pro-GOP bias
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #20 on: August 15, 2018, 11:19:09 am »

I don't believe Donnelly is ahead by this much. I want to see another poll first. Keeping it at Tossup.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #21 on: August 15, 2018, 11:30:45 am »

Eh, no.

The only intention of this R pollster is to make it look the race is over, so that Dem voters stay home.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: August 15, 2018, 11:34:33 am »

Eh, no.

The only intention of this R pollster is to make it look the race is over, so that Dem voters stay home.

That would be the opposite of their strategy in 2016 and 2017 then, lol.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #23 on: August 15, 2018, 11:35:29 am »

This sort of result would not be unsurprising. The Midwest is going to be difficult for Republicans this year.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #24 on: August 15, 2018, 11:35:44 am »

Lmao what
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