IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 30, 2022, 09:55:09 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4
Author Topic: IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12  (Read 5190 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,849
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 15, 2018, 10:34:07 AM »

New Poll: Indiana Senator by Trafalgar Group on 2018-08-07

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,849
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2018, 10:34:48 AM »

Yes, this is apparently real. lol
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,999
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2018, 10:38:56 AM »

What is this firm?

It seems, well, junk!
Logged
Galaxie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2018, 10:39:04 AM »

#DonnellyOver50
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,233
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2018, 10:39:44 AM »

What happened?
Was Brown caught on tape kicking a puppy?

What is this firm?

It seems, well, junk!

Actually it's a Republican firm.
Logged
Yellowhammer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,766
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2018, 10:42:47 AM »

Tossup ---> Tilt D

Logged
Devout Centrist
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,516
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2018, 10:47:12 AM »

haha wow
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,400
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2018, 10:52:57 AM »

Wut?
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,525


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2018, 10:53:41 AM »
« Edited: August 15, 2018, 11:10:36 AM by Brittain33 »

Lol. I believe this is a Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want.
Logged
Modok
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,154
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2018, 10:58:07 AM »

Lol. Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want. November ain't gonna be pretty.

You are the most insufferable hack in the history of insufferable hacks.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,337
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2018, 10:58:44 AM »

Lol. Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want. November ain't gonna be pretty.

I think it'll be very pretty. November's usually a very pleasant time of the year.
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,299


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2018, 10:59:22 AM »

Que es esto?
Logged
Pollster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,272


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2018, 11:01:51 AM »

Many HUGE red flags in the crosstabs for this one suggesting it is not what it looks like:

1. Donnelly doing better among men than women is questionable at best.
2. Braun winning 89% of 18-25 year olds and 1% of 56-61 year olds.
3. Absolutely zero undecideds in CD-1 (I know this is heavily D district, but nowhere in the country is that inelastic)
4. The crosstabs across CD in general are pretty insane.
5. Nearly the exact same undecided movement in the Donnelly Votes Yes crosstab despite massive sample size making that nearly statistically impossible.
6. If these numbers were anywhere close to the truth, Donnelly would have released an internal by now.

Likely explanation: this poll has a wildly small sample size that was weighted to the massive number they report (this would explain #5). The numbers are probably far from accurate, and this poll probably has an ulterior motive.
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,031


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2018, 11:04:48 AM »

Are people forgetting who the pollster is? My goodness, the rush to scrape for any positive Dem news is kinda embarrassing.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,570
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2018, 11:05:53 AM »

Wow, Trafalgar has Donelly up by that much? Sound the alarm!
Logged
Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,548
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 15, 2018, 11:06:55 AM »

JUNK POLL
Logged
Pyro
PyroTheFox
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,629
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 15, 2018, 11:07:50 AM »

Excuse me, what?
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,849
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 15, 2018, 11:08:13 AM »

The dog sweat coming from Andrew and hofoid is hilarious. This is obviously an outlier, but almost all of Trafalgar's polls overestimated Republicans in the past. And I'm pretty sure both of them loved to flaunt Trafalgar polls when they showed results they liked.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,400
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 15, 2018, 11:08:47 AM »

Are people forgetting who the pollster is? My goodness, the rush to scrape for any positive Dem news is kinda embarrassing.

This pollster was great in 2016 and has been excellent since in Republican primaries. However, they have not been great since 2016 in general elections, they were off by a lot in Virginia. That being said they need to lean hard to the right, then again this poll is ridiculous to the point where I don't even know if its real or like a test run.
Logged
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2018, 11:16:43 AM »

This is clearly an outlier but this firm is known more for pro-GOP bias
Logged
PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,139
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 15, 2018, 11:19:09 AM »

I don't believe Donnelly is ahead by this much. I want to see another poll first. Keeping it at Tossup.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,171
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 15, 2018, 11:30:45 AM »

Eh, no.

The only intention of this R pollster is to make it look the race is over, so that Dem voters stay home.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,849
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 15, 2018, 11:34:33 AM »

Eh, no.

The only intention of this R pollster is to make it look the race is over, so that Dem voters stay home.

That would be the opposite of their strategy in 2016 and 2017 then, lol.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,481
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 15, 2018, 11:35:29 AM »

This sort of result would not be unsurprising. The Midwest is going to be difficult for Republicans this year.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,109
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 15, 2018, 11:35:44 AM »

Lmao what
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 13 queries.