OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[BuckeyeNut]

My opinion will change, but right now, gun to my head, Moreno wins the GOP nomination, and Brown wins by 2%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have to wait for an Emerson poll ANYWAYS

[Zedonathin2020]

Fresh hot batch of hypotheticals coming in:

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1674556111985229825?s=46&t=XC6qQa4...

[SnowLabrador]

Fresh hot batch of hypotheticals coming in:

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1674556111985229825?s=46&t=XC6qQa4...

Given that polling in Ohio overestimated Democrats even in 2022, seeing Brown up by just four against Moreno isn't exactly reassuring.

[bagelman]

Considering the track record of Ohio polling, these polls suck and point to a Lean R race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Considering the track record of Ohio polling, these polls suck and point to a Lean R race.

You say that and yet the final Atlas polling average of the three most recent polls for the 2022 Senate race nailed Vance’s winning margin.  In the Governor’s race, the margin was only off by 1% (over-estimated DeWine’s margin by one point).  

I think it’s way too early to speak with any kind of certainty about this race, especially if Republicans nominate a dumpster fire candidate like Bernie Moreno or Vivek Ramaswamy.  I could also easily see Dolan being a spoiler who costs LaRose the primary.  

[Sir Mohamed]

Fresh hot batch of hypotheticals coming in:

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1674556111985229825?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo0E2oJiVU7vDA

Not that bad, though not great either. Still way too early, though I wouldn't put much stock into any OH poll. Certainly not any poll before October 2024, which always showed the Dem in a strong position that he ended up being. This is for sure Brown's toughest race so far.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT and OH and AZ are Lean D like WI 2012 Baldwin and Brown overpolled when DeWine and Johnson aren't on the ballot that's why we won the WI judge race by 11


Last poll had Brown +2 why because no DeWine
Vance and Johnson had 40% but for some reason in a Midterms they both Overpolled with IAN, Johnson is DOA in 28 with Sara Rodriguez in a Prez Edays and FL, TX and MO are wave insurance, Ford was down 11 late ALLRED being down 5 is okay, he isn't  gonna lead before Eday just like Beshear did on Eday he is gonna win when all the votes are counted Beshear won by 39K votes the same with all wave insurance if an R leads that's okay we can beat Rs with VBM in wave insurance on Eday in a Prez race not Midterms

The only seat Rs can count on is WV NAACP don't have chapters in IA, IN or WV but plenty in SC, NC, FL, TX IL, CA, NY, GA, WI, PA, MO and MI Rs don't go like McCain did to NAACP because of reparations

[windjammer]

Considering the track record of Ohio polling, these polls suck and point to a Lean R race.

You say that and yet the final Atlas polling average of the three most recent polls for the 2022 Senate race nailed Vance’s winning margin.  In the Governor’s race, the margin was only off by 1% (over-estimated DeWine’s margin by one point).  

I think it’s way too early to speak with any kind of certainty about this race, especially if Republicans nominate a dumpster fire candidate like Bernie Moreno or Vivek Ramaswamy.  I could also easily see Dolan being a spoiler who costs LaRose the primary.  

X,
By which margin should Biden win the presidential election (national vote) to let Brown win against Larose?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Considering the track record of Ohio polling, these polls suck and point to a Lean R race.

You say that and yet the final Atlas polling average of the three most recent polls for the 2022 Senate race nailed Vance’s winning margin.  In the Governor’s race, the margin was only off by 1% (over-estimated DeWine’s margin by one point).  

I think it’s way too early to speak with any kind of certainty about this race, especially if Republicans nominate a dumpster fire candidate like Bernie Moreno or Vivek Ramaswamy.  I could also easily see Dolan being a spoiler who costs LaRose the primary.  

X,
By which margin should Biden win the presidential election (national vote) to let Brown win against Larose?

There's no DeWine on the ballot that's why Vance won

[Zedonathin2020]

As if LaRose’s run couldn’t be MORE obvious

https://twitter.com/franklarose/status/1676244499888996353?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1678390677531422721

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown isn't losing Dolan isn't Vance

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1679221427013025792

[Roll Roons]

A bloody primary can only help Brown, but the eventual nominee will be lucky that Ohio's primary is in March and not August.

Vance would have done at least a point or two worse if Ohio had a late primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A bloody primary can only help Brown, but the eventual nominee will be lucky that Ohio's primary is in March and not August.

Vance would have done at least a point or two worse if Ohio had a late primary.

Lol Vance won because of DeWine won by 25 he totally underpolled DeWine by 20 and it was a Midterm do you see the poll showing Brown ahead Users act like OH is IA it's not it's 12% blk IA is 2% blk

Johnson defied expectations too he won by 1 pt I'm a Midterms, it's a Prez race higher D voters and Johnson is DOOMED in 28 against Sara Rodriguez

Ryan would be fav to beat Vance in a Prez yr that's why he asked Brown if he was sure he was running for reelection and Brown said yes if Brown was certain of def he would have retired in lieu of Ryan

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1679221427013025792

Anyone that associates with No Labels should never be elected into office. Somehow despite both major parties being terrible, they've managed to combine the worst aspects of both of them into one elitist corporatist oligarchical platform.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users act like Vance won by 25 no he didn't he won by 5 and Johnson won by 1 and the Rs failed to defeat a single D inc within MOE CCM, Kelly, Hassan and Warnock

All incumbent except Cruz, Hawley, Scott, and Manchin are pretty much safe

The last poll had Tester +/-5 against Rosedale

OH has voted with IA but it's because Ds had Tom Harkins he is no longer in the S so IA is triaged

IA has 2 percentage pts blk and OH 12 percentage pts that's why Brown is leading

[windjammer]

So there are some issues on the ballot and early voting has started.

What is going to be the final outcome ?

[JMT]

LaRose is in:

https://twitter.com/franklarose/status/1680883793140350976?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[Zedonathin2020]

LaRose is in:

https://twitter.com/franklarose/status/1680883793140350976?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

Better late than ever I guess

Probably still Lean Moreno

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its Lean D without DeWine on the ballot Biden was down in the same poll 45/33 while Brown was up 46/44 on Dolan

[kwabbit]

Any reason to think Moreno's support is durable? He didn't do that well in 2022 and will face a united front of elected officials. IMO he's only the frontrunner now since no one else was running.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Any reason to think Moreno's support is durable? He didn't do that well in 2022 and will face a united front of elected officials. IMO he's only the frontrunner now since no one else was running.

Yes:

1) He is the only Trumpist in the race and only dropped out last time at Trump’s request as a show of loyalty.  

2) Dolan is not some random also-ran.  He is a strong candidate with a real base of support who is likely to easily get double-digit support and is essentially guaranteed to be well-funded throughout the primary campaign.  He won’t come close to winning, but he basically tied for second last time running as the closest thing anti-Trump candidate in an Ohio statewide Republican primary.  He might very well have eeked out a win had Trump not made an endorsement.  

Almost literally 100% of his votes would otherwise go to LaRose.  If he only takes ~15% (which seems pretty likely although his range is probably 10%-25% with 15% - 20% being by far the most likely outcome), that could easily give Moreno the win.  Moreno has his base all to himself while LaRose has to compete with Dolan for the same voters without offending the Trump crowd anymore than he already has (they’re very suspicious of LaRose, but not extremely hostile the way they are towards Dolan).  Thus, there is a very real possibility of Dolan spoiling the primary and letting Moreno win with a plurality.

3) Trump will not endorse LaRose or Dolan.  50-50 whether he sits it out while implicitly making it clear he wants Moreno or actually endorses Moreno.  If Trump formally endorses Moreno, then that’s the ballgame; LaRose is toast and there will be nothing he can do about it.

[SnowLabrador]

Any reason to think Moreno's support is durable? He didn't do that well in 2022 and will face a united front of elected officials. IMO he's only the frontrunner now since no one else was running.

Yes:

1) He is the only Trumpist in the race and only dropped out last time at Trump’s request as a show of loyalty.  

2) Dolan is not some random also-ran.  He is a strong candidate with a real base of support who is likely to easily get double-digit support and is essentially guaranteed to be well-funded throughout the primary campaign.  He won’t come close to winning, but he basically tied for second last time running as the closest thing anti-Trump candidate in an Ohio statewide Republican primary.  He might very well have eeked out a win had Trump not made an endorsement.  

Almost literally 100% of his votes would otherwise go to LaRose.  If he only takes ~15% (which seems pretty likely although his range is probably 10%-25% with 15% - 20% being by far the most likely outcome), that could easily give Moreno the win.  Moreno has his base all to himself while LaRose has to compete with Dolan for the same voters without offending the Trump crowd anymore than he already has (they’re very suspicious of LaRose, but not extremely hostile the way they are towards Dolan).  Thus, there is a very real possibility of Dolan spoiling the primary and letting Moreno win with a plurality.

3) Trump will not endorse LaRose or Dolan.  50-50 whether he sits it out while implicitly making it clear he wants Moreno or actually endorses Moreno.  If Trump formally endorses Moreno, then that’s the ballgame; LaRose is toast and there will be nothing he can do about it.

How do you feel about the general election if it's Brown vs. Moreno?