🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

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ZDF exit poll
SPD 26
Union 24
Greens 14.5
FDP 12
AFD 10
LINKE 5

Historically speaking, has ZDF had more accurate exit polls? This would certainly be a preferred result.

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What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

Maybe save that take until we have some actual numbers.

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The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

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The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

Not on the Zeit website? They’re at 376 seats.

(Although practically speaking I think traffic light is still far more likely.)

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The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

Not on the Zeit website? They’re at 376 seats.

(Although practically speaking I think traffic light is still far more likely.)

Out of 756. Reminder that the total number fluctuates through the overhang rules. The right in this scenario has 380. I never thought R2G was that possible, and even this rosy result is likely to trend downwards through Linke.

Gotcha — still not impossible, but incredibly unlikely.

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as i thought, grand coalition remain, this time with spd prime-minister

Why? CSU will have more seats

Assuming the CDU get more seats (far from certain), Jamaica seems more likely than a Grand Coalition.

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Looks like every updated projection gets better for the SPD. They've probably got this. FDP also going up, and Greens and AfD are going down.

Still no chance of an SPD-FDP-Linke coalition?

They wouldn’t have the seats. (Among other problems. But such a hypothetical is all but mathematically eliminated.)

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Looks like every updated projection gets better for the SPD. They've probably got this. FDP also going up, and Greens and AfD are going down.

Still no chance of an SPD-FDP-Linke coalition?

There never was one. FDP and Die Linke are just absolutely incompatible.

Lindner and Wissler both seem young, cool and full of new ideas. Was hoping they could put together some kind of libertarian socialist coalition.

Do you think the FDP and Linke’s economic ideas are at all reconcilable? (Hint: they aren’t.)

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Lindner says the Greens and FDP should first hold discussions together about the third partner. Could be big news.

I understand why the FDP might prefer a Jamaica coalition, but why would the Greens? Do they think they’d have more negotiating leverage than with the SPD?

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Can anyone explain to me why Piraten is still a thing?

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Aurich-Emden with 43,3% Zweitstimme for the SPD. I believe it was the SPD's strongest constituency in 2017 too.

Freiburg Green GAIN from CDU

Freiburg was flipped by a 26-year-old candidate; CDU is in third there.

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I’m amazed the NPD are still allowed to exist at all. Them getting a seat in the Bundestag would probably be the final straw.