Gillibrand could be in serious trouble.

[tpfkaw]

According to SUSA, DioGuardi leads 18-34-year-olds by 37 points.

I guess it makes sense to just ignore the crosstabs . . .

[cinyc]

Another very Republican sample... but still... what the hell...

Indeed. 2008 exits had it at 50D-26R-25I while this is 44D-35R-20I. This is going to be a different electorate from 2008 of course, but I find it difficult to believe it's as different as SUSA seems to think.

Why is everyone, including Nate Silver, comparing turnout for Presidential election years to the recently released New York polls?  2006 would be better for comparison.  Those exits were 47D-27I-25R.   The Dem percentage is off by a whopping 3 points, which is perfectly reasonable given 2006 was a Democratic year and this year isn't.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I probably won't vote for Schumer. There's no real reason to.

maybe you'd be interested in voting Credico?

[Meeker]

Another very Republican sample... but still... what the hell...

Indeed. 2008 exits had it at 50D-26R-25I while this is 44D-35R-20I. This is going to be a different electorate from 2008 of course, but I find it difficult to believe it's as different as SUSA seems to think.

Why is everyone, including Nate Silver, comparing turnout for Presidential election years to the recently released New York polls?  2006 would be better for comparison.  Those exits were 47D-27I-25R.   The Dem percentage is off by a whopping 3 points, which is perfectly reasonable given 2006 was a Democratic year and this year isn't.

To be honest I only went with 2008 numbers because I had them lying around and didn't want to look up 2006 ones.

I could believe 44D but I think 35R and 20I are a little fishy.

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI - 2004 was 45D, 29R, 26D

[Eraserhead]

I probably won't vote for Schumer. There's no real reason to.

maybe you'd be interested in voting Credico?

I thought about it but I heard that he threatened to endorse Paladino if he didn't get on the Democratic ballot. Anyone who would endorse Paladino under any circumstances won't get a vote from me.

[cinyc]

Another very Republican sample... but still... what the hell...

Indeed. 2008 exits had it at 50D-26R-25I while this is 44D-35R-20I. This is going to be a different electorate from 2008 of course, but I find it difficult to believe it's as different as SUSA seems to think.

Why is everyone, including Nate Silver, comparing turnout for Presidential election years to the recently released New York polls?  2006 would be better for comparison.  Those exits were 47D-27I-25R.   The Dem percentage is off by a whopping 3 points, which is perfectly reasonable given 2006 was a Democratic year and this year isn't.

To be honest I only went with 2008 numbers because I had them lying around and didn't want to look up 2006 ones.

I could believe 44D but I think 35R and 20I are a little fishy.

It depends how the question is worded.  In 2006, the exit polls asked "No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a: [Democrat/Republican/Independent/Something Else]".  That methodology allows for more people to self-identify with a particular party than if the pollster asks something like: "Are you registered to vote as a [Democrat/Republican/Something Else/Not in a Party]."  During a wave, more "independents" are going to self-identify with the party riding the wave than declare themselves independents.

[cinyc]

Just FYI - 2004 was 45D, 29R, 26D

There was no exit poll in 2002.  

In 2000, it was 45D-28R-27I.   (Sen race; Hillary Clinton beat Lazio.)
In 1998, it was  41D-34R-25I.   (Gov race; Pataki won re-election in a landslide. )
In 1996, it was 42D-29R-28I.    (Pres race; Clinton won Reelection.)
In 1994, it was 39D-32R-29I.    (Gov race;Pataki squeaked by Cuomo.)
In 1992, it was 42D-32R-26I    (Presidential Race)/ 43D-32R-25I (Senate Race; D'Amato won reelection.)

Shifts happen.  The mid-term electorate is usually less Democratic and more Repubican than the Presidential year electorate.  Republicans ending up in the 30s in NY mid-term elections isn't unheard of.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I probably won't vote for Schumer. There's no real reason to.

maybe you'd be interested in voting Credico?

I thought about it but I heard that he threatened to endorse Paladino if he didn't get on the Democratic ballot. Anyone who would endorse Paladino under any circumstances won't get a vote from me.

Well Credico did get knocked off the Democratic ballot but he didn't endorse Paladino so clearly he wasn't serious about that. He is a comedian, after all. Plus the only source I could come up with for that was one line in a Daily News blog that misspelled "Demcrats".

[Smash255]

Just FYI - 2004 was 45D, 29R, 26D

There was no exit poll in 2002.  

In 2000, it was 45D-28R-27I.   (Sen race; Hillary Clinton beat Lazio.)
In 1998, it was  41D-34R-25I.   (Gov race; Pataki won re-election in a landslide. )
In 1996, it was 42D-29R-28I.    (Pres race; Clinton won Reelection.)
In 1994, it was 39D-32R-29I.    (Gov race;Pataki squeaked by Cuomo.)
In 1992, it was 42D-32R-26I    (Presidential Race)/ 43D-32R-25I (Senate Race; D'Amato won reelection.)

Shifts happen.  The mid-term electorate is usually less Democratic and more Repubican than the Presidential year electorate.  Republicans ending up in the 30s in NY mid-term elections isn't unheard of.

The Dems registration advantage is larger now than it use to be.  It is currently about 25 points was about 20 points in 2000, 16 points in 96.

I agree that its not going to match the 50-26-24 08 turnout or the 50-25-25 registration numbers, but a 24/25 point advantage down to 9??   No way

[cinyc]

Quinnipiac has Gillibrand up by 6, 48-42. 

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1505

[Oakvale]

Apparently Siena has a poll coming out with with Cuomo ahead by 33 points, and Gilibrand by 24.

Now, admittedly, it's registered voters, not likely, so it's going to be exaggerated, but is the fabled "enthusiasm gap" worth ~25 points?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/09/23/very_different_poll_results_in_new_york.html

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Apparently Siena has a poll coming out with with Cuomo ahead by 33 points, and Gilibrand by 24.

Now, admittedly, it's registered voters, not likely, so it's going to be exaggerated, but is the fabled "enthusiasm gap" worth ~25 points?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/09/23/very_different_poll_results_in_new_york.html

No, but then, Gillibrand is not seriously ahead by 24. Single digits would be a reasonable guess, though, considering "2010 REPUBLICAN YEAR OMGZ."

Stupid worthless pollers making stupid worthless RV polls.