Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Tender Branson]

I know there is a mountain range and history dating back to WW1;  but why does Romania have that distinct difference between the east and south voting left and the northwest voting right?

Is it a case like Poland where the northwest is more developed because it was part of Austria-Hungary or something?

More-or-less yeah.

Transylvania (north-west of the Carpathian mountain range) belonged to Austria-Hungary and had Hungarian and Austro-German settlers and culture (see current President of Romania).

It also benefitted from Austro-Hungarian infrastructure expansion and tourism at the time.

The Wallachia and Greater Moldova at the time were underdeveloped in comparison (and still are).

[RGM2609]

I know there is a mountain range and history dating back to WW1;  but why does Romania have that distinct difference between the east and south voting left and the northwest voting right?

Is it a case like Poland where the northwest is more developed because it was part of Austria-Hungary or something?

I would also mention, besides what Tender said, that the structures of the former Communist Party were, for a lot of reasons but mostly geography, stronger in the south and east than in Transylvania. When Iliescu and his party inherited those structures, they found it easier to assess their dominance in the now red regions.

Another important thing is that the map is a bit misleading - in some of this places PSD got meaningless pluraties because PNL and USR split votes.

[RGM2609]

Also the negotiations for a new coalition are reportedly progressing fast, and the spliting in the Cabinet positions was reportedly already established: PNL will get 8, USR 5 and UDMR 3. PNL will, alledgedly, get Health, Finances, Economy, Justice, Internal Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Regional Development and Defense. USR wants Education, Environment, Energy, European Funds.

[crals]

PMP didn't make it in the end? What are the odds that UDMR will allow meaningful change?

[RGM2609]

PMP didn't make it in the end? What are the odds that UDMR will allow meaningful change?

No. The authorities published higher numbers for them than what the precincts reported. The whole thing is just a mess, and some recounts may happen, but PMP will most likely not make it.

I think UDMR will allow anything to happen as long as it does not affect them and their feuds and they get some cultural victories and pork. However, there are a lot of necessary reforms that negatively affect UDMR.

[RGM2609]

There are some rumours that Bucharest is going to go into full lockdown now that the election is over. The situation there is disastreous as the healthcare system collapses under the burden of thousands of daily cases

[Mike88]

How is the PMP debacle going? Are recounts expected?

[RGM2609]

How is the PMP debacle going? Are recounts expected?

So far, everyone is waiting for the count to finally end so the number of votes needed for PMP to make it is clear. Recounts are rather unprecedented unless there are clear suspicions of fraud however.

[RGM2609]

I have been trying to come up with a headline to describe this election. Here are my options -

A. Rural Romania slaps edgy urbanites in the face

B. The silent majority is silent because it does not care

C. The ultimate Triumph of the short attention spam

Probably if you combine these you would get a pretty good description of this mess. Anyone else with better ideas lol?

[FredLindq]

I know there is a mountain range and history dating back to WW1;  but why does Romania have that distinct difference between the east and south voting left and the northwest voting right?

Is it a case like Poland where the northwest is more developed because it was part of Austria-Hungary or something?

More-or-less yeah.

Transylvania (north-west of the Carpathian mountain range) belonged to Austria-Hungary and had Hungarian and Austro-German settlers and culture (see current President of Romania).

It also benefitted from Austro-Hungarian infrastructure expansion and tourism at the time.

The Wallachia and Greater Moldova at the time were underdeveloped in comparison (and still are).

How are the relations between Hungary i.e. Fidez and UDMR and between Hungary and PNL (string in former Austria-Hungary areas)?

[RGM2609]

I know there is a mountain range and history dating back to WW1;  but why does Romania have that distinct difference between the east and south voting left and the northwest voting right?

Is it a case like Poland where the northwest is more developed because it was part of Austria-Hungary or something?

More-or-less yeah.

Transylvania (north-west of the Carpathian mountain range) belonged to Austria-Hungary and had Hungarian and Austro-German settlers and culture (see current President of Romania).

It also benefitted from Austro-Hungarian infrastructure expansion and tourism at the time.

The Wallachia and Greater Moldova at the time were underdeveloped in comparison (and still are).

How are the relations between Hungary i.e. Fidez and UDMR and between Hungary and PNL (string in former Austria-Hungary areas)?

I believe that the relationship between Fidesz and UDMR used to be rough. Basically the Hungarian government believed UDMR to be too moderate and gave up Hungarian interests for pork, so they tried to fund and promote more radical alternatives. Somewhere in the early 2010s, Fidesz realized that UDMR had too strong of a grip over the community and the Romanian party had a change in leadership, with Kelemen Hunor being more open towards mending the relationship. Now, they co-operate but Fidesz is still trying to radicalize UDMR from within.

The relationship between Fidesz and PNL is not that bad - PNL and UDMR have a history of working together and are part of the same political family (even through UDMR would work with literally anyone, the two parties seem to get along better) and PNL has generally avoided promoting extreme nationalist rhetoric like PSD did (through there were some exceptions, a statement by Iohannis accusing Hungarians of wanting to steal Transylvania stands out). So no notable conflict between the two, and PNL-UDMR coalitions are common at a local level in the North East. Also Hungarians who live in Romania despise PSD and like PNL so that is a factor too

[Estrella]

The relationship between Fidesz and PNL is not that bad - PNL and UDMR have a history of working together and are part of the same political family (even through UDMR would work with literally anyone, the two parties seem to get along better) and PNL has generally avoided promoting extreme nationalist rhetoric like PSD did (through there were some exceptions, a statement by Iohannis accusing Hungarians of wanting to steal Transylvania stands out). So no notable conflict between the two, and PNL-UDMR coalitions are common at a local level in the North East. Also Hungarians who live in Romania despise PSD and like PNL so that is a factor too

While Hungarian population has always despised PSD* (more so than UDMR politicians), they voted for them on occassion when they were seen as lesser evil. The most obvious example of this is the runoff of the 2000 presidential election between Iliescu and an even more psychopathic version of Ceaușescu Vadim. Harghita, the county with the largest Hungarian majority, gave Iliescu something like 7% in the first round and 90% in the second round.

* after all, the flashpoint of the Revolution was the arrest of a Hungarian priest

[RGM2609]

The relationship between Fidesz and PNL is not that bad - PNL and UDMR have a history of working together and are part of the same political family (even through UDMR would work with literally anyone, the two parties seem to get along better) and PNL has generally avoided promoting extreme nationalist rhetoric like PSD did (through there were some exceptions, a statement by Iohannis accusing Hungarians of wanting to steal Transylvania stands out). So no notable conflict between the two, and PNL-UDMR coalitions are common at a local level in the North East. Also Hungarians who live in Romania despise PSD and like PNL so that is a factor too

While Hungarian population has always despised PSD* (more so than UDMR politicians), they voted for them on occassion when they were seen as lesser evil. The most obvious example of this is the runoff of the 2000 presidential election between Iliescu and an even more psychopathic version of Ceaușescu Vadim. Harghita, the county with the largest Hungarian majority, gave Iliescu something like 7% in the first round and 90% in the second round.

* after all, the flashpoint of the Revolution was the arrest of a Hungarian priest

I mean...Vadim was threatening to deport them, execute them on stadiums, arrest UDMR leaders, forbid them from speaking Hungarian and all sorts of other psychotic statements. I am surprised anyone in those counties voted for Vadim (those are probably the few Romanians there who became ultranationalists)

[RGM2609]

Analysis of exit poll results by CURS-AVANGARDE

(Keep in mind that this exit poll had PNL a few points higher and AUR a few point lower, so these are probably not the exact percentages. However, this is to show the demographic trends and differences -)

Men - PSD 30%, PNL 30%, USR 16%, AUR 6%, UDMR 5%, PMP 5%, PRO 5%
Women - PSD 31%, PNL 29%, USR 17%, UDMR 6%, AUR 5%, PRO 5%, PMP 4%

Youth (18-30) - USR 31%, PNL 28%, PSD 11%, AUR 9%, UDMR 6%, PMP 6%, PRO 6%
Middle-aged (31-60) - PNL 32%, PSD 24%, USR 19%, AUR 6%, PRO 6%, UDMR 5%, PMP 5%
Old (61+) - PSD 52%, PNL 25%, UDMR 6%, USR 5%, PMP 4%, PRO 3%, AUR 2%

Did not graduate high school - PSD 50%, PNL 25%, UDMR 7%, AUR 5%, USR 5%, PRO 4%, PMP 4%
High School graduates - PNL 31%, PSD 29%, USR 13%, AUR 6%, UDMR 6%, PRO 6%, PMP 5%
College graduates - USR 31%, PNL 29%, PSD 17%, PMP 5%, PRO 5%, UDMR 4%, AUR 4%

Also BREAKING - PMP seems to have accepted that it will not get into Parliament. Its leader has just resigned and a Congress will take place soon. It remains to be seen whether there is a path ahead for this party.

[CumbrianLefty]

AUR support highest amongst the young - was that expected?

[RGM2609]

AUR support highest amongst the young - was that expected?

No, but I suppose it makes sense. Older people do not use social media that much, and social media was truly the cause of AUR. And young nationalists would be more inclined to a radical solution than old ones I would say.

My sense is that there is a lot of anger among young people who did not go to college or/and who live in poor communities without the possibility of moving out of there, anger which PSD has failed to exploit before.

[Beagle]

Indeed, my second- and third-hand impression is that AUR ran a really slick campaign on social media (at least in part directed by Bobby Păunescu), but also that they had a suspiciously high budget for premium glossy leaflets, campaign events and the like. Their meme game was strong, but they also had a heavy street presence, especially at Covid protests. RGM2609 will correct me if I'm wrong.

[RGM2609]

Indeed, my second- and third-hand impression is that AUR ran a really slick campaign on social media (at least in part directed by Bobby Păunescu), but also that they had a suspiciously high budget for premium glossy leaflets, campaign events and the like. Their meme game was strong, but they also had a heavy street presence, especially at Covid protests. RGM2609 will correct me if I'm wrong.

Yes, that is correct. The thing about them was - unless you were already a part of the conspiracy or nationalist circles or at least showing interest on them - you would have never seen their posts. It is a great example of the social media bubble we are all in. I have walked past their posters a few times in the month before and I was wondering who they were and who was funding them before moving on thinking it does not matter anyway (big mistake lol). Meanwhile, the people with far right tendencies were slowly being convinced to vote AUR. Their campaign was very good at targeting exactly the people who they needed while leaving everyone else in the dark as to who they are. (went off topic a bit, sorry).

Also I stumbled across the news channel Paunescu owns and I saw pundits signing praises to AUR. Not sure how much it will help tho, B1 is the least watched news station in the country.

[RGM2609]

BREAKING - PNL has decided the name of our likely new Prime Minister, and he is Finance Minister Florin Citu. He was approved by the party leadership and will soon be nominated by President Iohannis.

[RGM2609]

99.98% of the vote is in, hopefully this time nothing crazy happens with the results, so here they are -

Social Democratic Party - 28.9%
National Liberal Party - 25.2%
Save Romania Union - 15.4%
Alliance for the Unity of Romanians - 9.1%
Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania - 5.7%

Under the threshold -
People's Movement Party - 4.8%
PRO Romania - 4.1%
Romanian Ecologist Party - 1.1%
Party of Humanist Power - 1%
Greater Romania Party - 0.6%
Others - 4%

And the results in some key places -

Bucharest -
Save Romania Union - 29.4%
Social Democratic Party - 26.2%
National Liberal Party - 21.5%
People's Movement Party - 5.6%

Abroad -
Save Romania Union - 32.6%
National Liberal Party - 24.9%
Alliance for the Unity of Romanians - 23.2%
People's Movement Party - 8.5%

Cluj -
National Liberal Party - 32.4%
Save Romania Union - 31.1%
Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania - 11.2%
Social Democratic Party - 10.6%

[Mike88]

Overseas results map:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1336759473059336196

AUR won Italy, Germany, Greece and Cyprus, while USR won most states in the EU. PNL only prevailed in Spain and Portugal. USR dominates the rest of the countries worldwide.

[RGM2609]

When I first wrote here about AUR, I was not expecting them to get 3%, much less 9%. It was a shock for me to see them surpass old, establishment parties like PMP and PRO by hundreds of thousands. In my defense, political pundits, people who are paid to see these things coming, did not either.

Ever since its shocking performance, some theories are starting to emerge to explain it. The low turnout, the awful way in which PNL managed the pandemic and a weird conspiracy suggesting AUR to be a tool of some obscure deep state or of Russian secret services are the leading theories. However, Simion did not appear out of nowhere. PMP has tried to recruit him in the past, he had been a columnist for adevarul, the most read newspaper, and he made headlines after he caused unrest in a cemetery in Harghita county for ethnic reasons. And Simion is not the only leading figure of AUR. There is also the legionary journalist, the anti-mask lawyer, a writer of misogynistic books, a former FSN member who beat up people at the Revolution and a lot more. This party has attracted a lot of shady figures, so many that a lot of its earlier fans have started disliking it. There is even a group on Facebook of tens of thousands who say they are disappointed by AUR.

Now why have people voted for this weird, shady party? A lot of it comes down to how PNL managed the pandemic, by imposing restrictions, communicating poorly and making people feel like they live in a dictatorship. They have ignored a lot of the economic hardships common people went through during the crisis. Thus, these people felt like AUR was the only party speaking to them.

The current anxiety in the society has fueled AUR, with people afraid of what the other parties might do if they are elected, such as impose another lockdown. However, all European countries have a nationalist, traditionalist party. After Dragnea was imprisoned, PSD reoriented itself and its image towards a party of experts, which care towards welfare. Thus, those who support such values were left without a party to vote for, as PNL has also reoriented from any nationalist statements and PMP still promoted them but much less credibly.

I would argue that AUR voters are not as extremist as their party. They are simply disappointed, hopeless people who live on the frontlines of the battle between tradition and change, and who hope for AUR to protect them and offer them safety and stability.

What is next? Maybe AUR will just hopelessly collapse in a similar manner to Peoples Party - Dan Diaconescu, with its MPs leaving to join one of the mainstream parties. Given that some are already disappointed by it, it is a very real, and likely, possibility. However, it can win even more voters in 2024 if the center-right government screws up. Another fear of mine is that, while AUR will probably go away, the big parties will move the Overton window even further to the right in an effort to capture its voters.

[CumbrianLefty]

Greater Romania Party - 0.6%

So this is still (just about) a thing?

[RGM2609]

Greater Romania Party - 0.6%

So this is still (just about) a thing?

It would appear as if 32k voters still support them. Probably a couple of old nostalgic people. It would have been quite amusing if they prevented AUR from getting in tho.

[RGM2609]

The negotiations for forming a coalition between PNL, USR and UDMR are off to a very rough start. It would appear as if the root of the problems if the position of Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, which is claimed by both former Prime Minister Ludovic Orban and USR leader Dan Barna. USR claims that one party can not have both the Prime Minister and the Speaker in a veritable coalition, and thus it demands that if PNL wants to have the Speaker office so badly, they should give up on having a Prime Minister too. It might be a strategy from USR to force PNL to give them more Ministerial positions in exchange for the Speakership.

Anyway, the battle for Ministries is fierce. PNL wants to hand the Ministries that are complicated to handle during a pandemic and cause massive unpopularity (as they themselves have learned) like Health, Education and Labor over to USR or UDMR, but USR wants the powerful and not-so involved in the pandemic Ministries such as Finance, Justice, Development and Transportation. The end result will probably be a compromise between the two. UDMR does not seem to cause problems in the negotiations, as it only wants Culture and Environment, and may even be willing to take over Health if necessary.