Wanted to see where T-Mac was falling short compared to Herring/Ayala.
Looks like biggest discrepancies come from Independents, but also Moderates.
However, looks like T-Mac also room to grow with nonwhites and blacks, as they're giving Rs similar level of support, but Dems range from 86% for T-Mac to 92% for Ayala. There's more Blanding/undecided voters in the GOV race than the two other races.
Interesting to note too that even among 18-39 voters, Ayala is at +16, while T-Mac is 10%.
Democrats
McAuliffe +96 (97-1)
Herring +94 (96-2)
Ayala +95 (97-2)
Independent
Youngkin +18 (56-38)
Miyares +9 (50-41)
Sears +10 (51-41)
Moderates
McAuliffe +15 (55-40)
Herring +25 (57-32)
Ayala +20 (55-35)
Males
Youngkin +17 (57-40)
Miyares +12 (53-41)
Sears +13 (54-41)
Females
McAuliffe +16 (56-40)
Herring +20 (57-37)
Ayala +18 (57-39)
Whites
Youngkin +16 (57-41)
Miyares +13 (54-41)
Sears +15 (55-40)
Nonwhites
McAuliffe +58 (76-16)
Herring +67 (80-13)
Ayala +67 (82-15)
Blacks
McAuliffe +79 (86-7)
Herring +86 (91-5)
Ayala +86 (92-6)
Age 18-39
McAuliffe +10 (52-42)
Herring +13 (53-40)
Ayala +16 (56-40)
White college +
McAuliffe +10 (54-44)
Herring +13 (53-40)
Ayala +9 (51-42)
Biden voters
McAuliffe +83 (89-6)
Herring +84 (90-6)
Ayala +85 (91-6)
No way Youngkin loses whites with college degrees by 10 and wins. Still whites.
