538 model & poll tracker thread

[Ferguson97]

Nate did say on his last podcast he was done with the model but was in no rush to release it

He's gonna release it when Wonder Woman 1984 gets released in theaters.

Right after GRRM releases The Winds of Winter

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/galendruke/status/1292940631137034242

Okay so who's gonna listen to the whole thing lol

[Ferguson97]

Unpopular opinion but I mostly agree with the model? People are underrating the uncertainty of the race with regard to fraud.

[Ferguson97]

Some of y'all are acting like Biden has a 15 point lead and that the election is tomorrow. The topline numbers of the model seem perfectly rational, and uncertainly inherently decreases the closer you get to the election.

[Ferguson97]

In the vein of ridiculous 538 maps I'm seeing this one:

This is where Brad Pascale uses a monkeys paw to have Trump win Oregon

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1298812940871766017

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1298816716500336641

[Ferguson97]

Just got this beautiful realignment map. Note that even ME-1 goes for Trump.

Biden 271
Trump 267

Oh god I can imagine the pundits salivating already.

But seriously, imagine the panic if Minnesota, New Hampshire, all of Maine, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania vote for Trump... only for Biden to turn it around and win Arizona, Florida, and Michigan. Talk about mood wiplash.

[Ferguson97]

Hell, imagine if that's Biden's map - Michigan + Georgia

So long Rust Belt, hello Sun Belt!

It would even work without GA or MI if he wins NC, although he'd have zero room for error with faithless electors.

That would be horrible for the senate unless trends aren't real for Tina Smith, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen. I would think that the electors would stick with Biden because if one of them voted for someone else, they would receive numerous death threats. Imagine if this happened:

The final election results look like this.

President
Biden/Harris: 270 EV
Trump/Pence: 268 EV

Senate
Democrats: 50 (+3)
Republicans: 50 (-3)
(Republicans win GA-special)


And then when the electoral college votes, we get this:
Biden/Harris: 269 EV
Trump/Pence: 268 EV
Other/Other: 1 EV

The House delegations elect Trump president and the Senate deadlocks 50-50. Pence tries to cast a tie-breaking vote, which is challenged by Democrats in the courts. When it reaches the Supreme Court, the ruling is in favor of Pence, who is then re-elected vice president by the Senate and his own tie-breaking vote. Mitch McConnell is then re-elected Majority Leader by the Senate.

One crazy Biden-state elector changes the outcome of the election from a Democratic trifecta to four more years of Trump/Pence and at least two more years of Majority Leader McConnell.

The riots that would follow this would make those first few nights of Floyd look like nothing...

[Ferguson97]

The new info on the state pages is actually pretty helpful.

It looks like the “economics and incumbency” portion always constitutes 18% of the projections right now, and basically always favors Trump.  I believe this portion will gradually decline to 0 as we get closer to the election.

Of the remaining 82%, it look pretty evenly split betwwen polls versus demographics on average, though it tilts in favor of polls in swing states with more polling.  Unlike the “economics and incumbency” factor, it doesn’t seem like the demographics factors consistently favors on side or the other.

In also looks like the model always allocated undecided voters exactly evenly.

I'd sort of reject the premise that incumbency should always be considered beneficial.

Incumbency didn't help Herbert Hoover.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1304480539676639233

[Ferguson97]

Something has to trend to the right and OR makes sense when you think about it. Biden is a poor fit for both the Progressive "woke" Portland area and cities like Eugene, but will also likely struggle in the Eastern part of the. Is OR still safe D? Yes. But the margin could definately be dissapointing. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions though until we get more polling out of OR.

Personally don't care about the margin in safe D or safe R states. Biden loses Missouri by 7 points and wins Oregon by 9 points? Oh cool. As long as he wins enough swing states.

[Ferguson97]

346: the number of electoral votes Biden will get?

(I know Arizona going Republican is a little unlikely given the rest of the map, but maybe Biden underperforms with Hispanics.)

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1304979308822265857

Is he mixing him up with Nate Cohn and the NYT?

Silver/538 gave Trump like a 1 in 4 chance.

[Ferguson97]

They were wrong in 2016 and could definitely be wrong again.

Come on man, you're smarter than this