Florida in 2016 (user search)
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Poll
Question: Is Florida in Hillary Clinton's bag (assuming Jeb Bush isn't the nominee)?
#1
Probably, but Republicans can still win the election - even without winning Florida.
 
#2
Probably, and if the Republicans lose Florida, they will lose the election.
 
#3
No, it will be a swing state just as it always is (and therefore a possible win for Republicans). Hillary Clinton's strengths are being overrated.
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 87

Author Topic: Florida in 2016  (Read 5097 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: December 21, 2014, 03:54:41 PM »

Ask me again when someone other than Susquehanna Polling gives us a report on Pennsylvania. At the least there will be a hot Senate race.

Scott Walker will consult the Koch syndicate on whether to have a fair vote and count in Wisconsin.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2014, 03:30:28 PM »

With Corbett defeated, Pennsylvania will give only honest opportunities for Republicans to win anything.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2014, 07:13:25 PM »

With Corbett defeated, Pennsylvania will give only honest opportunities for Republicans to win anything.

Well, Pennsylvania was never even in play in the last two decades. Clinton realigned that state (and the whole country) dramatically.
He never even won a majority... geez I like the man but most of the gains he made feel apart under Gore/Kerry/Obama...

Dubya succeeded in getting enough of what had been Perot voters to win in 2000.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: December 25, 2014, 04:18:12 PM »

Virginia, which had not gone for a Democratic nominee for President since 1948 except in the LBJ landslide and never went for Bill Clinton, would go twice for Obama and on that account alone has become big trouble for Republicans.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: December 25, 2014, 05:20:34 PM »

Virginia, which had not gone for a Democratic nominee for President since 1948 except in the LBJ landslide and never went for Bill Clinton, would go twice for Obama and on that account alone has become big trouble for Republicans.
Clinton was basically a moderate Republican. Hell on that note so is Obama.

Interesting view. The definitive moderate Republican may have been Dwight Eisenhower, and I have heard plenty of Democrats praise the Eisenhower Presidency. He went along with Supreme Court rulings that outlawed segregationist practices, stayed clear of the McCarthy bandwagon, and let McCarthy implode.


 
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.

I doubt that Stevenson was a racist; race was not a big issue in either Missouri or West Virginia at the time. It was a big issue in the states in deep green, though. It's amazing that Eisenhower won Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Rhode island twice  -- and no Republican has won all three states in any Presidential election. 
 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2014, 09:52:56 AM »

What states do you define as the Rust Belt?

It's easy to define the former Confederate States as the triangle that includes Virginia in the northeast,  Florida in the southeast, and Texas in the west. However relevant the Confederacy is in the overall heritage of the United States, a political party that casts off 160 electoral votes will have a difficult time winning. Sure, Coolidge won in 1924 without winning a single former-secessionist state, and big -- losing only those and Wisconsin to a third-party nominee. (The former Confederate states had only 136 electoral votes in 1924).

OK, the South is no longer a political monolith. Texas and Virginia straddle regions. Florida has become a microcosm of America.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2015, 08:35:41 PM »

Much of the Hispanic population in Florida is not Cuban. Even among Cuban-American voters in Florida, those associated with the Mariel boat-lift (especially Afro-Cubans) have no political affinity for the earlier, heavily-right-wing wave of Cuban immigrants who fled Castro. 
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pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,849
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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2015, 11:28:07 PM »

Sometime next week we will get a poll of theKeystone State from PPP. I can see the Democratic nominee for President  losing Pennsylvania only while getting 230 or fewer electoral votes.   
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