PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Casey wins 51/47 just like Slotkin, Baldwin, Yawn, Casey is the least likely to fall but you are gonna have the usuals oh McCormick is just too good just  for record Rs lost WI and PA in 22)23 and 0/4 in Edays this seaaon and get ready to go 0/5 in KY G when they lose by more than last time

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

David McCormick is a terrible candidate and the only reason the GOP establishment is simping over him is because he's not pro-Trump. Another example of the flawed reasoning of "anti-Trump = good candidate" and "pro-Trump = bad candidate".

It's probably because he's rich enough where he can achieve parity funding wise if the environment is friendly. A huge part of the GOP's problem in 2022 was that they had to dump so much money into places like Ohio and North Carolina and it detracted from more important races.

Not really. He'll fund enough for the primary, but general Senate elections cost a LOT of money, more than McCormick will likely want to put up.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

Yet another carpetbagger trying to win a senate seat in PA. Is their statewide bench that small to rely on these wealthy out of touch GOP donor circles candidates from another state?

Likely D -> Likely D.

IMO, yes. All of the sitting GOP congressmen are too far right for the median voter. They all represent (outside of Fitzpatrick) safe GOP districts, so they've never had to moderate. Fitzpatrick meanwhile could not win a primary, and even he is a phony 'moderate' 50% of the time. Meanwhile, their only two statewide GOP officeholders are Garrity and DeFoor. Garrity is batsh*t when you actually take a look at what she has said, while DeFoor is just a complete unknown. IMO both won in 2020 because they were both essentially unknown. DeFoor has not made a name for himself, so I guess you could argue he's generic Republican, but at the same time, it seems equally as likely that some stuff could get dug up on him if anyone even bothered to look into him.

Fitzpatrick is by any definition the most moderate member of the House and you think he's too far-right for Pennsylvania?
Would you say the same about the democratic congressmen from Pennsylvania, who are less moderate than a good chunk of the Republican delegation?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

Yet another carpetbagger trying to win a senate seat in PA. Is their statewide bench that small to rely on these wealthy out of touch GOP donor circles candidates from another state?

Likely D -> Likely D.

IMO, yes. All of the sitting GOP congressmen are too far right for the median voter. They all represent (outside of Fitzpatrick) safe GOP districts, so they've never had to moderate. Fitzpatrick meanwhile could not win a primary, and even he is a phony 'moderate' 50% of the time. Meanwhile, their only two statewide GOP officeholders are Garrity and DeFoor. Garrity is batsh*t when you actually take a look at what she has said, while DeFoor is just a complete unknown. IMO both won in 2020 because they were both essentially unknown. DeFoor has not made a name for himself, so I guess you could argue he's generic Republican, but at the same time, it seems equally as likely that some stuff could get dug up on him if anyone even bothered to look into him.

Fitzpatrick is by any definition the most moderate member of the House and you think he's too far-right for Pennsylvania?
Would you say the same about the democratic congressmen from Pennsylvania, who are less moderate than a good chunk of the Republican delegation?

I mean outside of Fitzpatrick, they're all too far right. But Fitzpatrick is a nonstarter himself because he would never win a primary, and also a senate run would force him to finally take a side on many issues that he's skated around.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

Yet another carpetbagger trying to win a senate seat in PA. Is their statewide bench that small to rely on these wealthy out of touch GOP donor circles candidates from another state?

Likely D -> Likely D.

IMO, yes. All of the sitting GOP congressmen are too far right for the median voter. They all represent (outside of Fitzpatrick) safe GOP districts, so they've never had to moderate. Fitzpatrick meanwhile could not win a primary, and even he is a phony 'moderate' 50% of the time. Meanwhile, their only two statewide GOP officeholders are Garrity and DeFoor. Garrity is batsh*t when you actually take a look at what she has said, while DeFoor is just a complete unknown. IMO both won in 2020 because they were both essentially unknown. DeFoor has not made a name for himself, so I guess you could argue he's generic Republican, but at the same time, it seems equally as likely that some stuff could get dug up on him if anyone even bothered to look into him.

Fitzpatrick is by any definition the most moderate member of the House and you think he's too far-right for Pennsylvania?
Would you say the same about the democratic congressmen from Pennsylvania, who are less moderate than a good chunk of the Republican delegation?

I mean outside of Fitzpatrick, they're all too far right. But Fitzpatrick is a nonstarter himself because he would never win a primary, and also a senate run would force him to finally take a side on many issues that he's skated around.

Yup, Fitzpatrick would lose a statewide primary and might not get the turnout from the hardcore base in a GE, even if he were to make inroads in places like Bucks County.

[wbrocks67]

Not much in the latest F&M poll of PA for the senate race given that they couldn't even start polling the GOP primary because no one is in it, but Casey has a positive favorable rating, 39/30.

https://www.fandmpoll.org/poll-release-august-2023/

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Not much in the latest F&M poll of PA for the senate race given that they couldn't even start polling the GOP primary because no one is in it, but Casey has a positive favorable rating, 39/30.

https://www.fandmpoll.org/poll-release-august-2023/

DeSantis dropping 13% in the GOP primary poll in 4 months is SENDING ME

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Not much in the latest F&M poll of PA for the senate race given that they couldn't even start polling the GOP primary because no one is in it, but Casey has a positive favorable rating, 39/30.

https://www.fandmpoll.org/poll-release-august-2023/

I'm surprised it's this low. I expected Casey to be much higher net positive.

In any case, Casey is clearly favored; the GOP doesn't really have a bench in PA. Casey +4, Trump +3 is my guess.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not much in the latest F&M poll of PA for the senate race given that they couldn't even start polling the GOP primary because no one is in it, but Casey has a positive favorable rating, 39/30.

https://www.fandmpoll.org/poll-release-august-2023/

I'm surprised it's this low. I expected Casey to be much higher net positive.

In any case, Casey is clearly favored; the GOP doesn't really have a bench in PA. Casey +4, Trump +3 is my guess.

Lol it's 15 months before Eday Biden is gonna win PA with Bob Casey Jr because if Brown is leading in OH as Chuck Todd said already in 2008/12 when he did the Steve Konraki WI, PA and MI are D Leaning, Biden with Obama will trout out ij Oct 24 Shapiro, Fetterman abd Casey in his stump speeches did you how Hillary lost PA it was with Sestak like we wanted it was Kate McGinty in 2016


With Slotkin Biden is up 1 on MI but Slotkin is 6 pts ahead MI, WI and PA, AZ, NV, GA and VA are 52/46 states

It's 15 months , this is the same S map Obama and Biden got reelection in 2012 that's why it's a good map Slotkin, Baldwin, Brown, Klobuchar, Casey, Kaine, Gallego and Rosen are gonna win, Rosen is in a tough race too but the last POS polls had Biden leading Trump 51/49 in NV

[wbrocks67]

LOL

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1696218868396474650

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1696218868396474650

Trump could win Pennsylvania by 4-5 and he still wouldn’t be able to save McCormick lol

[Kung Fu Kenny]

LOL

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1696218868396474650

While Pennsylvania does not have the type of rivalry with Connecticut that we do with New Jersey, I am willing to stand on the front lines and declare Connecticut an enemy of the commonwealth. They are New York 2.0 with none of the charm and all of the expense. A truly miserable place to live. I can't blame Dave for fleeing back to PA, but our Senate seats our not for sale.

[Comrade Funk]

Republican candidates:

1.) Evil clown buffoons
2.) Corrupt businessmen with minimal ties to their state

[President Johnson]

LOL

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1696218868396474650

Yet people around McTurtleman and even on this forum continue to insist this guy is and/or would have been a better candidate "Dr." Oz. He's just an equally atrocious candidate who would stand next to no chance against a local icon such as Bob Casey. He's easy to paint as another out-of-touch elitist who wants to carpetbag his way into buying a political office purely for his own ego.

The entire Republican bench in Pennsylvania seems to be kind of laughingstock in recent years. Their only viable alternative is Fitzpartick, who would get swamped in a primary because he hasn't gone full MAGA.

[Not Me, Us]

The PAGOP’s inability to find decent candidates for statewide races is truly astounding.

[wbrocks67]

I didn't even realize he said this - he's in even worse shape than I even thought lol

https://twitter.com/andyvolosky/status/1701260546916372728

[oldtimer]

I didn't even realize he said this - he's in even worse shape than I even thought lol

https://twitter.com/andyvolosky/status/1701260546916372728

McCormick's only liberal position is that he's against Trump, that's it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see McCormick getting closer than +4 Casey

[ProgressiveModerate]

McCormick is literally going to be Oz 2.0 if he ultimately gets the nomination.

Still skeptical he will though.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

LOL

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1696218868396474650

While Pennsylvania does not have the type of rivalry with Connecticut that we do with New Jersey, I am willing to stand on the front lines and declare Connecticut an enemy of the commonwealth. They are New York 2.0 with none of the charm and all of the expense. A truly miserable place to live. I can't blame Dave for fleeing back to PA, but our Senate seats our not for sale.

I mean, CT used to claim all of northern PA, so it checks out

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I didn't even realize he said this - he's in even worse shape than I even thought lol

https://twitter.com/andyvolosky/status/1701260546916372728

McCormick's only liberal position is that he's against Trump, that's it.

Imo he's the worst possible candidate Republicans could run. Worse than Oz.
The only reason he's adored by the establishment is cause he's rich and doesn't like Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't beating Bob Casey Jr no ways

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1701919803013775870

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's gonna go down with Trump

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1702338820488999003