There is very much an East-West divide when it comes to culture and politics in Wisconsin. The Eastern part of the is more German and more conservative (except Milwaukee and Kenosha). While the Western part of the state is more Scandinavian and more liberal (except the Twin City area, while still predominately Scandinavian, is the fastest growing conservative area in the state).
http://verseau.wordpress.com/2010/06/05/geographic-curiosities-the-east-west-divide-in-wisconsin/ I would imagine Santourm will do well in the Western and Northern parts of the state. The people that live here are more like those from Iowa, Minnesota and Upper Michigan. While Romney will do well in the southeastern parts of the state, especially the 4 heavily Republican Milwaukee suburban counties and Milwaukee County itself. There are more similarities with the Chicagoland, Detroit and Cleveland. I would also expect Romney to win Dane County, with a stronger than average Paul presence, but he won't get that many votes here as there are only like 75,000 Republicans in the county. To me the swing areas that could decide the election will be the Fox River Valley/Lake Winnebago area (Fond du Lac, Oshkosh, Appleton and Green Bay) and the Sheboygan/Manitowoc areas. These are in the Eastern part of the state so culturally they may be more willing to go towards Romney, but at the same time they are medium sized industrial towns that Santourm won in Michigan and Ohio.
Without any recent credible polling, Ras doesn't count, I would guess that Santourm will win barely. This state is very much a mix of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Upper Michigan and I would expect the results to be similar.
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