WV-03: Williams out

[McGovernForPrez]

To all the haters, Ojeda won his state senate seat in a landslide while Trump won it by 60 points. He'll have no problem winning this district. His challengers are also really weak. Remember he got 35% in the primary against Rahall as well. Ojeda is seriously such a strong fit for this district.

[McGovernForPrez]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

[McGovernForPrez]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

[McGovernForPrez]

Of note: Ojeda was a big backer of the successful strike by the teachers unions.

how will this effect him?

It is definitely a good thing, he is a champion for the working class.

Yeah it's given him some very positive publicity. Both sides of the aisle hate Justice, and Ojeda has been attacking him a lot over this.

[McGovernForPrez]

Democrats picking up any R+20 (or higher) District is less likely than Democrats making a triple digit total net gain in the House, in the 2018 elections.

Richard's district in 2016 was an R+30 district and he won it after primarying out the incumbent Democrat and beating the Republican candidate by 16 points. He's got a very large social media following now, most of those being West Virgians, judging by the comments on his facebook live streams. Ojeda is an all star candidate and I think that he can easily win this district, especially if those internals have any truth to them.

[McGovernForPrez]

It's not like this district was represented by a Democrat until January 2015 or anything

Ojeda got 35% of the Democratic primary vote against Nick Rahall that year when he was basically running as a nobody. Ojeda is a rising star in West Virginia politics, and this is his chance to prove it.

[McGovernForPrez]

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Interesting quote from the article. Looks like Ojeda is really doing well for himself. His name recognition has got to be much higher than any of his Republican opponents.

[McGovernForPrez]

There's a bigger chance that Bernie Sanders becomes a Republican than Ojeda. If Ojeda hates the way the Democrats run things in Washington he'll go 3rd party. Ojeda would rather go down fighting than compromise his beliefs.

[McGovernForPrez]

Ojeda is doing a live stream tonight about the attacks he received from the GOP chair. He's gonna tear her apart.

[McGovernForPrez]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2016&fips=54903&f=0&off=0&elect=0

Hillary Clinton basically got 50,000 votes in this District. A significant portion of those votes will probably go to the Mountain Party nominee if Democrats nominate someone who supported Trump openly in 2016.

Ojeda's basically the Appalachian Bernie Sanders. I don't think enough voters actually care about who he supported in 2016 (which, by the way, was electorally necessary – had he endorsed Clinton he would've committed political suicide) that it would impact the results in any meaningful way.

The point is that is was political suicide either way.

You really don't get it do you. Ojeda is trying very hard to distance himself from controversial national politicians like Pelosi, and Obama in order to win the district. Ojeda is able to secure the liberal vote by being so liberal on economic issues dear to West Virginian liberals. I feel like it's just ignorant of the district's history to think Ojeda has no chance here, especially considering Conor Lamb's recent victory in PA-18.