2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Dr. Arch]

My household just got polled by Action Research.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1301287697886056448

Atlas spirit animal

[Dr. Arch]

Their 8/3-4 poll had Biden 49-45.


I'll go a 48-48 tie. May as well make this board go even more crazy

I'll say 52-46.

[Dr. Arch]

New Monmouth Arizona Poll tomorrow - i'm predicting +6 Biden

Biden+5

Biden+7

[Dr. Arch]

Guys, the race is tightening. I know you don’t want to hear it, but Trump’s base is returning to the fold. Whether or not it will be enough is tough to tell, but it’s really damning that Biden seems stuck with a ceiling of 49% on the RCP national average, and recent state polls are worrisome.
This isn’t doomer-syndrome, it’s reality. Be prepared for the potential end of the American republic.

Show us the data to support your point rather than sounding ridiculous like "Be prepared for the potential end of the American republic." I've been following polls for months, and I don't see what you're saying is there in any of the averages outside of select states, like Texas, where Trump is still running behind Cruz 2018 at the same stage of the race.

I had found you to be a reasonable poster (up until this point, honestly), but you're sounding worse than Horus right now, and that's saying something. Please contribute to discussions meaningfully.

[Dr. Arch]

Watch this poll look relatively good for Trump and the usual suspects who try to ignore/debunk it to make themselves feel better.
(If this post ages horribly I will be very happy)

I'm still waiting on that data from yesterday to back up your claims that Biden has collapsed.

[Dr. Arch]

B+8 I guess.

You undershot it, believe it or not. 

[Dr. Arch]

↑ That PA map looks like Biden +7-9ish map.

[Dr. Arch]

These past couple days have been atrocious for Trump polling-wise. Biden leading in GA, giant lead in PA, big leads in WI+MI. Biden leading NE-02 by an impressive margin. Trump needs something major to save his sinking ship.

Honestly, I'm not sure what. The worst isn't even over yet for him. NYT is holding onto his tax returns until after the debate, and COVID-19 is heading into another wave thanks to bad administration and the start of the flu season.

[Dr. Arch]

Apparently the math based on the crosstabs is Biden 55 Trump 40.

If that's the result I'll be ready to shift Wisconsin to Biden and predict a win for him for the very first time this cycle.

Stay tuned for this historic moment in American history, folks.

[Dr. Arch]

it’s happening
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1315133629337686017?s=21

Uhh... It would have to be a traditionally conceived red state showing a comfortable Biden lead.

AK? MT? SC? TX?

[Dr. Arch]

As I've been noting over the past few days, national polls are usually leading indicators. So, a not-so-hot take would be that the new state polls will be in line with Biden +10-12, with all the implications that follow.

[Dr. Arch]

Did I miss something polling-wise with regard to Michigan? Seems as though a number of my fellow blues are suddenly much more bearish on a Trump loss in PA but a win in Michigan. 

Nothing has significantly changed in Michigan that we didn't know already. All that happened is that we got a "new" Trafalgar "poll," and now MI is winnable again in these folks' eyes. It's just more of the typical polling whiplash in the last stretch of the race.

[Dr. Arch]

Are we getting an ABC/WAPO poll tonight? The last one was 2 weeks ago... or will they just do a final one for next weekend?

Yeah, I imagine that most pollsters are likely going to hold out until the final weekend. No point releasing one right now and then scramble to put another one together for next weekend.