2020 Poll Hype Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 191648 times)
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« on: July 23, 2020, 11:22:53 AM »
Quote from: LCameronOR on July 23, 2020, 10:25:34 AM
Quote from: G_Master on July 23, 2020, 10:06:23 AM
Has anybody noticed that Biden’s polls have been down lately? His polling average hasn’t been this low since early June. Yeah I know he’s still up but it has been dropping steadily since then.
In terms of the national average he's still leading mid to high single digits and his state polling hasn't dropped at all.

Also Trump's approval/disapproval numbers haven't shown any meaningful change for the entire last month. If the race had shifted you would expect to see some change there as well.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2020, 08:13:54 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on August 04, 2020, 07:07:00 PM


If this is true, it smalls like somewhere in Texas or IN05.

Maybe MO-2 or AR-02 as well, though I highly doubt it's the latter.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2020, 11:05:39 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 11, 2020, 08:58:24 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 11, 2020, 08:54:03 AM

Huh, those looking for a "surprise" in Oregon look to be disappointed, Trump's approval at 39/59.

That's his approval to the protests in Portland only, not his overall job approval in the state.

But yeah, I don't think OR will be all too close in that poll.

Maybe high single digits for Biden (+8) to about +12.

Put me down for Biden +18
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2020, 11:37:37 AM »
Quinnipiac has generally had better numbers for Biden in the South than most other pollsters, so I'll say Trump +4, Harrison +1
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2020, 03:48:37 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on October 05, 2020, 03:38:27 PM
Apparently the math based on the crosstabs is Biden 55 Trump 40.

I'm pretty confident that Biden has around 10 point lead at the moment. The real question is whether or not that will be maintained for the rest of the month.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2020, 09:25:05 PM »
Quote from: Splash on October 05, 2020, 09:20:53 PM


Biden +10
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2020, 12:26:20 PM »
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupιe on October 06, 2020, 12:18:03 PM
CNBC has Biden only +4 in PA

Yet there are polls showing PA I double digits.

I’m going to say it again: the wild swings and discrepancies shows no one actually knows. Makes zero sense.

And this is why polling averages are better than individual polls. You would think someone on an elections forum would know that kind of thing.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2020, 05:24:10 PM »
Quote from: Biden +3 in Texas on October 08, 2020, 05:10:27 PM


Very excited for this.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2020, 10:42:45 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 10, 2020, 10:36:05 PM
it’s happening

What do you guys think this is? Like a Biden +20 national NBC/WSJ poll? Or Graham losing by 5 points?


Something tells me I'm going to me making some changes to my map.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2020, 11:03:12 PM »
Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2020, 01:34:12 PM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on October 12, 2020, 01:23:14 PM


Put me down for Biden +5
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2020, 10:09:00 PM »
Quote from: NYDem on October 12, 2020, 08:08:30 PM
Well its been 48 hours, where is the GOP panic poll we were promised? I still think it was all hype.

Normally I would say the Wisconsin poll with Biden leading by 10, but really that isn't that far out of line with expectations by now.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2020, 10:39:59 AM »
Given Quinnipiac's polling in the South thus far this year, I'll say

Georgia: Biden +5
Ohio: Biden +2
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2020, 02:18:20 PM »
Feels like we're overdue for an A-rated poll out of Texas. Last one was in September.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2020, 03:27:34 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 03:22:37 PM
Buzz Official Predictions ™️

Iowa: Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Biden +6

I ...actually agree with these
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2020, 11:22:08 AM »
Quote from: forza nocta on October 21, 2020, 10:12:22 AM
Quote from: Exopolitician on October 21, 2020, 10:10:22 AM
Quote from: forza nocta on October 21, 2020, 10:06:37 AM

Im guessing PA: Biden +12 and Texas: Biden +5

Biden up 5 in Texas seems high. I bet it's more Biden +1.


Its Quinnipiac, of course it’ll be high.

Quinnipiac's polls of Texas this year have actually looked more reasonable than their polls of most other states, so I wouldn't necessarily assume that.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2020, 04:43:39 PM »
Biden +7
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2020, 01:43:29 PM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 23, 2020, 01:39:26 PM


Completely unrelated to the actual poll, but does anyone else have an inherent distrust of anything that calls itself "Action News" or is that just a me thing?
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2020, 01:47:27 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 23, 2020, 01:44:47 PM
Quote from: darthpi on October 23, 2020, 01:43:29 PM
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 23, 2020, 01:39:26 PM


Completely unrelated to the actual poll, but does anyone else have an implicit distrust of anything that calls itself "Action News" or is that just a me thing?

Channel 2 is one of the oldest and most reliable TV stations in Atlanta.  It's just their slogan.

Duly noted.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2020, 03:09:55 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 26, 2020, 02:55:22 PM
Oh god I just know the Ipsos poll will be like PA Biden +2 and meltdowns will ensue

It was Biden +5 and the meltdowns are not ensuing.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2020, 02:27:40 PM »

Florida to the right of Georgia seems like a bit of a stretch.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2020, 02:28:10 PM »

Probably, but throw it in the average, which is still abysmal for Trump.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2020, 01:02:49 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 30, 2020, 01:01:44 PM
Quote from: Beida on October 30, 2020, 12:36:27 PM
Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

People overestimate the predictive value of a pollster rated A+ on 538 vs a pollster rated B.

Edit: Particularly when you're talking about just one poll. It matters more on an aggregate scale.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2020, 04:07:53 PM »
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupιe on November 02, 2020, 02:56:23 PM
Trump is now in command IMO. I told you that as Election Day approaches, the polls would shift towards Trump. I’d be very concerned if I were a Biden supporter.

The national polls have shifted *maybe* half a point, and that's probably just due to herding. The state polls have not meaningfully shifted at all.

But you're a troll and there is no point wasting my time with you.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2020, 05:09:50 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on November 02, 2020, 04:52:20 PM


Hot take (is this even a hot take): The Biden campaign is pretending this race is closer than it is simply to guard against complacency.
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