NC GOV 2024 - Stein (D) vs Robinson (R)

[Sir Mohamed]

Endorsed, I guess?

Is it just me or have candidates begun to announce so early just in recent cycles? I feel it's a bit premature.

[Sir Mohamed]

Mark Robinson on Gays and Transgenders: "It's filth.  And yes I called it filth."

He's also called for the end of separation of church and state in all public schools.

If filth wasn't enough, he also compared homosexuals to cow manure, maggots, and flies.

And then, of course, in the 80s, Robinson paid for an abortion for his then-girlfriend, later-wife.

[Wikipedia]

He's also come out against the teaching of history and science in elementary school.  [local news source]

Sweet Jesus, what a macadamia!

"The GOP moderates on social issues" ... my a**.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yeah, this could easily be another PA Gov, in which candidate quality turns a swing state race into a landslide.

Landslide relative to the state though. I doubt it ends up being in double digits. A 52-46% wouldn't be out of question though and for sure some kind of landslide by NC standards. Especially if the race for POTUS is decided by a small margin in one way or the other.

[Sir Mohamed]

I can see this race becoming like PA-Gov 2022. Probably not anywhere near the same margin; but to where Stein does considerably better than Biden, and wins somewhere around high single digits. Robinson is just as insane as Mastriano was.

It's possible, though I could foresee a scenario in which polls show Stein leading big just before at the end he barely squeaks by and wins an underwhelming 50-48%. NC is a very polarized state.

[Sir Mohamed]

Anyone comparing him to Mastriano is a joke.
His recent ad is one of the best political ads this century. No talk of Trump or even any culture war issues. Just his inspirational background, a positive message and talk about how NC needs fixing. Interestingly criticism of NAFTA and he mentioned how he wants to get jobs back, so a populist message.
He's definitely one of the best public speakers out of politicians today, even if you disagree with him you have to acknowledge his ability to talk to people is unmatched.

https://twitter.com/NikkiBarnesFL/status/1650252653107064835

What? That's.... a take. I'm sure he'll perform well among AAs with that.

[Sir Mohamed]

I predict NC will go D by 4% in the gubernatorial election, and by 1% at the presidential level.

I still think the Republican nominee will carry North Carolina, but unless Robinson actually loses the primary, I think I've seen enough to say Stein will probably win regardless.

I'd consider NC-prez a pure tossup, though a result in which Robinson is rejected by 4 pts. while Trump still wins NC by 1 pt. or less wouldn't be a huge surprise. So basically a repeat of 2020.

[Sir Mohamed]

Calling for reparations from blacks and defending sex offenders/rapsists, I'm sure is a winning message.

[Sir Mohamed]

This kind of has shades of PA-GOV in the sense that Mastriano was also polling not terribly in the very beginning when most of the general electorate did not know how crazy he was. Once they did though... we saw what happened. Obviously Stein won't win by 15, but I imagine Stein is a strong enough candidate to pull that Shapiro playbook and make sure the GE knows how batsh*t Robinson actually is. At this point, not a NC-ian, but I imagine most regular people are not aware of all the stuff he has said.

Agreed. I would expect Stein to win by a similar margin than Cooper did. Possibly close to the maximum in NC.

[Sir Mohamed]

This kind of has shades of PA-GOV in the sense that Mastriano was also polling not terribly in the very beginning when most of the general electorate did not know how crazy he was. Once they did though... we saw what happened. Obviously Stein won't win by 15, but I imagine Stein is a strong enough candidate to pull that Shapiro playbook and make sure the GE knows how batsh*t Robinson actually is. At this point, not a NC-ian, but I imagine most regular people are not aware of all the stuff he has said.

Agreed. I would expect Stein to win by a similar margin than Cooper did. Possibly close to the maximum in NC.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Stein outruns Cooper a few points. I could easily see Stein outrunning Cooper in places like Gaston, Union, Johnston, Alamance, maybe even Brunswick and Henderson. Similar to how Shapiro was able to get impressive numbers in places like York, Washington.

NC is a far less elastic state than PA though. Even the worst candidate would probably not fall below 45% of the vote.

[Sir Mohamed]

Do ya'll think this is the type of situation where there could be reverse coattails that help Biden - Dems take the state more seriously than they otherwise would because of these races, and Robinson's craziness helps marginally juice Dem turnout- Dems who may not have turned out just for Biden, perhaps just enough for Biden win (or at least keep things closer than they would otherwise be)?

yes. it might even be enough for Biden to flip the state. Robinson is that bad.

There's still a good change though Stein wins the race while Trump still carries NC. Just like in 2020, when Cooper winning by 4 pts. still didn't push Biden (or Cunningham) over the top.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's almost like Robinson is a plant and tries to lose with his outlandish statements.