CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Cuca_Beludo]

My prediction for the Republican Gubernatorial Primary in TN:

Lee - 29,1
Black - 27,1
Boyd -25,8
Harwell - 15,7
Others - 2,3

[Cuca_Beludo]

TN Turnout 2014/2018

2014 Primary:

R Senate - 668k  
R Governor - 651k

D Senate - 240k
D Governor - 228k


2018 Primary: 79%in

R Senate - 624k
R Governor - 678k

D Senate - 268k
D Governor - 263k

[Cuca_Beludo]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991714234483421184

[Cuca_Beludo]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually doing better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say that the results tonight are good news for Rs.

[Cuca_Beludo]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps. 

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

No sheit? I thought Rs were far more enthused in this incredible environment.

[Cuca_Beludo]

My last post about this election.

A republican increase of 15% compared to their wave year in '14 is a good thing. Yes, the Dems increased 50% but it's normal in a "D wave" year.

Look, there are polls showing Bredensen ahead/tied and Karl Dean down by only 5-10 points if I remember correctly.

These results are good results if you look at the polls.

Again: only a good sign. General election is a different story.

[Cuca_Beludo]

Anyway yeah, Bredesen and Dean will probably lose, but most people already knew that. The key is that Dems are going to massively improve here (and mostly everywhere.)

THANK you!

Nice to see someone here who isn't a complete idiot at interpreting statistics.

Badger, I literally just posted about polling.

Again, Bredensen is ahead of Blackburn right now. (If polling isn't wrong).

Emerson actually shows Dean up by 4/2 against Black/Boyd.

Obviously Dem's are going to improve a lot. Look at these numbers, almost unreal.

Now, looking at these numbers I was expecting something big to happen in this primary. Yes, D turnout is up but I didn't expect R turn out to grow by 15%. Republicans still have their huge base and that's good news in a state like Tennessee. Again, maybe not exactly good compared to the previous years but VERY GOOD when you look at these terrible polls coming out. These numbers are enough for a comfortable-ish win in November because TN is very red.

NOW. Will republicans turn out again or will many of them change to Bredensen? How will independents vote? We don't know. That's the question.

By the way, we are here to discuss. You came to this thread and all you did was attack people. "You can't do math", "You're idiot".

I'm not sensitive but I would rather have a discussion. I think mods agree with me.

[Cuca_Beludo]

ITT Tender shows his lack of understanding of Southern politics and primaries.

In the vast majority of TN - both geographically and population-wise - the GOP rules. Everywhere else, Dems already dominate; virtually no competitive areas. That's important to understand in the context of primaries, as many voters from the opposing party vote in the dominant party's primary for influence. However, throughout most of the South, it's a one-way affair; i.e. GOP voters in Democratic areas vote in the GOP primary, and DEM voters in GOP areas also vote in the GOP primary. That's because the GOP top-ticket contests are always either important or contested, whereas the DEM contests aren't. That's why GOP ballots are 43% in Shelby County, 70% in Knox County, 74% in Williamson County and 5-15 points more GOP than in general elections everywhere else.

With nothing remotely competitive at the top of the ballot in the Democratic primary, of course practically every GOP voter + like one-third of Dems are going to pull a GOP ballot. It's very important to also point out that a huge element of this trend has nothing to do with whether DEM/GOP primaries have contested top-ticket races: much of it is fueled by local offices. People want to influence who is going to represent them, and in the vast majority of TN, that means voting in the GOP primary to pick the de-facto winner. This happens almost everywhere in the South, and it's nothing new.

A little-known secret is that 20-25% of Southern GOP primary voters in open states are actually Democrats, lol.

That's really interesting. I knew about some democrats voting GOP but had no idea it was this complex. So, in other words it's hard to say what this primary really means and we should focus more on the candidates, right?

[Cuca_Beludo]

oMg MNGOP iS dOnE 4eVeR wOrSt NuMbERs iN tHE HisTOry.

GOP Primaries:

Gov
2010: 130k
2014: 184k
2018: 311k+

Sen
2012: 123k
2014: 180k
2018: 282k/292k+