2012 Taiwan Election

[jaichind]

2008 ROC Prez elections
KMT (Ma)      58.5%
DPP (Hsieh)   41.5%

2012 ROC Prez polls (average)
KMT (Ma)      40%
DPP (Tsai)     38%
PFP (Soong)   10%

Most PFP supporters are KMT rebels.  One wild card is this time ROC Prez election is being held at the same time as LiFaYuan (legislative) elections, a ROC first.  There are a lot of KMT rebels running which is bad for the KMT for the legislative elections but could help Ma as latent KMT voters might turn out to vote for these rebels and then mostly vote Ma or Soong (most likely Ma due to tactical voting.)

Prediction
KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

Most of Soong's backers will choose to vote tactically and go for Ma giving him the victory.

2008 ROC LiFaYuan elections
KMT+allies   60 FPTP + 6 Taiwan aborigine seats + 20 party list = 86 seats
DPP+allies   13 FPTP +  0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 14 party list = 27 seats

There are a lot of KMT rebels and PFP running, none of them will win but will take down a lot of KMT candidates.  KMT party list is accepted by all as the superior and will do well in the party list vote.

2012 ROC LiFaYuan Prediction
KMT+allies   41 FPTP + 5 Taiwan aborigine seats + 18 party list = 64 seats
DPP+allies    32 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 14 party list = 46 seats
PFP                0 FTTP + 1 Taiwan aborgine seats +   2 party list  = 3 seats

[jaichind]

Latest China Times poll.
KMT (Ma)      43%
DPP (Tsai)     35%
PFP (Soong)    8%
Undecided     13%

Ma had a 10% lead back in mid Oct but Tsai closed the to around 1%-4% due to some gaffs.  Tsai had her own recently and the lead is back up to 8%.  When I look at this poll I really feel Tsai's support is 38% and not 35%.  A few days back undecided were around 10% and as Tsai's support fell off no all that support went to Ma, instead undecided went up.  So I really count the 3% that went to undecided as Tsai's support as they will be back as soon as the gaffs Tsai had recently wears off.

Gallup had a poll as well.  It was
               Original           Reweighted        Take hidden DPP voters       Final tally
                                                                  into account
Ma              34.70%          34.38%                   43.00%                      46.13%
Hsai            25.45%          26.19%                   39.30%                      42.16%
Soong          7.51%            7.67%                   10.92%                       11.71%

I generally agree with Gallups methods.  I feel that there will be a Soong strategic collapse and that he will get at best 4%.  If you do take 5% from Soong to Ma and 3% of Soong to Tsai from the final tally it pretty much matches my prediction.

[jaichind]

All eyes are on the 12/3 debate between the candidates.  It could lead to a realigment in the polls depending on how they do. 

[jaichind]

First debate was today.  Mostly a three way draw.  I guess Ma did better but I might be biased.  Soong did pretty well as Ma and Tsai spent most of their time attacking each other.  I expect the polls to drop for both Ma and Tsai (Ma to keep his 6-8% lead) and Soong would go up.  Then as time goes on Soong to lose support again.

Former DPP MP Sheng Fu-Shiung and now political commentator (he is more pro KMT these days despite his DPP background) predicted something like

Ma    52%
Tsai  44%
Soong 4%

Very similar to my prediction of

KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

Note back in 2008 Sheng predicted that Ma would beat Hsieh 59.5% to 40.5% (his exactly prediction was a Ma win by 2.3 million votes), while my prediction was for Ma 59% and Hsieh 41%. [Final 2008 result was Ma 48.5% Hsieh 41.5%]

[jaichind]

Some light and funny news on elections.  Soong's running mate Lin Ruei-shiung who is a fairly well respected although somewhat odd doctor in the medical field claimed that the ROC version of the FBI was using electromagnetic waves to disrupt his thought patterns.  The claimed that when the entire truth comes out about this, this scandal will be "bigger than Watergate." PFP handlers have done their best to keep Lin from bring this topic again. 

Lin is beginning to remind me of James Stockdale from Perot 1992.  The ROC Veep debate is next weekend and I am sure Soong and PFP is worried about what else Lin might say before and even worse, during the debate.  Lin's acivities really paint the Soong campaign as not serious and quixotic.  Like I mentioned before, Soong's 10% support will drop to 4% or even less on election day.

[jaichind]

Latest polls from vaious media outlets (mostly pro-KMT) show a Ma leading anywhere from 5-8% with Soong now at around 7-8% support.  DPP polls show a dead heat. 

Historically pro-KMT media polls do underestimate DPP support.  On the other hand, DPP polls historically have been precieved as doctored up to fit their political goals.  Back in 2008 pro-KMT media polls show Ma with a lead of 20% or so over DPP's Hsieh.  DPP polls showed Ma leading by 7% which was mocked by most political experts.  Ma ended up winning by around 18%.

An secret internal DPP memo which just go leaked projected a Ma victory by 4.5%. Their logic was the following, DPP polls show a dead tie. But DPP figured that since 10% of the voting population on Taiwan Province are actually living in Mainland China, polls do not account for that.  They figured that when they come back to Taiwan Province to vote Jan 15, most will vote KMT by a ratio of 4 to 1.  This should add 2% of the KMT lead even if some of the KMT vote here also went to Soong. They also figured that since the Legislative elections are being held at the same time as the Presidential election that will push up turnout which will help KMT extend its lead by 1% or so.  They also figure that tactical voting by Soong voters will swing another 2% to Ma.
While I disagree that Ma and Tsai are tied right now (I feel Ma does have a small but significant lead). But I mentioned in my prediction of Ma 51% Tsai 45% Soong 4% that is was assuming similar factors that the DPP is citing.

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS (pro-KMT TV station) poll.  Ma (KMT) 44 Tsai (DPP) 35 Soong (PFP) 7.
Based on this poll TVBS projects Ma (KMT) 50 Tsai (DPP) 45 Soong (PFP) 5 which is pretty similar to my prediction of Ma 51 Tsai 45 Soong 4.  TVBS predictions tries to filter out its pro-KMT bias by assiging undecided more toward Tsai based on their demographic background.  I think if Soong is polling 7% then giving him 5% in final vote share is optimistic.  I stick by my prediction that Soong will get no more than 4% and most likely less.
 

[jaichind]

Election is 1/14/2012. As of 1/3/2012 publishing of all polls are banned.  Last published polls are as follows
TVBS (pro-KMT) Ma 45 Tsai 37 Soong 6 -> Projects Ma 49 Tsai 46 Soong 5
United Daily (pro-KMT) Ma 44 Tsai 36 Soong 7
China Times (lean KMT) Ma 39.5 Tsai 36.5 Soong 5.8 -> Projects Ma 48.3 Tsai 44.6 Soong 7.1
Now News (lean KMT) Ma 37.2 Tsai 33.1 Soong 7.2
Taiwan Think Tank (pro-DPP) Ma 38.8 Tsai 37.8 Soong 11.6
Apple Daily (neutral) Ma 42.2 Tsai 35.7 Soong 6.2
Gallup (neutral) Ma 40.9 Tsai 24.3 Soong 6.3 -> Projects Ma 48.4 Tsai 44.8 Soong 6.8

DPP projects Ma 47 Tsai 48 Soong 5
KMT internal pollings claims Ma is ahead by 10 and said that high turnout would put Ma over the top.
Most underground casinos are offering bets for Ma to win by 1.5% but many punters are only taking bets on Tsai and not Ma which seems to imply that they feel that Ma will win by greater than 1.5%

Projections are sort of close to my predition.  Ma 51 Tsai 45 Soong 4.  I guess my projection calls for greater tatical voting by Soong voters to vote for Ma than these polling outfits.  We all seems to think that Tsai will get around 45.  We will see 1/14 who is right. 

[jaichind]

My psudo-final prediction - no change from before

KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

2012 ROC LiFaYuan Prediction
KMT+allies   45 FPTP + 6 Taiwan aborigine seats + 19 party list = 70 seats
DPP+allies    28 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 15 party list = 43 seats
PFP                0 FTTP + 0 Taiwan aborgine seats +   0 party list  = 0 seats

I am going to go out on a limb and predict that PFP will flop completely.  They will not pass 5% in the party list vote to get seats.  They will lose all FPTP seats and their candidate will not win any of the Taiwan aborigine seats.  Of course there will be tactical voting in the Prez vote and Soong will fall to 4%.  The biggest collapse for Soong support will be in urban areas, his vote will hold up in rural areas.

[jaichind]

ROC Prez elections does not run-offs. 
For LiFaYuan elections, there has only been polling at the party list level.  Last known poll was by United Daily on 1/2/2012.  It was

KMT   40%
DPP   29%
PFP     5%

Gallup had a poll late Dec 2011 for LiFaYuan

For Generic ballot FPTP
KMT   32.3%
DPP   20.4%
PFP     2.5%   (KMT splinter)
NP       0.4%  (KMT splinter)
NPSU   0.9%  (KMT ally)

For Party list
KMT   36.8%
DPP   21.5%
PFP     5.6%
NP       0.6%
TSU     2.2%  (DPP splinter)
Greens 0.5%

I'll try a prediction:

47% Ma Ying-jeou (KMT)
42% Tsai Ing-wen (DPP)
11% James Soong Chu-yu (PFP)

BTW, do Taiwan Presidential Elections have run-offs ?

And, does anyone have seen polls for the Parliamentary Elections ?

[jaichind]

Voting in progress.  DPP predicts that Tsai will win by 1% (they been predicting that for months now and is unlikely to be true).  They also predict DPP will get between 40-45 seats in LiFaYuan.  That makes me suspect my prediction of 43 seats for DPP might overstate what they will get.  If DPP predicts 40-45 seats I suspect they will get 35-40 seats. 

[jaichind]

Ma 52.5 Tsai 44.7 Soong 2.8 with about 25% of vote counted Like I said, Soong would struggle to get 5% and my prediction of 4% for Soong as too generous.  Tsai was always going to get about 45, rest is Ma and Soong.

[jaichind]

Nope.  Still in states.  I do not have ROC citizenship ergo I cannot vote there.  Lots of my relatives went back to vote.  5 of them for Ma and 3 of them for Tsai

Did you go back to Taiwan to vote of are you staying on the sidelines?

[jaichind]

We are about 55% done.  Ma 52.35 Tsai 44.82 Soong 2.83. We can call this baby.

[jaichind]

If it ends up being Ma 52 Tsai 45 Soong 3 it will ends up pretty close to my Ma 51 Tsai 45 Soong 4 prediction.  The simple fact is that DPP cannot get more than 45 period. They can put up a women moderate candidate like Tsai in the mist of poor economic enviornment but the anti-independent vote is just too strong.  I guess even I underestimated the tactical voting by KMT voters, Soong will end up with less than 3% versus my 4% prediction.

[jaichind]

KMT announces victory in Prez and LiFaYuan elections.
My comments are the same as in 2008 KMT election victory - Long Live Republic of China, Long Live Chinese Reunification, For a Greater Chinese Union.

Let me note again that the official name of KMT is when translated to English is China National Citizens Party.  Once again a majority of the people on Taiwan Province voted for a political party with the word "China" in it.  The pro-independence forces are smashed again as they should in any fair fight without KMT forces being split or some other DPP last minute "shootings".

[jaichind]

Lets see how did I do so far

Prediction
KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

So far
Ma     51.86
Tsai    45.33
Soong  2.80

Prediction
KMT+allies   45 FPTP + 6 Taiwan aborigine seats + 19 party list = 70 seats
DPP+allies    28 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 15 party list = 43 seats
PFP                0 FTTP + 0 Taiwan aborgine seats +   0 party list  = 0 seats

So far it is
FPTP
KMT and allies 47
DPP and allies  26

Aborigine
KMT and allies 5
DPP and allies 0
PFP                1

No party list results so far.

 

[jaichind]

Looks like I did goof up the party vote
If seems it is

KMT 44
DPP 35
TSU  9
PFP   5.4

which would translate in seats

KMT  16
DPP   13
TSU    3
PFP     2

Where as I predicted KMT 19 DPP 15.  I got the relative vote shares between KMT and DPP right but I felt that both TSU, PFP, and NP all would not cross 5%.  But PFP barely did and TSU got 9%.  TSU which is a DPP ally most likely got that high of a vote due to its statement that if it does not get above 5% it would dissolve itself as a party.

[jaichind]

Another update comparison to my prediction

Prediction
KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

Current result (only about .5% left to count)
Ma     51.6
Tsai    45.6
Soong  2.8

LiFaYuan Prediction

2012 ROC LiFaYuan Prediction
KMT+allies   45 FPTP + 6 Taiwan aborigine seats + 19 party list = 70 seats
DPP+allies    28 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 15 party list = 43 seats
PFP                0 FTTP + 0 Taiwan aborgine seats +   0 party list  = 0 seats

Result
KMT+allies   46 FPTP + 5 Taiwan aborigine seats + 16 party list = 67 seats
DPP+allies    27 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 13 party list = 40 seats
PFP                0 FPTP + 1 Taiwan aborgine seats +   2 party list  = 3 seats
TSU               0 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats +   3 party list  = 3 seats

I actaully got the Blue/Green balance correct 70 vs 43.  Instead of KMT vs DPP as 70 vs 43. It is KMT+PFP 70 vs DPP+TSU 43.

My psudo-final prediction - no change from before

KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

2012 ROC LiFaYuan Prediction
KMT+allies   45 FPTP + 6 Taiwan aborigine seats + 19 party list = 70 seats
DPP+allies    28 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 15 party list = 43 seats
PFP                0 FTTP + 0 Taiwan aborgine seats +   0 party list  = 0 seats

I am going to go out on a limb and predict that PFP will flop completely.  They will not pass 5% in the party list vote to get seats.  They will lose all FPTP seats and their candidate will not win any of the Taiwan aborigine seats.  Of course there will be tactical voting in the Prez vote and Soong will fall to 4%.  The biggest collapse for Soong support will be in urban areas, his vote will hold up in rural areas.

[jaichind]

The blog in question generally got it right but still does not explain why Hoklos in Northern Taiwan province votes KMT at a greater rate than Hoklos in Southern Taiwan province.  The main difference is income and education.  See my last post post the 2008 ROC elections

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=67360.30

While national identify plays a role, some of the identities a created through economic interests.  Northern Hoklos with high income and education sees economic integration with Mainland China as useful as they do not work in economic sectors that compete head to head with Mainland China.  In lower income Southren Taiwan Province it is a different story.  Of course in the next 10-15 years as the Mainland continues its catchup with Taiwan Province there will be further alignment. 

Note that back in the 1990s the DPP was stronger in Northern Taiwan Province and the KMT strongre in Southren Taiwan Province.  During the 1990s economic integration with the Mainland was not a significant factor in politics.

I wondered why there was a north-south divide, so I did a google search and it threw up this blog post.  Very informative - http://nottspolitics.org/2011/11/02/the-geography-of-voting-patterns-in-taiwan/

[jaichind]

Pretty much.  There are about 150K Plains Aborigine and 200K Mountain Aborigine.  Most of them are low income low education and are concentrated in Hualian counties and Taidong counties. Both county governments are in the hands of pan-Blue political forces from top to bottom, although in 2009 DPP did capture Taidong county executive due to poor KMT candidate selection. 
As a result all government subsidies that goes to Aborigines are going via pan-Blue political forces. The Aborigines vote KMT or allies as a result.  Some DPP factions also enage in Hoklo  Chauvinism which tends to drive those Aborigines that mirgated to urban areas toward the KMT.

So the abos vote KMT?

Yep, strongly (though this has much to do with past KMT patronage and popular prejudice). Ironically, the separatists, who are predominately Hoklo, exploit Aboriginal dress/language/customs etc to bolster their argument that Taiwan is not Chinese...except that Aboriginals don't buy that rhetoric.

[jaichind]

Note that a lot of internet based media on mainland China did cover the election.  Election night it is said that over 250 million Mainland Chinese were watching the coverage.  It was said that a lot of them were moved by Tsai's concession speech.  The official media, correctly so, could not cover the election.  I would not have it any other way.  The current unsaid concensus of the Taipei and Beijing regimes are that both sides will claim to be the one and only legitimate government of China and that there is only one China which includes both Taiwan Province and Mainland China. 

Funny, I'm live streaming CCTV at this moment and they're pretending the election isn't occurring at all. Given the better-than-expected result for Ma, this reflects an ultra-cautious stance by the Politburo bigwigs.

[jaichind]

Some final thoughts on 2012 ROC elections.  As I mentioned before in 2008 and just like the ROC election of 2008, this election is a reflection of the partisan divisions of what I call "System of 2000."
See the last post of https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=67360.30 where I outline this.  It mostly comes down to urban/rural divide and ethnic identify politics.  Pan-Blue are getting releatively stronger in urban areas and relatively weaker in rural areas.  Looking at 2000 versus 2012 pan-blue vote and swings we get

         2000   
       59.10%   14.64%   26.26%
Region   Total   Urban   Township   Rural
Greater Jinmen   96.64%    N/A   96.12%   97.58%
Hualian County   78.19%   74.83%   80.06%   79.64%
Taidong County   76.55%   71.83%   82.60%   80.18%
Miaoli County   71.97%   77.07%   66.57%   79.33%
Greater Hsintsu   69.21%   65.73%   72.42%   74.68%
Taoyuan County   66.10%   67.74%   64.88%   63.36%
Greater Taipei   62.70%   62.64%   64.19%   62.44%
Naotou County   65.22%   68.25%   63.09%   66.52%
Greater Taichung   62.86%   62.26%   62.94%   64.12%
Penghu County   62.94%   64.58%   N/A   60.44%
Changhwa County   59.57%   61.29%   60.23%   58.38%
Yilan County   52.69%   57.34%   55.26%   49.13%
Greater Kaoshiung   53.23%   54.05%   55.69%   50.61%
Pingdong County   53.34%   57.81%   51.08%   52.17%
Yunlin County   52.72%   58.42%   52.25%   51.53%
Greater Jiayi   51.01%   51.81%   53.08%   50.03%
Greater Tainan   48.96%   53.27%   41.92%   45.13%
Total                  60.07%   61.03%   60.12%   57.87%

         2012   
      60.81%   14.14%   25.05%
Region   Total   Urban   Township   Rural
Greater Jinmen   91.80%   N/A   91.87%   91.70%
Hualian County   74.06%   72.68%   73.28%   75.02%
Taidong County   69.50%   66.34%   74.62%   72.14%
Miaoli County   66.82%   74.46%   61.86%   72.51%
Greater Hsintsu   65.24%   61.86%   70.43%   70.11%
Taoyuan County   60.15%   62.26%   59.95%   56.04%
Greater Taipei   58.41%   58.80%   56.65%   54.13%
Naotou County   57.63%   60.33%   56.84%   57.11%
Greater Taichung   55.32%   56.18%   54.12%   53.88%
Penghu County   54.35%   56.42%   N/A   50.88%
Changhwa County   53.51%   56.53%   54.34%   51.55%
Yilan County   47.47%   53.38%   49.82%   43.48%
Greater Kaoshiung   46.58%   48.39%   47.69%   41.62%
Pingdong County   44.87%   51.98%   43.00%   42.45%
Yunlin County   44.19%   54.34%   44.35%   40.98%
Greater Jiayi   43.88%   47.07%   43.83%   41.16%
Greater Tainan   42.28%   46.46%   35.48%   37.51%
Total                  54.37%   56.29%   54.02%   49.90%

      00 to 12 swing      
            
Region   total del   Urban del   town del   rural del
Greater Jinmen   -4.83%   N/A   -4.25%   -5.89%
Hualian County   -4.13%   -2.15%   -6.78%   -4.61%
Taidong County   -7.06%   -5.49%   -7.98%   -8.04%
Miaoli County   -5.15%   -2.60%   -4.70%   -6.83%
Greater Hsintsu   -3.96%   -3.87%   -2.00%   -4.57%
Taoyuan County   -5.95%   -5.48%   -4.93%   -7.31%
Greater Taipei   -4.30%   -3.84%   -7.54%   -8.31%
Naotou County   -7.58%   -7.92%   -6.25%   -9.42%
Greater Taichung   -7.54%   -6.08%   -8.81%   -10.25%
Penghu County   -8.60%   -8.16%   N/A   -9.56%
Changhwa County   -6.06%   -4.76%   -5.89%   -6.83%
Yilan County   -5.22%   -3.96%   -5.43%   -5.65%
Greater Kaoshiung   -6.66%   -5.65%   -8.00%   -8.99%
Pingdong County   -8.48%   -5.83%   -8.08%   -9.72%
Yunlin County   -8.53%   -4.09%   -7.90%   -10.55%
Greater Jiayi   -7.13%   -4.73%   -9.25%   -8.87%
Greater Tainan   -6.68%   -6.81%   -6.44%   -7.62%
Total                  -5.70%   -4.74%   -6.10%   -7.97%

The trend of Pan-Blues gaining relatively in urban areas since 2000 which itself was a realigning election of Blue strength in urban areas and weakness in rural areas have continued.  What is bad for Pan-Greens is that the % of the vote that is in urban areas are going up and rural areas down.