Finally, an exciting state at last, Michigan. She looks poised to flip back to Biden this cycle with dems posting good numbers in 2018, and good polling in 2020, with Biden leading by a decent amount and flirting with 50. Still, this is a state that is moving towards the GOP a little, so the swing should be pretty tame. Biden is set to substantially improve in the educated and growing suburbs like washtenaw, oakland kent, ottawa, etc. counties. this ultimately is what will hand Biden the state. He probably won't be posting more than modest gains in places like Wayne and Genessee. The smaller cities like lansing and kalamazoo should swing decently towards him though. Macomb is an interesting place, and should swing towards Biden somewhat, but probably not enough for a win. Look for Livingston as a place that Biden can make up ground under the radar too, with a strong congressional incumbent and decent trends. Most of the rest of the state however should continue to slowly march towards the GOP, especially the rurals, as the GOP has not maxxed out in rural Michigan quite yet.
+0.23 Trump to +4.52 Biden (4.75 margin swing dem)
I think this a fairly good prediction, but I would flip Leelanau and Isabella to Biden. I also don't think Trump will break 50% in Grand Traverse or Bay, although he will probably win both by a slim margin. Not sure Trump will break 60% in Gratiot but he might be able to break 70% in Missaukee and maybe Montmorency. Depending on how much he's able to supercharge WWC rural voters (the ancestral dem types), he might also break 70 in Oscoda. And I think Biden will be able to hold Trump under 60% in Chippewa, Charlevoix, Antrim. That part of Michigan is trending to the left at a fast pace, partially because of all the retirees from Chicago who are moving there.
