2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Storr]

MSNBC changes Minnesota from Too Early to Call to Too Early to Call with Biden Leading, which means they think he'll win.

Relatedly, CNN projects Minnesota for Biden.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

This is shaping up to be a LOT like 2018. Florida goes bad, everyone freaks the fu—k out, then we slowly learn over the course of the night that just about everywhere else is fine.

We might even still win Georgia LOL. And to think we had doomers dooming, Trumpers gloating, and everyone pointing fingers and arguing over the cause of this “loss” that was never very likely to actually occur.

Republicans are keeping the Senate. Real doomer hours if you actually want Democratic legislation to pass.

I guess that doesn't matter when all you care about is performativity.

Believe it or not, I don’t want the most powerful man in the world to be a dangerous incompetent idiot and wannabe dictator. That’s more important to me than the Senate, and it’s not just “performative.”

McConnell will be more powerful than Biden and he, unlike Trump, is highly competent and evil.

Sorry, but you guys blew it. Biden may eke out a narrow victory that will be largely hollow. No Democratic policy goal, judge appointment, or bill will pass. Which renders the entire primary meaningless.

But on the plus side, he will have plenty of time to eat ice cream. Make sure it's that Jeni's brand the centrist Dems weirdly obsess over.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/peytonyager/status/1323860509561626626?s=19
OK-5 has flipped.

And Trump is narrowly leading in Oklahoma County so it's clear that he's going to hold OK-05 at this point, and will probably sweep Oklahoma again...just like in 2016. However, he's only winning Oklahoma County with a plurality.

[charcuterie]

https://twitter.com/peytonyager/status/1323860509561626626?s=19
OK-5 has flipped.

(

[vitoNova]

lol.   The status quo will win.

Most of us are working from home, and making bank.

Why would we want to change this?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

This is shaping up to be a LOT like 2018. Florida goes bad, everyone freaks the fu—k out, then we slowly learn over the course of the night that just about everywhere else is fine.

We might even still win Georgia LOL. And to think we had doomers dooming, Trumpers gloating, and everyone pointing fingers and arguing over the cause of this “loss” that was never very likely to actually occur.

Convince me I'm wrong. How does Biden win Wisconsin when Trump has 1,000 more votes in Lafayette than he got in 2016? The polls giving Biden the edge were predicated on Trump losing those voters hard, but I just don't see a Democrat path to victory in Wisconsin without the Southwest. Wisconsin doesn't have the same disproportionately D favouring, late arriving mail ins that

For reference, in 2018 Baldwin won Lafayette by her exact margin of victory (55%) and Scott Walker narrowly won it with 1,800 fewer voters. Unless Biden pulls out crazy margins in Milwaukee or dramatically flips the WOW I just don't see a path to victory for him here.

Pennsylvania is obviously harder to tell with the huge D mail in advantage but the same trend appears to be happening there too. Trump already has 54k votes in Erie with less than 60% counted, he only got 60k in 2016 and Romney only got around 40k in 2012. This is a county that Biden was supposed to flip by double digits.

I want my prediction to be 100% right but everything I'm seeing suggests we're far closer to 2016 than 2018. The only potentially redeeming factor for Biden is better suburban margins and turnout, which could definitely save him in Pennsylvania, but if Biden wins Wisconsin on the back of the suburbs I'll eat a sock.

[super6646]

Idk about Pennsylvania. Allegheny country is like 80-20 and I doubt the final spread will be like that.

It's going to be very very close.

[Alben Barkley]

what's happening in GA?

Green = Reported
Yellow = Partially
Grey= Not reported (Hancock was Clinton 3rd best county)

Georgia’s flipping as a salute to Jimmy Carter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Biden may be back in the game with late ballots.

Who said there was a Red Mirage - Blue Wave?

Everybody?

[Non Swing Voter]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI?

WI?

PA?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

IAPRES called for Trump. IASEN remains uncalled.

[xavier110]

Why is Rhode Island still so close?

It’s only Election Day vote. No mail ballots

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

what's happening in GA?

Green = Reported
Yellow = Partially
Grey= Not reported (Hancock was Clinton 3rd best county)

Bad news for Trump that GA's outstanding vote is extremely Dem-leaning.

[Astatine]

Nebraska's 1st congressional district had a crazy leftward swing so far.

Was Trump +18, now Trump +3.6.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

he's only winning Oklahoma County with a plurality.

Seriously, f#ck third party votes in competitive races.

[Fargobison]

https://twitter.com/megynkelly/status/1323862233777115136

[Lourdes]

NBC calls Florida for Trump.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

lol.   The status quo will win.

Most of us are working from home, and making bank.

Why would we want to change this?

Please tell me this is a joke.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FL finally called for Trump. Along with IASEN.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is shaping up to be a LOT like 2018. Florida goes bad, everyone freaks the fu—k out, then we slowly learn over the course of the night that just about everywhere else is fine.

We might even still win Georgia LOL. And to think we had doomers dooming, Trumpers gloating, and everyone pointing fingers and arguing over the cause of this “loss” that was never very likely to actually occur.

Convince me I'm wrong. How does Biden win Wisconsin when Trump has 1,000 more votes in Lafayette than he got in 2016? The polls giving Biden the edge were predicated on Trump losing those voters hard, but I just don't see a Democrat path to victory in Wisconsin without the Southwest. Wisconsin doesn't have the same disproportionately D favouring, late arriving mail ins that

For reference, in 2018 Baldwin won Lafayette by her exact margin of victory (55%) and Scott Walker narrowly won it with 1,800 fewer voters. Unless Biden pulls out crazy margins in Milwaukee or dramatically flips the WOW I just don't see a path to victory for him here.

Pennsylvania is obviously harder to tell with the huge D mail in advantage but the same trend appears to be happening there too. Trump already has 54k votes in Erie with less than 60% counted, he only got 60k in 2016 and Romney only got around 40k in 2012. This is a county that Biden was supposed to flip by double digits.

I want my prediction to be 100% right but everything I'm seeing suggests we're far closer to 2016 than 2018. The only potentially redeeming factor for Biden is better suburban margins and turnout, which could definitely save him in Pennsylvania, but if Biden wins Wisconsin on the back of the suburbs I'll eat a sock.

Ok how about for starters Biden is doing 10% better in Dane then Hillary and Evens did?

[Fargobison]

https://twitter.com/megynkelly/status/1323862136842522626

[Storr]

NBC calls Florida for Trump.

As does CNN. (Coincidence, I'm sure. lol)

[DrScholl]

Kevin McCarthy is only leading his Democratic opponent 54-46. This is the most GOP district in the state.

[CrimsonCommander688]

Maybe Old Turtle face McConnell would  bite the dust  and Beshear can appoint a replacement.

[MasterJedi]

This is shaping up to be a LOT like 2018. Florida goes bad, everyone freaks the fu—k out, then we slowly learn over the course of the night that just about everywhere else is fine.

We might even still win Georgia LOL. And to think we had doomers dooming, Trumpers gloating, and everyone pointing fingers and arguing over the cause of this “loss” that was never very likely to actually occur.

Convince me I'm wrong. How does Biden win Wisconsin when Trump has 1,000 more votes in Lafayette than he got in 2016? The polls giving Biden the edge were predicated on Trump losing those voters hard, but I just don't see a Democrat path to victory in Wisconsin without the Southwest. Wisconsin doesn't have the same disproportionately D favouring, late arriving mail ins that

For reference, in 2018 Baldwin won Lafayette by her exact margin of victory (55%) and Scott Walker narrowly won it with 1,800 fewer voters. Unless Biden pulls out crazy margins in Milwaukee or dramatically flips the WOW I just don't see a path to victory for him here.

Pennsylvania is obviously harder to tell with the huge D mail in advantage but the same trend appears to be happening there too. Trump already has 54k votes in Erie with less than 60% counted, he only got 60k in 2016 and Romney only got around 40k in 2012. This is a county that Biden was supposed to flip by double digits.

I want my prediction to be 100% right but everything I'm seeing suggests we're far closer to 2016 than 2018. The only potentially redeeming factor for Biden is better suburban margins and turnout, which could definitely save him in Pennsylvania, but if Biden wins Wisconsin on the back of the suburbs I'll eat a sock.

Ok how about for starters Biden is doing 10% better in Dane then Hillary and Evens did?

Add to that Biden doing better in WOW plus most of Milwaukee out, aka a squeaker.