2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 623049 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,890
« on: November 03, 2020, 03:05:28 PM »
For those who are interested, I finally took a close look at the early vote data from Texas.

The TLDR is that even with making some pretty conservative assumptions, it seems extremely easy to get to a narrow Biden win scenario if you start off from the 2020 turnout by county data and the 2018 Beto-Cruz results. In fact, it is sort of hard to not come out with Biden ahead unless you are really straining things and trying to strain the available data to interpret it as much in Trump's favor as possible. For one thing, the turnout in a lot of white rural heavily GOP counties seems to have lagged pretty hard during the early vote period behind the larger urban/suburban counties.

I wrote a longer post in the Final prediction: Who will win TX? thread here describing how I came up with this in detail: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410006.msg7722991#msg7722991

This is enough for me to push TX to (very narrowly) tilt Biden. It just seems more plausible that Biden will win TX than that he will lose it - which is saying something for a state that has been as strongly R as Texas.

But here is my little scenario/benchmarks for what is required for a narrow Biden win for the largest counties that you can compare to the results on election night.



If Biden is generally hitting these sorts of numbers, then he could win Texas (but is not guaranteed if he is only barely hitting them). One interesting thing to note is that the Biden margin from Harris + Dallas + Travis counties here adds up to almost exactly 1 million.

As a quick shorthand, you can look at those 3 counties, and if Biden's margin from those 3 counties is more than 1 million, then he has a shot of narrowly winning Texas and perhaps may even be favored to do so.

Another interesting thing about this scenario is it does not even require Biden to win Collin or Denton counties to win statewide. That is a direct result of the assumptions that went into it, however. I deliberately did not assume any sort of extra suburban swing to Dems beyond what we already saw in 2018, and only assumed that the surge voters would be, in each county, slightly more Dem than the non-surge voters. Basically, in this scenario, the swings to Biden are larger in counties where there are lots of surge voters, and lower in counties where there are not many surge voters, due to the deliberately cautious and conservative assumption that the only thing Biden has going for him are the surge voters being (slightly) more Dem. In reality, I would expect any swing to Biden to be a bit more concentrated in the urban/suburban counties than here. If Biden does a bit better in counties like Collin/Denton, then that would give him a little bit of cushion against some possible slippage in some rural counties.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 04:36:58 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 03, 2020, 03:25:08 PM
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on November 03, 2020, 03:23:35 PM
PA Dems are saying Montgomery County (Clinton +20) could hit 90% turnout. That would be up from 77% in 2016.

JFC, the suburbs hate Trump.  This is just pure rage voting at this point.

Angry PA women.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 05:37:25 PM »
Quote from: I will now accept my accolades on November 03, 2020, 05:04:23 PM
So is no one else concerned about those voters Trump GAINED in Guam?

Honestly I am. I don't want to see him gaining votes anywhere. The fact that Trump is apparently gaining votes there means that there is possibly some sort of demographic swinging to him (military vote or something?). What I want to see is nobody swinging to him whatsoever.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 06:08:05 PM »
So far we haven't crashed, which is a good sign. Thanks to Virginia (famous last words, yes I am going to jinx it)...
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 06:18:01 PM »
Greene county IN, 68.4% Trump with 52% reporting, was 74.1% Trump in 2016... good sign in rural Indiana. Cross your fingers...
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 06:21:15 PM »
DeKalb County IN, 68.3% Trump with 1% in, probably early vote or something. County as a whole was 70.9% Trump in 2016.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 06:23:20 PM »
Casey County KY, 78% in 85.8% Trump, was 85.1% in 2016.

So far no real sign of any rural swing to Trump, and possibly slight rural swing away from Trump across the handful of IN/KY counties with results...
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 06:26:01 PM »
Anderson County KY, 18% in, 58.3% Biden, was 23% Clinton in 2016...

Elliot County KY, 66.1% Trump with 47% in, was 70.1% Trump in 2016

Greenup County KY, 67.8% Trump with 67% in, was 70.9% Trump in 2016


Every single county so far is a swing to Biden or no swing, all rural counties...

If this is at all representative, Trump is done.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 06:27:00 PM »
Lewis County KY, 54% in, 80.2% Trump, was 82.4% Trump in 2016...

Bad bad bad for Trump, Biden is gonna win this it looks like. If Trump cannot overperform in these places, he cannot overperform anywhere.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 06:31:21 PM »
Quote from: Progressive on November 03, 2020, 06:28:11 PM
There's clearly a shift in rural America by a few points toward Biden

Yep, so far I have not seen any counties in rural KY/IN shifting to Trump, even with partial results.

Disastrous for Trump, hard to see how Biden does not win at this point (unless somehow all the early results are from method of vote that is Dem skewed, if they are all early vote or something, idk).
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2020, 06:34:40 PM »
Quote from: Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️ on November 03, 2020, 06:31:21 PM
Quote from: Progressive on November 03, 2020, 06:28:11 PM
There's clearly a shift in rural America by a few points toward Biden

Yep, so far I have not seen any counties in rural KY/IN shifting to Trump, even with partial results.

Disastrous for Trump, hard to see how Biden does not win at this point (unless somehow all the early results are from method of vote that is Dem skewed, if they are all early vote or something, idk).

K, there are a handful of exceptions now.

Larue KY, 60% in 83.3% for Trump, was 75.4% in 2016.

Robertson County KY, 77.2% Trump with 93% in, was 74.9% in 2016.

But overall, still not looking like any sort of Trump rural swing, and if anything going generally in the other direction.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2020, 06:38:10 PM »
Fayette County KY (Lexington), 51% in, 73.5% Biden, was 51.2% Clinton in 2016 lol

Maybe that is early vote and not representative, but so far very good from the only Dem base county to report anything...
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2020, 06:39:47 PM »

That is not gonna last, but hilarious while it does (thank you Lexington).
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2020, 06:42:48 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 03, 2020, 06:37:49 PM
Is there any evidence of a massive increase in turnout in these rurals?  That was the way Trump was going to keep things competitive generally.

Not much because counties have not reported that much... But Robertson County KY, the one at 93% in where there is a narrow swing to Trump, is 883 Trump and 252 Biden, compared to a total turnout of 1013 in 2016. So that is definitely a turnout increase, though it is impossible to say if the turnout increase is any bigger (or smaller) than turnout increases in urban/suburban areas.

But that is a turnout increase and a pro-Trump swing in that single county so far, so that is at least one good thing for Trump that maybe means he has some sort of chance.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2020, 06:45:27 PM »
Lol Biden leading Rowan County KY (early vote, I assume, surely will go down) with 67.2%

The rural Demosaur lives!!!

The county was 37.2% Clinton in 2016...
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2020, 06:47:12 PM »
Trump leads Jefferson County KY (Louisville) 72 votes to 8...

Cue Trump: STOP THE COUNT
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 06:49:20 PM »
Hmmm Bath County KY is 68.9% Trump and up to 88% reporting...

Trump only got 67.2% in 2016 there...

So that is more than 1 of the rural counties that are closer to 100% reporting with a slight pro-Trump swing. So yeah early vote is probably making things look too good for Biden right now. If Trump gets a rural swing going his way more generally, even if small, he has at least some chance and we need to see more results in other states.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 06:52:40 PM »
Another rural county in KY getting close to 100% turnout...

Lincoln County is up to 85% in and 76.5% Trump. That was 76.7% Trump in 2016.

Not really a clear swing there, but maybe when it gets to 100%, we will have to wait and see.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2020, 06:54:49 PM »

Yes, but only 78% in, so it could still change if the vote in so far is not representative.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2020, 06:57:31 PM »

I hope, and it looks possible.

I think for Trump to win he needs at least some sort of rural swing (even in Texas). From KY/IN so far it looks like there may be a rural swing to Trump, but if so it is probably not too big.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2020, 07:00:14 PM »
Cass County in rural IN, up to 81% in and 64.9% for Trump.

It was 68.3% Trump in 2016.

Doesn't look like a rural swing to Trump there at least so far, and that is the highest % reported of any IN counties so far. Trump at best for him will maybe catch up to his 2016 vote share there I would think.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2020, 07:03:00 PM »

You love to see it.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2020, 07:04:58 PM »
Quote from: DrScholl on November 03, 2020, 07:03:30 PM
Trump is up 56-43 in Pasco County with 79%. He won it 59-37 in 2016.

That is just early vote, but is a good improvement for Biden. Hopefully it holds up with the election day...
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2020, 07:07:02 PM »
Florida looks promising for Biden so far, but need the election day vote to hold up...
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,890
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2020, 07:08:44 PM »

Let's hope Ossof breaks 50%, because I doubt any Dem is going to win a runoff in particular if Biden wins the Presidency.
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