So yea we all of have seen the wealthy towns that swung to Hillary but.....

[AN63093]

As I posted in the other thread (wealthy areas swinging towards Clinton), there are areas out there, but it's going to take a little more research and poking around.  In other words, it will take a bit more personal knowledge of the areas to know what to look for, as opposed to just picking out rich counties, towns, etc., at random in any given state.

As I mentioned in the other thread, here are a couple ideas right off the bat:

-Putnam County NY (MHI $96k, 7th highest in US), swung and trend R
-Calvert County MD (MHI $87k, 19th highest in US), swung and trend R
-St Mary's County MD (MHI $86k, 21st highest in US), swung and trend R
-Suffolk County NY (MHI $86k, 22nd highest in US), swung and trend R
-Stafford County VA (MHI $98k, 6th highest in US), swung R, trended D
-Nassau County NY (MHI $93k, 13th highest in US), swung R, trended D


If we dig into those counties, we may find a possible "answer" as to the highest income area that trended towards Trump.  I'm very familiar with all these counties (from NYC originally, have lived in DC, currently live in VA).

The NY counties are Long Island, with the exception of Putnam, which is a far northern exurb (north of even Westchester).  Putnam is about the farthest north I've ever heard of people actually commuting into the city (the Metro North commuter train does connect it to Manhattan, but you're looking at a 90 min+ train ride).

The MD and VA counties are all DC suburbs.  Calvert and St Marys are Southeast of DC along the Chesapeake.  People will commute into DC from these areas by car (no train connection).  Calvert is more doable, St Marys is a brutal long drive (but I knew people that did it). Stafford VA is south of DC on I-95 along the Potomac, between the Quantico Marine Corps Base and Fredericksburg.  People will also commute to DC from here, either car or by commuter rail (Virginia Railway Express).  Fredericksburg is about as far south as you'll find people regularly commuting into DC.


These are all affluent suburbs (and exurbs)... however, I should point out that they have quite a different... character... than some of these other wealthy communities.  It's partly because they're "new money," sure, but that's not just it.. because, after all, you can find plenty of new money in counties like Westchester NY (Scarsdale is a good example of this), and Westchester had a strong D trend.  The right words escape me at the moment... but people familiar with these areas will know what I'm talking about.  Long Island NY, in a lot of ways, "feels" more like Calvert County MD, than it does Westchester or Fairfield CT.

Anyway, NOVA G- by way of reply to your post in the other thread, this is both an invitation for others to contribute, and also stating an intent to do a little digging into this myself (partly out of sheer curiosity and I'm a huge geek when it comes to demographics).  By the way, regarding those RI areas, what you posted in the other thread (quoting the person commenting on RI communities) has some truth to it.  I'm pretty familiar with RI too, since I spent a ton of my summers there, and those areas of RI.. while the MHI has gone up in the past 15 years or so, they aren't what you'd consider "traditionally rich" areas.  In all honesty, most of RI is actually quite a working class state; the history and demographics of the state are quite a bit different than say, southwestern CT.  Sure, a bunch of robber barons and what not built large vacation houses in Newport RI in the late 1800s, but the people that actually lived there year-round were a completely different demographic.

[AN63093]

I have found a few initial candidates in Stafford County, VA.  Will comb through a couple of these other counties later.

Brooke, VA, $124,185 MHI

2016, 60.7-33.5, R+27.2
2012, 59.9-38.4, R+21.5
Swing R +5.7

Roseville, VA, $129,375 MHI

2016, 50.6-41.8, R+8.8
2012, 52.8-45.7, R+7.1
Swing R +1.7


Both are unincorporated exurbs of DC.  Brooke is connected to DC by VRE commuter rail, but it's pretty far out there.  Roseville is basically on the other side of I-95 from Brooke.  Although you can commute in by rail from there, it feels more rural than urban or even suburban.  Also land out there is still cheap.  You can buy up a giant lot for less than $500k, which is unheard of closer to DC.

[AN63093]

Decided to go ahead and do one more, from Putnam County, NY.


Carmel, NY, $102,457 MHI

2016, 61.8-33.4, R+28.4
2012, 60.4-38, R+22.4
Swing R +6


As I mentioned above, this area is a far northern exurb of NYC.  It is connected to Manhattan by Metro North commuter train, but you're looking at a 90 min commute (minimum, that's just to Grand Central, so you'd have to add time if you don't work in Midtown).

The area is rural in character and heavily wooded.  Similar to the VA areas I posted, you can easily find homes under $500k here with the works (garage, huge yard, etc.).  This would be absolutely impossible closer to the city.

[AN63093]

So the LongIsland thing I just find so odd like I have been all over the upper northeast and every area I look up trended to Hillary the only place I have ever seen that is wealthy that trended to trump was longisland it's just odd since longisland has been democrat since the nineties and the fact that trump won it is so odd.
Also does anyone are oysterbay town results because on the DDHQ map it's hard to tell since every precinct either had a massive swing to Hillary or Trump

Well, keep in mind it's not just LI.  Also swinging R was Putnam Cty NY, and several counties in MD and VA near DC (I've posted some town details above).

I'll see what I can dig up on Oyster Bay and some other areas in Nassau that I'm curious about once I have a little time to go into LI results.  Keep in mind that the town boundaries of Oyster Bay actually cover quite a large section of the county, so it may not be all that helpful.  Narrowing down to the village boundaries within Oyster Bay will probably tell you more.

I haven't fully formed a theory on this yet, but my research into Putnam NY and around DC has given me a few initial thoughts.  Namely, that some of the areas in the Mid-Atlantic that swung towards Trump were exurbs that are so far out from the city center that they're almost rural areas, but are still connected by commuter train or within an hour's drive to the city.  The median household income in these areas is pretty high but the land values out in these areas is still low enough that housing is relatively affordable.

Now this won't describe all the places; like Nassau is a little closer in and not so rural, so something different is going on there.  Also this won't describe some of the wealthy Mountain West and Plains areas that I suspect swung to Trump (part of this is suspicion, part of this is confirmed by what NOVA G posted above).

[AN63093]

Something I should mention as well is that Nassau county is the most Jewish county in America at 18% again not a great demographic for republicans plus I'm pretty sure Nassau county is the 17th wealthiest county in America and yes oysterbay is very big there are over 300,000 people living there but I don't know if you have been but I have I went for teddy Roosevelt house but anyways there are tons of million dollar homes right next to TR house is the owner of the New York knicks home .

Nassau is the 13th richest.  Well, going by median household income, that is.

Yes, I've been to Oyster Bay, LOL.  I grew up in NY and my family has property in Manhattan and Long Island, so I'm very familiar with all the ins-and-outs in this region of the country.

The village within Oyster Bay that you're talking about (TR's house, the Dolans, etc), is Cove Neck (MHI, $195k).  It went for Clinton 48.2-44.9, Romney 56.4-42.1, for a D swing of +17.6.


I don't have time to really dig into Nassau comprehensively right now, but just by a quick search, it appears some of the interior towns were more likely to swing R than the coastal areas.  As an example, northern portions of:

Levittown, NY, $105,568 MHI

2016, Trump 54.2-42.4, R+11.8
2012, Obama 50.5-48.4, D+2
Swing R +13.8


The southern tracts of-
Hicksville, NY, $104,688 MHI

2016, Trump 51.7-45.2, R+6.5
2012, Obama 53.5-43.7, D+9.8
Swing R +16.3


Salisbury, NY, $108,625 MHI

2016, Trump 47.7-46.9, R+0.8
2012, Obama 53.8-44.8, D+9
Swing R +9.8


Those areas are very different than the areas you're thinking about along the coast, with large sprawling estates and what not.  The areas I posted above are post-WW2 suburban development, never-ending sprawl of 1950s cookie-cutter style homes, along meandering streets, etc.  It's some of the most stereotypical "American suburbia."

As far as your comment about the Jewish population- well, one of two things is happening; either a) Jews in Nassau are more R than usual; and/or b) the areas that swung R in Nassau were not very Jewish.  I suspect it's mostly "b"... the areas I listed above are some of the least Jewish areas in Nassau.

[AN63093]

http://projects.newsday.com/long-island/politics/how-long-island-voted/


Interactive map you can click on individual precincts for 2012 and 2016.  As I mentioned, the areas that swung to Trump are some of these interior suburbs like Levittown, Hicksville, Salisbury, etc.  Hicksville is part of the town of Oyster Bay (keep in mind this town covers almost all of eastern Nassau), and the rest are part of Hempstead.

You can find lots of areas that voted for Trump (even by huge margins), but finding areas that swung to Trump is more of a challenge.  So far I'm thinking the areas around Levittown look like the highest income areas that swung to Trump.

[AN63093]

Agreed.  I've only registered/starting posting recently (just never had the time before), but have popped in now-and-then for almost 10 years.. mostly to read posts on demographics, geography, population trends, redistricting, etc.  There's been a lot of good work on this forum over the years.

One thing that I think would be a fascinating topic to really dig into (and one that I've speculated upon a tad above, but haven't gotten the chance to really analyze yet), is what distinguished the wealthy areas that swung Clinton, over those that swung Trump.

I know that 538 had an article about this, and if I recall correctly, they suggested it was educational level.  The implication being that the more "professional" types tended D, as opposed to the people who didn't have that education but were nonetheless wealthy.  An example of that might be a general contractor who learned a trade and eventually came to own/expand a successful construction business, something like that.

I'm not sure that I buy that entirely.  On one hand, there may be some evidence to support that.  For example, I would say that, at least from personal knowledge, there would tend to be more of those people in a place like Levittown NY (swung R), than Fairfield CT (swung D).  But that doesn't explain everywhere that I've discovered so far.  Another trend I noticed that I discussed above, was that far exurb areas that are not easy commutes (e.g. 90 min train rides to DC or NY) that had high household incomes, but still had affordable housing, swung R.  

One place I'm going to jump into next is the western US.. I expect to find several examples in the plains states and Mountain West (you've already done some of this work).

[AN63093]

I don't think characterizing those counties as culturally Southern explains why they swung R.  Lots of wealthy Southern communities swung D, in fact, arguably most of them did (see the other thread- wealthy communities that swung D).

Additionally, the Pax River base doesn't particularly help explain it either.  You could say the same thing for almost every county in the DC area; not all of them swung R.  Even your own example of Pensacola (Escambia Cty) both trended and swung D in 2016.

[AN63093]

Well then explain to me why other areas with a military base driving the local economy swung and trended D.  Your own example of Pensacola swung/trended D.  There are plenty of other examples too, even just in MD.  For example, Frederick County's economy is driven by Ft Detrick, which is also its largest employer.  Frederick Cty both swung/trended D.

[AN63093]

So unfortunately AN63093 hasn't posted since 11/21/17 on Atlas, who helped provide some perspectives and analysis on what is a generally considered a minor footnote to the "Conventional Wisdom" regarding the 2016 Presidential Election.

Forgive the ancient thread bump- I'm back.  Circumstances were such that I didn't have time to post much through 2018 so I went back to lurking, but hopefully I'll have some more time to post now- particularly on issues of demographic trends, which is my favorite topic on this forum and why I started coming here in the first place.

If I have some time I may take this back up again, mainly to satisfy my own curiosity, but it appears the current winner of wealthiest location to swing R are areas in Stafford County, VA (between Quantico and Fredericksburg along I-95, DC exurbs), with median household incomes in the $120k range and swings of about R +1 to +6.  Some of these areas still, nonetheless, trended D.

Second place, at least so far, would appear to be some interior areas of Long Island, with incomes in the low 100s.

As I discussed on the last page, I do have a theory about the demographics of these areas, but that would tend to only be true for large metros in the Mid-Atlantic... when it comes to some of the western counties you posted NOVA G, I'm not sure the same thing is going on.  Especially with the pacific NW areas (this is my least knowledgeable area of the country, honestly).

King/Skill-Chance's point is also well taken.. yes, obviously none of these areas would be considered the "wealthy elite" of the country.  For example, in Stafford VA, you may have a single family household with two higher level GS federal employees doing the long commute into DC.. their combined income at the DC locality area could easily be over 200k/yr- well off, and certainly very comfortable by the American average.  But no one would be confusing them for Mitt Romney either.

By the way- Skill and Chance may be right about what the likeliest candidate for a truly "elite" area to swing R would be... I would suggest that perhaps this candidate would be somewhere in the plains states.  I wouldn't know where to start looking though.. could be Oklahoma, one of the Dakotas maybe?  Texas?  We're talking about a needle in a haystack here, and it'd be at the precinct level that we'd have to look.