Is Obama unstoppable?

[Skill and Chance]

The Republicans need either a recession or a genius nominee.  They definitely don't have a genius right now.

Well, I'd qualify that as 'if the economy doesn't blow up again by Nov. 2012' since the real unemployment figures are obviously in the teens right now.  However, as it stands now I'd say too early to tell for once. The GOP field looks weak and his approvals are simply mediocre (if very heavily racially skewed) as opposed to god awful.

And what were Bush's approvals among white Evangelicals?  Probably over 75%, even in 2008.  Did Kennedy ever fall below 90% approval among Catholic voters?  Identity politics isn't confined to just one subset of the population, you know.

[Zarn]

The Republicans need either a recession or a genius nominee.  They definitely don't have a genius right now.

Well, I'd qualify that as 'if the economy doesn't blow up again by Nov. 2012' since the real unemployment figures are obviously in the teens right now.  However, as it stands now I'd say too early to tell for once. The GOP field looks weak and his approvals are simply mediocre (if very heavily racially skewed) as opposed to god awful.

And what were Bush's approvals among white Evangelicals?  Probably over 75%, even in 2008.  Did Kennedy ever fall below 90% approval among Catholic voters?  Identity politics isn't confined to just one subset of the population, you know.

Did he ever have 90%?

[krazen1211]

Did he ever have 90%?

He had 90% of the entire nation at one point.

[Dgov]

Any incumbent with an approval below 50% constantly before the election is never unstoppable.

This.  We're not talking about some formidable juggernaut of modern politics here.  The only reason you can even call Obama favored is because the Republican field is so dismal.

[Mehmentum]

Any incumbent with an approval below 50% constantly before the election is never unstoppable.

This.  We're not talking about some formidable juggernaut of modern politics here.  The only reason you can even call Obama favored is because the Republican field is so dismal.

Not really, incumbents have a whole set of advantages that makes them automatically favored (though not guarenteed) to win. 

[RogueBeaver]

Unless the economy double-dips or an Islamist takeover occurs in a Middle Eastern country, then basically yes. He's a stronger candidate than any of the Republican candidates IMO.

[Brittain33]

I tend to think that dismal fields are a result of lack of opportunity and hidden incumbent strength, not the intrinsic qualities of the candidates. If the 2012 election were more open for Republican victory, the Republicans would look stronger and people would care less about their weaknesses. But because Obama has advantages that are obscured by the 2010 election results, the Republicans have problems.

If Obama were running in 2004 against Bush as a first-term senator elected in 2000, his defects as a candidate would have been much more prominent.

[feeblepizza]

I voted for Option 4, but I'm not sure. The GOP very well may screw up. And who knows, really, because at this point in 2007 I believe Giuliani was the front-runner (?).

[DS0816]

Obama can be stopped by a combination of a reasonable GOP nominee (not a Palin or Gingrich) and worsening economic conditions.

There is no reasonable Republican, because there is no divorcing any such candidate from his party.

[°Leprechaun]

I voted for
"They'll screw it up by picking [insert candidate here]"
Because I believe that the Republicans would have to pick an outstanding
candidate to have a chance against Obama.

All of the following are possible answers (for me), however:

The economy has to go into a double dip recession
They don't stand a chance (well the do stand a chance but not a good one)
Still too early to tell (this may be the best answer for obvious reasons)

[°Leprechaun]

I would insert Huckabee, but that is because he is a likely candidate, it may be someone who hasn't been talked about or even someone like Jeb Bush. Huckabee is not necessarily a terrible candidate, although he is very conservative, but Obama could beat him according to recent polls.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Obama got a post mid-term bounce, but that is starting to fade...and fast.  Obama faces very bad things in the 18 months regarding the economy and geopolitics, but the GOP doesn't have a candidate...yet.

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Nope. Recent polls show the mid-term/Tucson glow fading: http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&rlz=1C1DVCK_enAU396&tbs=nws:1&q=obama+polls&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=

The economy is weak, with still near-10% unemployment officially- and large numbers of defacto unemployed mean the real number is about 20%(http://sandiegonewsroom.com/news/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=43261:how-accurate-is-the-federal-unemployment-rate-&catid=230:economy&Itemid=261). If it doesn't fall below 8%  come election time, he will be favored against someone like Palin and competitive against someone like Gingrich, but Romney/Huckabee/*insert non-crazy dark horse* will have a pretty easy time of it methinks.

And my gut feeling through observing the general global instability presently is that he'll be unlikely to pass through the next two years without serious foreign humiliation. He's had embarrasments so far(Copenhagen, missing withdrawal deadline for Iraq war), but no humiliation yet- don't expect that lucky streak to continue.

Public sector unions are coming under attack in important Midwestern states, which will weaken the Democratic organization in those states, while Citizens United continues to present the Republicans with a sizable boon.

[Skill and Chance]

Nope. Recent polls show the mid-term/Tucson glow fading: http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&rlz=1C1DVCK_enAU396&tbs=nws:1&q=obama+polls&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=

The economy is weak, with still near-10% unemployment officially- and large numbers of defacto unemployed mean the real number is about 20%(http://sandiegonewsroom.com/news/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=43261:how-accurate-is-the-federal-unemployment-rate-&catid=230:economy&Itemid=261). If it doesn't fall below 8%  come election time, he will be favored against someone like Palin and competitive against someone like Gingrich, but Romney/Huckabee/*insert non-crazy dark horse* will have a pretty easy time of it methinks.

And my gut feeling through observing the general global instability presently is that he'll be unlikely to pass through the next two years without serious foreign humiliation. He's had embarrasments so far(Copenhagen, missing withdrawal deadline for Iraq war), but no humiliation yet- don't expect that lucky streak to continue.

Public sector unions are coming under attack in important Midwestern states, which will weaken the Democratic organization in those states, while Citizens United continues to present the Republicans with a sizable boon.

I think most Americans are quite happy about what is happening in the Middle East right now.  That could change if oil prices skyrocket, of course, but how you can possibly call the overthrow of several unamerican and undemocratic dictators anything other than a big foreign policy victory for America is beyond me. 

As for unemployment, it is undoubtedly a huge issue and is abnormally high right now.  That being said, in economist's terms, the end of a recession normally corresponds with the peak in unemployment, not the recovery of unemployment.  And that near 20% number you are citing (U6), rarely drops below 10%, even in major economic booms.

[opebo]

... how you can possibly call the overthrow of several unamerican and undemocratic dictators anything other than a big foreign policy victory for America is beyond me. 

Um, dude, those guys were as american as apple pie - for the most part they were our men, with a CIA liaison debriefing them every day.  Don't you know that this revolution (islamist or not), is a disaster for american foreign policy? Now I agree many americans won't understand this, but I don't think even those are pleased by seeing all those bearded men in the streets.