Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[NOVA Green]

Sorry edited my OP since my Grandmother lived in Kingston and thought I had included it in my post.

[Minnesota Mike]

Had a surprise update from AK-AL tonight.

Begich, Nick REP 50,458 28.00%
Palin, Sarah REP 56,246 31.21%
Peltola, Mary S. DEM 70,730 39.25%
Write-in 2,760 1.53%
Total Votes 180,194

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SSPG/ElectionSummaryReportRPTS.pdf

[NOVA Green]

Had a surprise update from AK-AL tonight.

Begich, Nick REP 50,458 28.00%
Palin, Sarah REP 56,246 31.21%
Peltola, Mary S. DEM 70,730 39.25%
Write-in 2,760 1.53%
Total Votes 180,194

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SSPG/ElectionSummaryReportRPTS.pdf

So if you tracking what is still out, especially when it comes to the current RCV election laws?

Do we have results yet broken down by SD's and HD's available in a query based format by precinct?

Generally in AK tend to follow the GE numbers, prior to this whole new RCV system, so bit like ME when they first adopted, really difficult to translate and much longer election returns to finalize results.

[Minnesota Mike]

Had a surprise update from AK-AL tonight.

Begich, Nick REP 50,458 28.00%
Palin, Sarah REP 56,246 31.21%
Peltola, Mary S. DEM 70,730 39.25%
Write-in 2,760 1.53%
Total Votes 180,194

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SSPG/ElectionSummaryReportRPTS.pdf

So if you tracking what is still out, especially when it comes to the current RCV election laws?

Do we have results yet broken down by SD's and HD's available in a query based format by precinct?

Generally in AK tend to follow the GE numbers, prior to this whole new RCV system, so bit like ME when they first adopted, really difficult to translate and much longer election returns to finalize results.

I have no idea what or how much is still out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Apparently Della Pia swept every vote cast in Ithaca proper. It’s very rare for a candidate to win 100% of the vote in a batch of anything greater than about 30 votes. An 144 - 0 vote shows how toxic Rs are for these types of communities

[wbrocks67]

I think that update would mean there's still 8-10K ballots left to count in AK, which could bring Peltola to 40%+

[windjammer]

I have the feeling the outcome might depend on the write ins votes, again lol

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1563253095915671552

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1563253095915671552

Imagine telling someone a month ago that AK-AL would be closer than NY-19.

[ajc0918]

Sorry if i missed it but why do we think Peltola will get 1/3 of Begich's votes? What's the rationale behind republicans listing a democrat second?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wish Alaska reported second preferences immediately like Minnesota does. Then we'd probably already have an idea.

I actually think Peltola is a slight favorite at this point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sorry if i missed it but why do we think Peltola will get 1/3 of Begich's votes? What's the rationale behind republicans listing a democrat second?

Because polls show that Palin is deeply unpopular with Begich voters. That doesn't mean that those voters of his will all rank Peltola next but they may just not rank anyone at all.

[soundchaser]

I wish Alaska reported second preferences immediately like Minnesota does. Then we'd probably already have an idea.

I actually think Peltola is a slight favorite at this point.

Agreed on both counts. I suspect it's going to come down to the bullet votes - 4.7% seems awfully low to me.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So right now Palin would need 64% of Begich voters' second preferences to overcome Peltola. That doesn't sound like a big lift.

HOWEVER that's assuming all Begich voters cast a second preference. If we assume say a quarter abstained, that means Palin would need his voters who do have a second preference to break about 70-30 for Palin/Peltola to overcome Peltola's lead. Also doesn't sound tough for a Republican but considering how unpopular Palin is with his voters... we'll see.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So right now Palin would need 64% of Begich voters' second preferences to overcome Peltola. That doesn't sound like a big lift.

HOWEVER that's assuming all Begich voters cast a second preference. If we assume say a quarter abstained, that means Palin would need his voters who do have a second preference to break about 70-30 for Palin/Peltola to overcome Peltola's lead. Also doesn't sound tough for a Republican but considering how unpopular Palin is with his voters... we'll see.

Given that this is the first election in Alaska with ranked choice, I wouldn't be surprised if we have more than 1/4 of ballots exhausted after the first choice.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So right now Palin would need 64% of Begich voters' second preferences to overcome Peltola. That doesn't sound like a big lift.

HOWEVER that's assuming all Begich voters cast a second preference. If we assume say a quarter abstained, that means Palin would need his voters who do have a second preference to break about 70-30 for Palin/Peltola to overcome Peltola's lead. Also doesn't sound tough for a Republican but considering how unpopular Palin is with his voters... we'll see.

Given that this is the first election in Alaska with ranked choice, I wouldn't be surprised if we have more than 1/4 of ballots exhausted after the first choice.

Last Minneapolis mayoral election had a 1/4 dropoff between first and second round so this is probably way more. However that's kind of an apples/oranges comparison because I bet a lot of Democrats just voted Peltola and then let their ballots exhaust, probably well over a quarter of Peltola voters had no second pref. The question is if there was a higher than 25% exhaust rate of Begich voters... evidence points to likely.

[Smash255]

Sorry if i missed it but why do we think Peltola will get 1/3 of Begich's votes? What's the rationale behind republicans listing a democrat second?

Sarah Palin is well Sarah Palin.  If pretty much any Generic R was in 2nd with similar #'s (or if it was Begich in 2nd and Palin in 3rd with similar #'s) the R's would likely have it in the bag.  However, Palin is extremely toxic, even among some R leaning voters.   There may have been enough Begich voters that couldn't stomach voting for Palin that they either voted for the Democrat in Peltola 2nd or simply left the 2nd choice blank. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Peltola does pull off an upset, I don't know that we can say it had much to do with the national environment themes like we've seen in other special elections' swings, but it does fit into the theme of the GOP nominating s*** candidates who are turning elections into referendums on them. That's what this race is, at its most distilled, a referendum on Palin.

[wbrocks67]

Pat Ryan (D) 51.10%
Marc Molinaro (R) 48.72%

Tiny bit more votes were counted in NY-19, Ryan moves from +2.2 to +2.4

[NOVA Green]

Apparently Della Pia swept every vote cast in Ithaca proper. It’s very rare for a candidate to win 100% of the vote in a batch of anything greater than about 30 votes. An 144 - 0 vote shows how toxic Rs are for these types of communities

Sounds like a college precinct if you ask me...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Apparently Della Pia swept every vote cast in Ithaca proper. It’s very rare for a candidate to win 100% of the vote in a batch of anything greater than about 30 votes. An 144 - 0 vote shows how toxic Rs are for these types of communities

Sounds like a college precinct if you ask me...

Ithaca is the textbook definition of a college town.

Still you'd think there'd be bound to be that one student who came from a conservative religious family and votes reliably R or smtg.

[walleye26]

I’m just here waiting for the Alaska drop….

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1563373089773068290?s=21&t=ImEKx6RT...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ak_elections/status/1563375087461728258?s=20&t=FL-5EIbsB...

The final count for the special election is on Tuesday, the primary counts are declared to be done. There are probably about 2-4K votes left based on the number released today compared to various trackers and estimates. Sounds like they wanted to get it all done but ran out of time. These are the challenged votes and a few distant precincts, so speed is not exactly easy.

[Sorenroy]

I think we've finally gotten to the point where I'd definitively rather be Peltola than Palin. While I'm unfamiliar with who those last outstanding ballots should favor in Alaska, it's not hard to imagine that Alaska's "questioned ballots" - like North Carolina's "provisional ballots" - will generally match the rest of the votes in the state (or maybe even favor the Democrat).

Right now, Peltola's up 16,347 votes and Begich has 52,320 that can be transferred under the instant runoff. Palin will need to get ~66% of those votes to overtake Peltola, and that's without any ballot exhaustion. The two polls conducted after Gross dropped out by Alaska Survey Research showed Palin getting between 65% and 67% of the redistributed votes and both of those polls showed near identical first round numbers to what has occurred so far. Only a 7% ballot exhaustion puts Palin on the wrong side of those polls.

Even under the hypothetical where the Write-in votes break down in the same way as Begich's, that exhaustion only needs to go up to about 12%, which is in-line with regular exhaustion numbers in places that have been using ranked choice voting already.

It's still well within a tossup range - bad assumptions about who's favored in outstanding ballots or a minor polling error within the acceptable MoE could throw these estimates off - but I would rather be Peltola right now based on what data we do have.