PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

[Horus]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

Lamb doesn't have the social media chops Ossoff does nor is he really appealing to younger voters. He strikes me as a Buttigieg type, a young straight laced guy who old people love.

[Not Me, Us]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

I'm gonna be honest, I'd rather lose with Fetterman, Cartwright, or Kenyatta than win with Lamb. I cannot handle another Sinema sabotaging the Democratic agenda at every opportunity for "bipartisanship" points back home.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I bet Fetterman would be leading the pack if the primary polls were out today. With him leading by double digits and everyone else in single digits


Of course PA hasn't elected an AA statewide office holder, Obama got elected in 2004/ and he was moderate not ultra liberal

Jesse Jackson would have been in Senate, but Rs didn't want Jr to be Prez so with Judy Base Topinka, they hurt his chances by stopping his Senate bid and got Kirk elected instead

[GALeftist]

Still with Fetterman; I'm not opposed to Kenyatta, but the fact that he endorsed Biden so quickly doesn't sit right with me wrt devotion to progressive ideals. With that being said, I'm not sure which would win in a 1v1; obviously Fetterman is probably bigger outside of Philly, but SEPA is so huge in Dem primaries it might not matter. I sort of don't think it will be a 1v1, though, I have a feeling we'll be seeing more entries.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

- I’m also not really convinced that nominating Kenyatta will have a big impact on AA turnout outside of maybe his district.  The best way to get the base to turnout is to nuke or gut the filibuster and pass progressive legislation that either directly effects people or is a major priority for the Democratic base.

Stacey Abrams has given us the framework for organizing, specifically in black communities. We know that midterms come down to turnout and no matter who the Democrats nominate, we need every vote possible. We have a ton of votes in Philly, Pittsburgh, Erie, Montco/Bucks/Delco that are heavily favorable for Dems. A lot of those voters are black. Organizers in PA know this, specifically the ones working in those areas. There's a compelling case to make that Fetterman can help win back WWC voters in places like Erie and Luzerne and Lackawanna but that's inherently an uphill battle because they've already demonstrated willingness to vote for Trumpist candidates. Winning black voters in Philly and Pittsburgh and the collar counties is inherently favorable towards Democrats and just comes down to turnout. If Kenyatta is the type of person who can turn those people out, his case is equally compelling.

There's no evidence that Kenyatta would get us higher than usual AA turnout.  And Georgia is a turnout state, not a turnout + persuasion state like PA.  What little evidence we have suggests Kenyatta is at least as likely to under-perform Generic D as over-perform. 

[VAR]

I'm gonna be honest, I'd rather lose with Fetterman, Cartwright, or Kenyatta than win with Lamb.

You’d rather Pennsylvania be represented by a literal fascist in the Senate than a non-fascist just because you don’t like the non-fascist?

[Left Wing]

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

Cartwright massively overperformed and Lamb actually did a little worse than Biden iirc (If not, he barely did better). And as for the district point, assuming that 2022 House elections are conducted under redistricted maps, likely either Cartwright or Susan Wild will be cut, if he’s the one being cut there’s no reason for him to try and run in an unwinnable district while the senate seat is sitting right in front of him.

[Lambsbread]

I'm gonna be honest, I'd rather lose with Fetterman, Cartwright, or Kenyatta than win with Lamb. I cannot handle another Sinema sabotaging the Democratic agenda at every opportunity for "bipartisanship" points back home.

Nah, I'm gonna have to disagree with you here. I've made my dislike of Lamb pretty clear, but he is leagues and leagues ahead of any of the goobers the GOP would nominate, and significantly better than Pat Toomey at that. We can certainly do much better than Lamb, but he is by no means a Sinema, more like a Casey. He'll vote with Democrats on almost every issue but he won't go out of his way to push anything bold or progressive.

There's no evidence that Kenyatta would get us higher than usual AA turnout.  And Georgia is a turnout state, not a turnout + persuasion state like PA.  What little evidence we have suggests Kenyatta is at least as likely to under-perform Generic D as over-perform. 

The point is about organizing on the ground. If Kenyatta's ability to get organizers to turn out the vote is successful, the persuasion element becomes less important. Still important, but he at least can count on maxing out the most favorable areas to begin with. He also does have a pretty strong persuasion argument, at least similar to Fetterman. He already has the backing of a lot of teachers unions and will almost certainly get the endorsement of other unions if he manages to clear the field. Plus Biden owes him pretty big for being one of his most prominent surrogates, I could see Joe coming to PA and stumping for Malcolm. Not sure if he would do the same for Fetterman. You can't get much more persuasive than the President of the United States, who flipped the state back to blue, coming to stump for you. Not to mention that Obama may also have a stake in elevating Kenyatta...he seems to be the best of both worlds. I know establishment types like Fetterman because he has been a strong surrogate in defending Governor Wolf and going on national news to debunk the right's terrible election lies, but he is also an open Democratic Socialist. That may strike some fear into the hearts of some voters. I'm not trying to make an electoral case against Fetterman, but just give you a fuller scope of where the shortcomings may lie and where Kenyatta might be stronger.

[VAR]

It’s not like Sinema has ever “sabotaged” the Democratic agenda either.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

Lamb doesn't have the social media chops Ossoff does nor is he really appealing to younger voters. He strikes me as a Buttigieg type, a young straight laced guy who old people love.

Buttigieg at least had the sense not to oppose decriminalised marijuana. Lamb says he's in favour of it 'in a serious way' but has voted on it in a way that'd make Tipper Gore proud. It's the sort of galaxy brained political posturing which actively repels voters across the political spectrum.

[Meatball Ron]

but he is also an open Democratic Socialist. That may strike some fear into the hearts of some voters. I'm not trying to make an electoral case against Fetterman, but just give you a fuller scope of where the shortcomings may lie and where Kenyatta might be stronger.

Yeah - I think socialist / AOC type attacks that we saw in 2020 congressional races could land on Fetterman unfortunately given how open he's been with that label - would blunt any inroads he'll supposedly make in Obama-Trump areas, and potentially hurt a bit in the suburbs as well

[wbrocks67]

It’s not like Sinema has ever “sabotaged” the Democratic agenda either.

yeah this is just such a ridiculous and exagerated point. Sinema has been a loyal vote on everything important to date. This whole "all or nothing" from progressives is getting really ridiculous.

[President Johnson]

I actually expected Fetterman to be virtually unopposed in the primary or maybe just one challenger who's a very moderate Democrat like Conor Lamb. Hopefully Tom Wolf endorses his second in command soon. Anyway, I like Fetterman and think he would be a fine addition to the senate caucus and a reasonable voice for the progressive wing. Although he's to my left, I wholeheartedly support his bid and hope he becomes a senator.

[ctherainbow]

 Plus, we just ran a progressive AA from Philly proper who had a higher profile than Kenyatta - Nina Ahmad - and she under-performed the rest of the ticket.

What?  Nina is Bangladeshi-American, and I can assure you that Bangladesh is not a country in Africa.         She mentioned her heritage in pretty much every single interview she did, so if you know enough about her candidacy to call her progressive, I’m not sure how you missed this.

[AGA]

I'm gonna be honest, I'd rather lose with Fetterman, Cartwright, or Kenyatta than win with Lamb.

You’d rather Pennsylvania be represented by a literal fascist in the Senate than a non-fascist just because you don’t like the non-fascist?

[VAR]

I'm gonna be honest, I'd rather lose with Fetterman, Cartwright, or Kenyatta than win with Lamb.

You’d rather Pennsylvania be represented by a literal fascist in the Senate than a non-fascist just because you don’t like the non-fascist?

I was just trying to convince him, lol.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

Lamb doesn't have the social media chops Ossoff does nor is he really appealing to younger voters. He strikes me as a Buttigieg type, a young straight laced guy who old people love.

Buttigieg at least had the sense not to oppose decriminalised marijuana. Lamb says he's in favour of it 'in a serious way' but has voted on it in a way that'd make Tipper Gore proud. It's the sort of galaxy brained political posturing which actively repels voters across the political spectrum.

Lamb also lacks Buttigieg’s exceptionally strong and broad policy knowledge and if anything, Shapiro is the one whose base overlaps more with Buttigieg’s base (well-educated suburbanites)   Lamb is also generally well to Pete’s right ideologically speaking.

Lamb and Pete aren’t very similar, at least imo.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

 Plus, we just ran a progressive AA from Philly proper who had a higher profile than Kenyatta - Nina Ahmad - and she under-performed the rest of the ticket.

What?  Nina is Bangladeshi-American, and I can assure you that Bangladesh is not a country in Africa.         She mentioned her heritage in pretty much every single interview she did, so if you know enough about her candidacy to call her progressive, I’m not sure how you missed this.

Honestly, I just assumed she was African-American w/o double-checking; that was clearly prejudice on my part.  Not much to do but admit the mistake and do better going forward

[Not Me, Us]

It’s not like Sinema has ever “sabotaged” the Democratic agenda either.

I'm gonna hard disagree here. Her weird obsession for maintaining the filibuster has absolutely hindered Democratic policy goals. Plus, she has killed using reconciliation for increasing the minimum wage. Manchin has done these as well, but he's the best we'll ever get out of WV. Sinema doesn't need to be as conservative as she is to win, Mark Kelly has shown that.

[brucejoel99]

It’s not like Sinema has ever “sabotaged” the Democratic agenda either.

I'm gonna hard disagree here. Her weird obsession for maintaining the filibuster has absolutely hindered Democratic policy goals. Plus, she has killed using reconciliation for increasing the minimum wage. Manchin has done these as well, but he's the best we'll ever get out of WV. Sinema doesn't need to be as conservative as she is to win, Mark Kelly has shown that.

I'd wait 'til she casts legitimate votes on the Senate floor to maintain the filibuster &/or keep the minimum wage out of the reconciliation package before asserting these statements as if they're pure fact. 'Til she's done so, there's frankly no reason to believe that what she's doing hasn't just been a bunch of Manchin-esque kabuki theater.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If a poll would be conducted today no Dem would be close to Fetterman it would be Fetterman 30% and everyone else 9, 9, 9%, I get that Ds want a Liberal but Fetterman is the odds on favorite and so is Tim Ryan and so is Jeff Jackson, and so is Tom Nelson, we already have our nominees

Fetterman is the only chance, Rafael Warnock won but he had Obama and Abrams and BIDEN coalition

[KaiserDave]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

I'm gonna be honest, I'd rather lose with Fetterman, Cartwright, or Kenyatta than win with Lamb. I cannot handle another Sinema sabotaging the Democratic agenda at every opportunity for "bipartisanship" points back home.

Or we could have a Republican that votes against 1% of everything good. So much worse than Lamb voting for 80% of everything good.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It’s not like Sinema has ever “sabotaged” the Democratic agenda either.

I'm gonna hard disagree here. Her weird obsession for maintaining the filibuster has absolutely hindered Democratic policy goals. Plus, she has killed using reconciliation for increasing the minimum wage. Manchin has done these as well, but he's the best we'll ever get out of WV. Sinema doesn't need to be as conservative as she is to win, Mark Kelly has shown that.

I'd wait 'til she casts legitimate votes on the Senate floor to maintain the filibuster &/or keep the minimum wage out of the reconciliation package before asserting these statements as if they're pure fact. 'Til she's done so, there's frankly no reason to believe that what she's doing hasn't just been a bunch of Manchin-esque kabuki theater.

Kabuki theatre that dramatically and consistently slows the legislative process hinders policy goals by lowering the number that can get passed in a two-year window and damaging the responsiveness (and thus, the efficacy) of government. Relief and nominations should not have taken this long.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

No matter how you feel about Kenyatta, you have to appreciate the gift of someone who's willing to con Blue MAGA into supporting a progressive.