PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[GALeftist]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

[Not Me, Us]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

Fully expected. I think he wants to avoid a potentially messy primary and knows that he won't face any real opposition in the gubernatorial primary, while the Senate one is probably going to be pretty crowded.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

Yeah, because he's running for Governor

[brucejoel99]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

Yeah, because he's running for Governor

As an old joke goes, A.G. actually stands for Almost Governor.

[Lognog]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

Yeah, because he's running for Governor

I cannot wait

[Not Me, Us]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

Yeah, because he's running for Governor

I cannot wait

Yeah, Shapiro's pretty awesome. I just hope he announces sooner rather than later to clear the field.

[FourEyedRick]

Malcolm Kenyatta IN. Announced on Joy Reid’s show.

[Zaybay]

With Kenyatta in, we now have a SEPA candidate in the race. Could be pretty formidable as long as he has that portion of the state to himself.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1362566508715651075?s=20

Didn’t expect him to get in. Endorsed.

[Meatball Ron]

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1362566508715651075?s=20

Didn’t expect him to get in. Endorsed.

Also endorsed. I was for Fetterman initially but hate how poorly he’s responded to the news around the jogger incident. I think Houlahan / Dean / Wild could all be good but I’m really bullish these days on running black candidates in swing states with sizable black populations / turnout issues.

[tosk]

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1362566508715651075?s=20

Didn’t expect him to get in. Endorsed.

I was going to say something like "blah blah liberal makes it easier for us to win" but that video is just stellar. He's got real talent. Making the jump is going to hard, but I could see him winning before Fetterman. Any insights on his chances in the primary?

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

[Ferguson97]

Kenyatta endorsed.

[The Houstonian]

Malcolm Kenyatta IN. Announced on Joy Reid’s show.

I see the Kenyan political dynasty has made its way into Pennsylvania.

EDIT: I am joking, I know Malcolm is not related to Jomo.

[Meatball Ron]

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

How do you peg the odds of Lamb, Houlahan, Wild, Dean getting in (each one individually)?

[Left Wing]

I feel like Kenyatta vs. Fetterman is going to end up as the next Kennedy vs. Markey on here. As in, a primary where supporters of both candidates get into bitter debates about who’s better when both basically have the same position on every issue. I really don’t see this seat flipping with a contentious primary like the one in 2016.

I just wish Matt Cartwright would run.

[brucejoel99]

2 candidates who'd both be considered good (if not great) picks - in addition to NC already having 2 candidates who are both better options than our 2020 nominee even pre-scandal - make for an abundance of riches. IIRC, somebody once said that the quality of recruits is an early barometer as to what the environment might turn out to be in the next election. If so, then collectively speaking, the good recruits with smart people & money behind them would imply that 2022's gonna turn out to be a good cycle for us.

Also not gonna lie, wouldn't be surprised to see a seemingly lower-tier figure like Kenyatta (a State Rep. compared to other candidates & potential candidates like the Lt. Gov & multiple congressmen) somehow sneak up through the middle a-la Braun & Feingold before him in the event that the top 2-3 frontrunners end up being individuals like Fetterman, Lamb, Cartwright, etc. who all inevitably focus their attention on each other rather than everyone across the whole field.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

How do you peg the odds of Lamb, Houlahan, Wild, Dean getting in (each one individually)?

Low for all of them.

[KaiserDave]

All I waanttt issss Matttttt (KaiserDave singing sadly in the mountains)


But yeah this makes this a wide open primary. I like Kenyatta but this campaign will tell me more about him. Will he go for Woke Blue Check #Socialism or will he focus on actual progressive populism? We shall see. So far I'd prefer Fetterman, but I honestly don't know.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

How do you peg the odds of Lamb, Houlahan, Wild, Dean getting in (each one individually)?

Lamb is very likely to get in. If he has been talking to Schumer already and has publicly admitted he’s thinking about it, then it would truly surprise me if he decided not to. He fills the moderate lane and knows he has the profile to win statewide if the progressive vote splits.

Houlahan, Wild, and Dean are pretty much a carousel and it would truly depend on which one wants it most. Dean and Houlahan are in the safer seats so maybe Wild would be most likely to get in based on what seat would be most worth it to sacrifice, but then again that argument could work in reverse and Dean, whose seat is safest, could run while someone else easily wins her seat for the Dems. She did also raise her profile quite a bit by being an impeachment manager. I think Houlahan is the most ambitious of the bunch, though, and I’ve seen her name floated the most among the three.

If I had to rank it based on percentages, I’d say Houlahan is probably 55%, Wild is like 40%, and Dean is maybe 25-30%?

All just speculation at this point though.

[KaiserDave]

I wouldn't be opposed to Lamb, he's not nearly as moderate as people say, but I'd prefer Cartwright, Fetterman, and Kenyatta.

[Not Me, Us]

Dang, I was hoping to avoid a divisive primary. My issue is honestly that I like both Fetterman and Kenyatta so much that I want to vote for both. I really wish Kenyatta had run for LG or something instead. Still with Fetterman for the moment, but I really like both, so my mind isn't completely made up yet.

[brucejoel99]

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

How do you peg the odds of Lamb, Houlahan, Wild, Dean getting in (each one individually)?

Lamb is very likely to get in. If he has been talking to Schumer already and has publicly admitted he’s thinking about it, then it would truly surprise me if he decided not to. He fills the moderate lane and knows he has the profile to win statewide if the progressive vote splits.

Wait, I thought he said (when he was publicly admitting his thinking about it, no less) he hadn't talked to Schumer yet?

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I feel like Kenyatta vs. Fetterman is going to end up as the next Kennedy vs. Markey on here. As in, a primary where supporters of both candidates get into bitter debates about who’s better when both basically have the same position on every issue. I really don’t see this seat flipping with a contentious primary like the one in 2016.

I just wish Matt Cartwright would run.

The difference is that neither candidate comes from a long political dynasty while being such an opportunist. JKIII clearly only wanted the seat because he wanted to angle himself for a Presidential run.

Dang, I was hoping to avoid a divisive primary. My issue is honestly that I like both Fetterman and Kenyatta so much that I want to vote for both. I really wish Kenyatta had run for LG or something instead. Still with Fetterman for the moment, but I really like both, so my mind isn't completely made up yet.

I’m with you here. I love them both and I wish they could both win. I’m pretty sure I’ll vote for Fetterman but if circumstances change and Kenyatta is in a better position to win come the day of the primary, I will happily vote for him.

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

How do you peg the odds of Lamb, Houlahan, Wild, Dean getting in (each one individually)?

Lamb is very likely to get in. If he has been talking to Schumer already and has publicly admitted he’s thinking about it, then it would truly surprise me if he decided not to. He fills the moderate lane and knows he has the profile to win statewide if the progressive vote splits.

Wait, I thought he said (when he was publicly admitting his thinking about it, no less) he hadn't talked to Schumer yet?

Oh, I guess I misread that article the first time. Well, the point still stands about him confirming his interest.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The first gay man senator being a black man is really stellar