Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[Skill and Chance]

Not doing the early voting analysis thing anymore.  I'm just not. 

Also, I recall from 2020 that Kansas has a huge pro-Dem reporting bias in the early returns.  Biden was leading for a while.  Perhaps they count mail ballots first?  In any event, No would need to be leading substantially in the initial count.

[Skill and Chance]

So we’re talking about a substantial loss or it coming down to the wire.

I remember Biden being up in the initial 2020 results, but not by 70/30.  

[Skill and Chance]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

Those were bans instead of constitutional carve outs.

Yes, this is fundamentally a more moderate pro-life referendum than those personhood votes.  This referendum is the equivalent of Dobbs at the state level if it passes.  It doesn't put an abortion ban in the constitution.    

[Skill and Chance]

Everyone keep in mind that if this is all EV, it could still get very close.  Remember the Oklahoma Medicaid Expansion referendum?

[Skill and Chance]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

I'll take 50.1% No. Even that would be seen in the media as a devastating rejection of Dobbs regardless of how grounded in history that interpretation would be.

IDK Kansas has always been considerably less pro-life than top line Republican, so it isn't the best example.  A devastating rejection of Dobbs would be if Kentucky rejects its abortion amendment in November.  However, it would still be significant for the Kansas pro-life referendum to underperform Trump that badly.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder if we would have been better off having this referendum in November.  It probably wouldn't have passed this year in Kansas, but I'm guessing that there was a bit of an enthusiasm gap in voting on this (especially with polls having showed yes ahead).  If it had been in November, turnout would have been higher across the board.  Remember that virtually identical amendments passed in Tennessee (despite being badly outspent), Alabama, and West Virginia.

Yes, there's an enthusiasm gap on abortion right now- with one side basking and celebrating an accomplishment, while the other side is fired up to vote (the reverse was true for the last 50 years).  But, I think I also underestimated how much less pro-life non-Southern (mostly non-evangelical) Republicans are to the ones that I'm familiar with and that helped pass this same amendment in recent cycles in three Southern states.

I'm guessing that the late ballots make it more like 60-40 and that it might have been 55-45 in November, but this is a massively disappointing result.  I truly expected to see that it had passed when I looked up the results as I left a young adults ministry tonight.

And got over 60% in Louisiana!  The South is a different ballgame.  I have little doubt the Kentucky amendment will also pass.  Every Southern state other than Virginia will probably have a 6 week or stricter ban next year (pending NC supermajority). 

Republicans outside the South should still take the opportunity to limit abortion more than Roe allowed. However, there is evidently a real risk of a revolt by libertarian/anti-lockdown type voters if a total ban is on the table.

[Skill and Chance]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

[Skill and Chance]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November?

No, but Georgia Republicans might.

[Skill and Chance]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November?

No, but Georgia Republicans might.

I'm not following what makes you think abortion would HELP Republicans as an issue in Georgia when the main takeaway from tonight is how much of a millstone the issue is going to be for the party in the coming years in vast swaths of the country if they don't tamp down their image with the public as being out of touch extremists on the matter.

I think it plays differently in the South.  Variations on the Kansas amendment routinely pass when put on the ballot in Southern states.

[Skill and Chance]

In light of the Kansas results, do you think SD and ND would vote to repeal their trigger bans if an initiative was put on the ballot?

[Skill and Chance]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November?

No, but Georgia Republicans might.

I'm not following what makes you think abortion would HELP Republicans as an issue in Georgia when the main takeaway from tonight is how much of a millstone the issue is going to be for the party in the coming years in vast swaths of the country if they don't tamp down their image with the public as being out of touch extremists on the matter.

I think it plays differently in the South.  Variations on the Kansas amendment routinely pass when put on the ballot in Southern states.

This is Georgia we are talking about, not Alabama or Tennessee or Mississippi, but Georgia. Treating the South as a monolithic bloc on this issue is very poor analysis.

Going extreme on abortion in a blue trending state that Biden won is a recipe for disaster for the GOP.

Georgia has a 6 week law, which polls very differently from a total ban.  I do believe the 6 week law would pass as a referendum there in a Dem president midterm. 

[Skill and Chance]

Does anybody know what is going on with the supreme court races? it would be a shame for this amendment to be defeated only for the supreme court to reverse it's 2019 ruling.

Supreme Court is appointed in Kansas. No elections.

The way a ruling reversal is prevented is by re-electing Kelly, who has appointed three of the seven justices currently on the court. There are also two still on the court from the governorship of Kathleen Sebelius, who was the only governor in state history to appoint a majority of the court (two of the four she appointed have since retired).

A Republican state with a 5D-2R court.

They still have to win retention elections.  Kelly's appointees are all up for retention this fall.  If they lose and she loses, Schmidt gets to appoint replacements and the court will be 5R/2D (and would almost surely reverse the 2019 abortion decision ASAP).