Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[Skill and Chance]

In light of the Kansas results, do you think SD and ND would vote to repeal their trigger bans if an initiative was put on the ballot?

[Tartarus Sauce]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November?

No, but Georgia Republicans might.

I'm not following what makes you think abortion would HELP Republicans as an issue in Georgia when the main takeaway from tonight is how much of a millstone the issue is going to be for the party in the coming years in vast swaths of the country if they don't tamp down their image with the public as being out of touch extremists on the matter.

I think it plays differently in the South.  Variations on the Kansas amendment routinely pass when put on the ballot in Southern states.

This is Georgia we are talking about; not Alabama, not Mississippi, not Tennessee, but Georgia. Treating the South as a monolithic bloc on this issue is very poor analysis.

Going extreme on abortion in a blue trending state that Biden won is a recipe for disaster for the GOP.

[Skill and Chance]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November?

No, but Georgia Republicans might.

I'm not following what makes you think abortion would HELP Republicans as an issue in Georgia when the main takeaway from tonight is how much of a millstone the issue is going to be for the party in the coming years in vast swaths of the country if they don't tamp down their image with the public as being out of touch extremists on the matter.

I think it plays differently in the South.  Variations on the Kansas amendment routinely pass when put on the ballot in Southern states.

This is Georgia we are talking about, not Alabama or Tennessee or Mississippi, but Georgia. Treating the South as a monolithic bloc on this issue is very poor analysis.

Going extreme on abortion in a blue trending state that Biden won is a recipe for disaster for the GOP.

Georgia has a 6 week law, which polls very differently from a total ban.  I do believe the 6 week law would pass as a referendum there in a Dem president midterm. 

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Did some rough calculations:

Mostly due to a lack of turnout in West Kansas, it was either very close or a slight victory for No in the deeply conservative KS-1

No won by about 8 points in KS-4, won by around 20 points in KS-2, and got nearly 70% in KS-3.

And yep, this is under the new lines.

[GALeftist]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November?

No, but Georgia Republicans might.

I'm not following what makes you think abortion would HELP Republicans as an issue in Georgia when the main takeaway from tonight is how much of a millstone the issue is going to be for the party in the coming years in vast swaths of the country if they don't tamp down their image with the public as being out of touch extremists on the matter.

I think it plays differently in the South.  Variations on the Kansas amendment routinely pass when put on the ballot in Southern states.

There is no universe in which abortion A. runs 30 points ahead of Biden in Kansas and B. is not overwhelmingly popular with persuadable voters in Georgia. Obviously the effect will be more muted, but if put to a straight up or down vote, pro-choice would beat pro-life in VA (obviously), NC, GA, FL, and TX, minimum.

[7,052,770]

Interestingly, the only polling that was ever done for the amendment had it passing 47-43%.

That's a pretty big miss.

https://coefficient.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/KS-VTB-Amendment-7.18.pdf

Same thing happened in Mississippi in 2011. The "Yes" side was completely stunned to lose at all, much less in a landslide.

[wbrocks67]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November?

No, but Georgia Republicans might.

I'm not following what makes you think abortion would HELP Republicans as an issue in Georgia when the main takeaway from tonight is how much of a millstone the issue is going to be for the party in the coming years in vast swaths of the country if they don't tamp down their image with the public as being out of touch extremists on the matter.

I think it plays differently in the South.  Variations on the Kansas amendment routinely pass when put on the ballot in Southern states.

This is Georgia we are talking about, not Alabama or Tennessee or Mississippi, but Georgia. Treating the South as a monolithic bloc on this issue is very poor analysis.

Going extreme on abortion in a blue trending state that Biden won is a recipe for disaster for the GOP.

Georgia has a 6 week law, which polls very differently from a total ban.  I do believe the 6 week law would pass as a referendum there in a Dem president midterm. 

6 week laws are incredibly unpopular. It would not pass in GA.

[wbrocks67]

Interestingly, the only polling that was ever done for the amendment had it passing 47-43%.

That's a pretty big miss.

https://coefficient.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/KS-VTB-Amendment-7.18.pdf

Eh, we only had one poll and honestly this entire campaign *really* ramped up with awareness in the last 2 weeks alone, so I don't think that one poll should be super scrutinized.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Interestingly, the only polling that was ever done for the amendment had it passing 47-43%.

That's a pretty big miss.

https://coefficient.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/KS-VTB-Amendment-7.18.pdf

Eh, we only had one poll and honestly this entire campaign *really* ramped up with awareness in the last 2 weeks alone, so I don't think that one poll should be super scrutinized.

Never said it should. Just said it was interesting.

[7,052,770]

There may be some kind of weird alt-"Bradley effect" in abortion polling where conservative people don't admit to pollsters that they will vote pro-choice and only do so in the privacy of the voting booth.

[wbrocks67]

The fact that we're talking about multiple large counties that had higher *Democratic* turnout than Republicans is just... stunning, for an August off year primary in Kansas.

The "in power" party this year is not sitting these elections out.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1554657144057782274

[afleitch]

Of course, it's one of the greatest failures in discourse that reproductive healthcare has been politicised but I now fully expect Republicans and 'centrists' will say that it shouldn't be politicised, left to the courts and that it's wrong for the Dems to capitalise on it now that the advantage had changed.

And while it remains a great failure that is a politicised issue, it is and the Dems absolutely should use it to their advantage.

[Pollster]

There are very few ballot measures/campaigns in general that I have been more proud to be a part of the polling team for.

I'm sure you're not allowed to tell us, but hearing about how the polling changed for this over the last couple of weeks would be fascinating.

This was always NO's race to lose even long before the Supreme Court got involved - it was just never a particularly popular measure, and many voters in all races/places tend to default to NO on ballot measures to begin with (NO usually overperforms its polling for this reason, and we saw that here). After Dobbs hit we had polling showing that there was strong messaging the YES campaign could have pivoted to, but they never did and instead stayed the course with their messaging that was already not working and became even less effective once the landscape on the issue changed. The most important decision the NO campaign made (backed up by the data, both ours and the other pollsters working on this) was to aggressively talk about abortion in the liberal media markets while never even saying the word in the conservative markets. There were strong signs in the polling and broad recognition on the ground early on that significant crossover appeal was possible if that balance was hit, and there were thankfully many people involved who were successfully held back from their worst impulses and from letting their passions and anger drive strategic decision-making that would have badly eroded support and not given them the resounding victory they wanted and got (though they still would have won - again, this was never a popular measure).

[White Cloud]

This is a very complex issue. Entire books could be written about the history of abortion politics in Kansas. Read about the 1991 "Summer of Mercy" protests at Dr. George Tiller's clinic in Wichita. Abortion was the hot-button political issue in Kansas at that time and continued to be so for years. Dr. Tiller was known as one of the only doctors in America who would perform late-term abortions. It was bad enough that people tried to kill him, and eventually someone did kill him: shot him dead in the head at point blank range in a church.

The point is, there's a lot to unpack here as the kids these days say. Wichita was a very culturally conservative city at that time. It seemed kind of odd for someone to be performing late-term abortions there. But Tiller was from Wichita, so that's where he chose to practice medicine. The fact that he was in Wichita created effects on both sides of the issue. On the one hand, it made Kansas a convergence point for pro-life activists. But on the other hand, it created an abortion lobby in Kansas that otherwise wouldn't have been there.

Even in the Kansas City metropolitan area, all of the abortion clinics are on the Kansas side of the Kansas/Missouri border. And that was true before Missouri banned abortion. There's an abortion lobby in Kansas. In addition to this, there's been a recent history in Kansas of having Democratic governors, in particular female Democrats, who have blocked the conservative legislature's attempts to pass anti-abortion laws. Add in the Kansas Supreme Court, which leans left due to the fact that the majority of the justices were appointed by Democratic governors.

But the thing that really moved the needle on this referendum was the Dobbs decision in June. Prior to that, you heard very little from the Vote No side on this issue in Kansas. I never saw a Vote No sign or saw an ad against it. Value Them Both/Vote Yes was the only thing you saw or heard about regarding the issue. It seemed like it was going to pass. Then the Dobbs decision came down and it was like everyone lost their freaking minds. Vote No signs popped up everywhere. Millions of dollars flooded the state with Vote No ads. I saw 2-3 Vote No ads every HOUR on prime time network TV in the weeks leading up to the election. The rhetoric became supercharged with language about "they are taking away our rights". I don't know if Yes would have passed if the Dobbs decision didn't happen. But it would have been a lot closer. The rhetoric, the blanketing with ads, the language being used, I think it put people in a fearful state of mind.

So now Kansas is going to be one of the only red states in the country with legal abortion. The abortion clinics in the state are going to be flooded with people from Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri, all of which have completely banned abortion. The clinics in Kansas already can't handle the volume of patients they are getting from other states.

So in general, abortion politics in Kansas are weird. The state does have demographics that are trending away from pro-life. Johnson County has changed a lot. Thirty years ago it would have been solidly pro-life. Not so much now. And Manhattan is turning into a mini-Lawrence. In addition to all this, just like everywhere else in America, church attendance is down, belief in Christian morals is down. And these are things that cause people to be pro-life.

[Devils30]

Interestingly, the only polling that was ever done for the amendment had it passing 47-43%.

That's a pretty big miss.

https://coefficient.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/KS-VTB-Amendment-7.18.pdf

Eh, we only had one poll and honestly this entire campaign *really* ramped up with awareness in the last 2 weeks alone, so I don't think that one poll should be super scrutinized.

The poll has Rs at a much higher sample and expected a low primary turnout. It was pretty clear the yes campaign had major red flags with moderates and indies.

[President Johnson]

Stunning results.

Isn't Kansas one of the lesser socially conservative red states, in part because of the grade of urbanization? I'm relatively sure the outcome of the referendum would have been very different in neighboring Oklahoma.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Stunning results.

Isn't Kansas one of the lesser socially conservative red states, in part because of the grade of urbanization? I'm relatively sure the outcome of the referendum would have been very different in neighboring Oklahoma.

Grade of urbanization + relatively large college educated population.

[perpetual_cynic]

Has anyone been able to find estimates on the percentage of voters of each party that voted yes and no?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I haven't posted here since last night, but I am overjoyed at this result! I was way underestimating the good people of Kansas. I thought at best it would be a low single digit victory if it won at all. It's just the reassurance about the possibility of this year not being as bad as it could be that I need to stay sane.

I was cautiously, skeptically optimistic about Dobbs changing the midterms in deviating from the historical pattern but now I think the GOP awakened a sleeping giant with expecting voters to just accept their extreme views on certain issues while taking for granted that Americans will simply vote for them due to historical patterns and the economic issues in the country. It's another data point alongside generic ballot polling, the NE-1 special election, and head-to-head polls that suggest that the Dobbs decision was cataclysmic enough to shake-up this year's political environment. I should note though that how people vote on referendums and vote on candidates still aren't entirely comparable. But the point remains that Democrats are paying attention and turning out in elections they usually don't, which the GOP also might have taken for granted. It's about f***ing time! It still sucks that it took the worst case scenario to happen to lead to this though. Let's never let that happen again and be proactive. I can't imagine how much this would have been defeated if it occurred during the general election.

And, also very important, Kansas remains a bastion of sanity in the center of the country (well, if Kelly wins again, at least; chances of which may have increased) that will allow women to exercise freedom over their bodies.

But I really want to take a moment to bask in some schadenfreude and note some of the copium we're hearing from shocked Republicans:

1. "It was all the wording!:" I was worried about how that would affect this initiative myself, maybe it's Brexit PTSD, but I can't see such a blow-out like this occurring because apparently too many people are too stupid to bother reading the question or lack the comprehension for it. The wording was a bit complicated but that's where the campaign comes into play, to simplify what the vote is about and note potential consequences. The "yes" campaign clearly didn't do this well enough or have a message that appealed to enough people.

2. "Oh, well, you know Kansas isn't even that Republican!:" This is utterly ridiculous. When people think of a rural, conservative state in "flyover country" Kansas often comes to mind. The very optics of this are terrible and those are important in this country. Obviously the suburbs are why this initiative failed, areas which are growing, and results from rural areas closed the gap a bit as the night went on, but a 17 point margin-significantly exceeding Marshall's, Trump's, and Kelly's-makes it evident that rural parts of state aren't as gung-ho about Roe v. Wade's end as most GOP candidates seem to think. Roe v. Wade allowed for the many nuanced views on abortion that Americans have to exist simultaneously and now without it the status quo can be shaken up more than most people, even GOP voters, are comfortable with. And even if it isn't the most Republican state, which it evidently isn't, the result suggests that essentially every state to its left, and even some to the right, would see stronger rejections of an amendment like this. And that would be a majority of the states, and country's population. Sure, maybe Deep South states like Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi would pass it, or other amendments, that restrict, or end abortion access statewide, but it likely would be by smaller than expected margins. The Supreme Court erred greatly with Dobbs for so many reasons, but it's yielded a real "be careful what you wish for" scenario when it comes to how the GOP's political prospects may be affected by it. Hell, the result here might have actually been closer if the Dobbs ruling never happened.

But I welcome these excuses and mental gymnastics from the GOP. If they refuse to learn a lesson and change their ways then it makes it all that easier for American voters to recognize how extreme they are and they can be voted out of office and teach them about the ramifications of their methods through the only means they recognize-losing political power.

So overall this was one of the most positive developments of the year...and I think I might actually have some hope for the future. It's just a shame that Kobach might become a statewide official again...

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The fact that we're talking about multiple large counties that had higher *Democratic* turnout than Republicans is just... stunning, for an August off year primary in Kansas.

The "in power" party this year is not sitting these elections out.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1554657144057782274

Those Riley numbers are pretty staggering especially considering that this is a college county and classes don't start for another three weeks.

College students (especially women/female identifying) are a hard demo to turn out in midterms (e.g. turnout was abysmal in some of these areas of VA) but seem to be incredibly energized when the exact opposite looked true six months ago.

Has anyone been able to find estimates on the percentage of voters of each party that voted yes and no?

not sure if this is what you're looking for but here's some back-of-the-envelope stuff

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1554796860937756672

here's a related tweet of his on turnout generally

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1554789910539804672

[wbrocks67]

I mean, this is *insane*

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1554924404404113408

[Badger]

I mean, this is *insane*

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1554924404404113408

So turn out was only several points higher among Democrats than republicans. What am I missing here that makes this such an eye-popping statistic?

[Not Me, Us]

Stunning results.

Isn't Kansas one of the lesser socially conservative red states, in part because of the grade of urbanization? I'm relatively sure the outcome of the referendum would have been very different in neighboring Oklahoma.

Grade of urbanization + relatively large college educated population.

Much less evangelical than other red states as well, particularly Southern ones.

[Adam Griffin]

The fact that we're talking about multiple large counties that had higher *Democratic* turnout than Republicans is just... stunning, for an August off year primary in Kansas.

The "in power" party this year is not sitting these elections out.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1554657144057782274

To be fair (in two-way modeling), the RV share of Riley is 58.54% R, 41.46% D; turnout this week was 57.20% R, 42.80% D. That's less than a 3-point shift between VR and turnout in favor of Ds between the two parties. Not bad given the environment, but not a huge overall shift given it was almost all a drop-off of unaffiliated participation.

If you want to include those not registered with either of the two major parties in Riley: Democrats were 34.89% of turnout versus 27.96% among RVs; GOP was 46.62% versus 39.46%, respectively. Both parties comprised 6-7 points more of the electorate relative to registration share. Nonpartisan RV share is 32.58% versus a turnout share of 18.49% on Tuesday.

So yeah: registered D turnout spiked. However, that's not the best indicator of what self-described "independents" or unaffiliated voters may do with regard to candidates (as opposed to ballot initiatives/amendments/issues) in November - especially when they will be a substantially larger and more representative share of the electorate.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, this is *insane*

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1554924404404113408

So turn out was only several points higher among Democrats than republicans. What am I missing here that makes this such an eye-popping statistic?

Because Democrats really had no reason to turn out for this primary. There were only a few contested elections and nothing really driving a major vote. Even in 2018 with a contested governor race on the Dem side, Rs still made up 67% of the primary vote.

So yes, Democratic turnout above R turnout in a sleepy August primary IS something.