2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Storr]

Umichvoter
@umichvoter99
·
51s
Statewide ballots at 70,000 in Florida already
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Florida has surpassed 85,000 already. May hit 100,000 tonight.

According to the Google doc linked, Florida has already passed it! 104,988 currently.

[Storr]

Texas has also started to report their earlier ballots. On Oct 13, in-person early voting is going to start.

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/

So many counties...

Nothing from the two most populous, Harris and Dallas, yet.

[Storr]

It feels bizarre that they publicly publish the names and addresses of people who have voted in such an easily accessible format

At least in NC, you can lookup anyone and find their voter registration (which shows voting history, party affiliation, voting location, and even address).

Edit: I just looked up Thom Tillis, and unsurprisingly (he was in sales at IBM before running for public office) he lives in a $1.5 million lakefront house. Also, Tillis' son (who is also named Thomas because why not?) after only voting in Republican primaries previously evidently voted in this year's Democratic Primary?!?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1317284212492427264

Texas is looking like a totally different state than 2016

Plus, Travis County is at 40% of total 2016 turnout!!!

186,280/468,720 = 39.74%
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct16.pdf

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

I don't know where this dude got his numbers, but Denton County is already at 51% of total 2016 turnout. "In-person" early voting total for the whole county [134846] + returned mail ballot total [17577] (up through 10/16 since we don't have today's totals yet) divided by 2016 total turnout [298645] = .51039

source: https://www.votedenton.com/early-voting-roster/

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317574454218805250?s=20
55,600 + the total from yesterday = 567,996.

total from yesterday source: https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do

[Storr]

the only turnout numbers that are crazy good are harris + denton everything else is on par with past years not sure why people are so "excited" lol let's wait & see

Denial

how? the %'s are on par with 2016 besides those two counties lol and it's not dems are voting 80-20 in these counties either, denton + collin are ruby red.

I know your username says 1993, but that doesn't mean the rest of us are in 1993 anymore.

To be fair Denton and Collin were Ruby red in like 2012 (64.9% Romney for both).

Edit: I realize this is more of a bagel meme than anything. But, it's simply astounding how much the two counties, both with 800k+ populations, have shifted in such a short time.

[Storr]

the only turnout numbers that are crazy good are harris + denton everything else is on par with past years not sure why people are so "excited" lol let's wait & see

Denial

how? the %'s are on par with 2016 besides those two counties lol and it's not dems are voting 80-20 in these counties either, denton + collin are ruby red.

I know your username says 1993, but that doesn't mean the rest of us are in 1993 anymore.

To be fair Denton and Collin were Ruby red in like 2012 (64.9% Romney for both).

Edit: I realize this is more of a bagel meme than anything. But, it's simply astounding how much the two counties, both with 800k+ populations, have shifted in such a short time.

collin is now easily over 1 mil

[Storr]

No, I am not ignoring TargetSmart...

TEXAS EARLY VOTE

Total Ballots Cast: 3,199,795

REPUBLICANS 1,620,479 (50.6 %)

DEMOCRATS 1,311,356 (41.0 %)

INDEPENDENTS 267,960 (8.4 %)

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=TX

Biden winning Texas is a "Pipe Dream" for him!

Even while overlooking the issues that model being from Target Smart brings up, this is already old data. Texas is already at 3,881,004 votes cast, and that was last updated yesterday.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/TX.html

[Storr]

Weird that weekend voting is slower than weekday. Who are all these people who have a free hour to vote during the week but not on the weekend?

Just me but I would rather vote on weekday than weekend.

Now that I work remotely, I like to take more time off here and there to go out to get some breeze. That wasn't possible when I went to my office. I use weekend to either catch up on shopping, have more family time and binge on sports/TV.

I think some of it might just be habit, since before early voting everyone used to vote on a weekday, Tuesday. Plus, like Asta said people tend to enjoy doing leisurely activities (weekend vacations, watch sports, parties, seeing family, church) on weekends, while the possibility of waiting in line to vote isn't all that exciting to most folks (except for people on this forum lol).

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318298567174402056?s=20

58,600 + 629,608 (the total up through yesterday) divided by 1,312,112 (the total number of Harris County votes in 2016) = 0.5245.

They did it y'all. Harris County already has more votes accepted than half of all which were cast in 2016....15 days before election day.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318298567174402056?s=20

58,600 + 629,608 (the total up through yesterday) divided by 1,312,112 (the total number of Harris County votes in 2016) = 0.5245.

They did it y'all. Harris County already has more votes accepted than half of all which were cast in 2016....15 days before election day.

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318358950136434689?s=20

Update: post Sunday early voting total percentage of all 2016 votes: 54.86%!!!!

[Storr]

I am updating my percentage of 2016 vote tally of Texas counties with >200,000 population. "Why 200K?", you may ask. Because there are literally 16 counties between 100 and 200k population that are all solid Republican (the most favorable one for Democrats, Guadalupe, still was 63% Trump in 2016) and I don't want to take the effort to keep up with those.

Anyway, I found my first county with 70% of 2016 votes, and it's a tossup rapidly growing suburban county to boot (Trump won it by literally 602 votes in 2016):

Hays

They have a late 2000s looking bare bones elections website and only give early voting and mail-in ballot data through separate excel spreadsheets with each individual voter's information: last name, first name, address, precinct, even the time (down to the second) they checked in to vote, among others. Thus, you have to scroll all the way down on the spreadsheet to find the total. If you want to see it in all its glory here's a link to the results page where I got the numbers from:
https://hayscountytx.com/departments/elections/current-year-elections/

Despite these hurtles I found the golden nugget: 41,066 in person early votes + 9,671 returned mail ballots = 50,737 divided by the total number of 2016 votes (72,164) gives us 70.31%.
Incredible!

[Storr]

Obligatory Ralston Clark Dem firewall update: https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318730879804436481?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318986793258287105?s=20
Update: 61,687 votes so far.

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1319054659550674944?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318997603695034369

Clark firewall already at 61.5k, per Ralston.

In his blog (he's really good at getting numbers early and making analysis; it's definitely worth keeping up with) post Ralston mentions it was 72k (45k statewide) at the end of 2016 early voting.

Edit: I mixed up the statewide and Clark 2016 end of early voting leads. oops.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318986793258287105?s=20

Update: 61,687 votes so far today (doesn't include mail ballots returned today). 66% of total 2016 votes.

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1319054659550674944?s=20

[Storr]

Webb County (Laredo) has finally reached 50% of the 2016 vote. They are currently at 28.5k and should pass 30k after today. My personal goal for that county is to get at least 65k total this election, ideally 70k

Related, the totals for yesterday from Harris County: https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1319084313082798080?s=20

[Storr]

TX is now at 65.5% of 2016. Will be no problem blowing past 75% by the end of the week (if not by the end of Friday).

Plus, of the four large suburban counties that have been producing absolutely absurd turnout....

*clears throat*

continue to do so:

Collin          80% of 2016
Denton       83% of 2016
Williamson  83% of 2016
Hays           86% of 2016

[Storr]

Does someone have a list of the net number of ballots Democrats are gaining over Republicans for each day since early voting began? Including EV and mail.

You can find Texas per day here:
https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do
Select "2020 NOVEMBER 3RD GENERAL ELECTION" and then on the left under Early "Voting Turnout by Date" you can select stats for whatever particular date you want. They always have the previous day's statistics on the website by 7:30am CT. The totals for the whole state are at the bottom of the page.

For some reason it doesn't show the number of mail votes returned on a particular date, but you can subtract the previous day's "Cumulative By Mail Voters" from the "Cumulative By Mail Voters" of the date you choose.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1319365011429613568?s=20

900k is approximately one city of Fort Worth or one Jacksonville Florida (if you prefer meme comparisons).

Edit: HC was at 35,645 this time yesterday.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319375483281281026?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319348592776269827?s=21

Gotta say, Dems can’t keep losing 30,000 a day like that like cmon, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

Dude, Dems gained over 20,000 votes today if these numbers are accurate. The gap is now D+>500,000. Use your head!

Not sure if this is correct, D advantage in mail-in was 547k 22 hours ago, and 560k 2 hours ago per his twitter. This indicates GOP is closing the gap and is definitely not 500k+ overall.

How does Democrats increasing the lead in mail-in votes indicate the GOP is closing the gap?

[Storr]

TX is now at 65.5% of 2016. Will be no problem blowing past 75% by the end of the week (if not by the end of Friday).

Plus, of the four large suburban counties that have been producing absolutely absurd turnout....

*clears throat*

continue to do so:

Collin          80% of 2016
Denton       83% of 2016
Williamson  83% of 2016
Hays           86% of 2016

Update:

Collin          86% of 2016
Denton       89% of 2016
Williamson  88% of 2016
Hays           91% of 2016