RTW gains popularity in Michigan

[krazen1211]

Didn't you learn anything from your many wrong, overconfident predictions in 2011?


Nope.

You are not addressing the fact that you made several wrong predictions. I maintained that Obama would win and that seats like MA, MO and WI would stay in the Democratic column, plus I never constantly overrated Democratic chances.

Check the election results? Your predictions were wrong.

If I'm right, I'm right. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. In the case of the union buster Scott Walker, I was quite correct.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone seeing the similarity between J. J. and krazen?

[Morning in Atlas]

PPP sure as hell isn't arbitrary. It's actually quite accurate (almost as accurate as Quinnipiac), and EPIC-MRA had similar results.

Comparing Christie and Walker to Rick Snyder's even more ludicrous than comparing him to Quinn. Christie salvaged his approvals with the way he handled Sandy, and well, Walker was smart enough to enact it early in his term. He's made up for his mistakes enough to earn him reelection. Snyder was stupid, though, and passed it right after the election in 2012. And trust me, voters will remember RTW when they go to the voting booths.

Revisionist history. Christie's approval was already going up well before Hurricane Sandy. See this post.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=135562.0


Just more than a year after union busting, Mr. Scott Walker already won re-election, once.

His approvals were still good, but Booker was only down by around 4-7 during the time that you are talking about. Pre-Sandy Christie sure helped his case for re-election, but it was his response to the hurricane and outreach to Democrats that moved his seat into safe territory. Please, before you start being condescending, get your crap together.

And yes, just more than a year after union busting, Walker did run. However, Barrett was a bad candidate whose message seemed to be "I'm not Scott Walker" the second time around. Turnout was down by more than 10% compared to the general as well, which contributed to the lack of votes. Walker is well-established now and has good approvals. He will be hard to unseat this time around. Christie is one of the most popular governors in the country. They aren't even in the same breath as Snyder, and you're divorced from reality if you think they are.

My crap together? For the record, turnout in Mr. Walker's recall was roughly 10% up from Mr. Walker's initial election. You might want to consider gaining a limited grasp of the facts first.


Mr. Christie's approvals were in the 30s this time in 2011. You are performing the extremely curious method of projecting a current approval out by roughly 20 months! How funny!

Let me interrupt your little self-fellatio session for a moment. It seems that I've struck a nerve somewhere, so I'll gladly concede the turnout point. Unlike you, I can actually have something called humility. I'll even put it in bold to make sure everyone knows! I WAS WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!

However, any Republican can get elected in a year like 2010 if they don't make themselves out to be a complete asshat (see Ron Johnson). Some of the guys from Atlas could have held office if they ran.

And yes, I'm forecasting Snyder's approval because messing with unions usually turns out to be a disaster for everyone involved. It's not like Walker where he messed with unions, faced a recall with average turnout against a retread candidate who never made an effort to distinguish himself. He will most likely face a competent opponent without any statewide losses. Bar any freak events that are beyond human prediction, his chances look terrible.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Just more than a year after union busting, Mr. Scott Walker already won re-election, once.

That was a recall. If that was a regular election, he would have lost.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Snyder will be in great shape in 2014.

Because most Governors with 37/54 approvals are reelected just fine!

I'm so glad Governor Perdue is still in office!

A better example would be Pat Quinn.

Comparing a Democratic governor in a dark blue state to a Republican governor in a light blue state is ludicrous, especially when that governor most likely won't even make it past the primary.

Michigan is more of a purple state, and I doubt Quinn will even have a primary challenge.  Snyder probably won't run at all.

Just more than a year after union busting, Mr. Scott Walker already won re-election, once.

That was a recall. If that was a regular election, he would have lost.

Support for Walker and his reforms had increased significantly by the time of the recall.  He should be pretty safe.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, there were polls in the mid-'70s that showed two-thirds of Americans supported so-called "right-to-work" laws. We KNOW those polls were wrong.

[Morning in Atlas]

Snyder will be in great shape in 2014.

Because most Governors with 37/54 approvals are reelected just fine!

I'm so glad Governor Perdue is still in office!

A better example would be Pat Quinn.

Comparing a Democratic governor in a dark blue state to a Republican governor in a light blue state is ludicrous, especially when that governor most likely won't even make it past the primary.

Michigan is more of a purple state, and I doubt Quinn will even have a primary challenge.  Snyder probably won't run at all.

To be honest, I'd call a state that hasn't gone Republican since Papa Bush's first run light blue.

And I honestly believe your thoughts about Quinn are wishful thinking. Madigan is already reaching out to groups for fundraising (namely Emily's List and League of Conservation Voters) and Daley is waiting on Madigan's decision (which seems to be a very likely yes). Snyder running is a gut feeling, but he seems like the type to bail if his approvals won't recover.

[pbrower2a]

Dr. Charles Ballard said 42.7% of people polled said they believe the new law will help Michigan's economy while 41% said it will hurt.

Um, no.

Colorado is far less unionized than Michigan is, yet voters there handily rejected a "right-to-work" referendumb.

(Incidentally, did anyone ever make a map of how that referendumb turned out?)

There was no "right-to-work" referendum in Michigan. It was a referendum to assert the desirability of collective bargaining. It lost in the face of a campaign of "Don;t mess with my State Constitution.

Then came the sucker punch. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Dr. Charles Ballard said 42.7% of people polled said they believe the new law will help Michigan's economy while 41% said it will hurt.

Um, no.

Colorado is far less unionized than Michigan is, yet voters there handily rejected a "right-to-work" referendumb.

(Incidentally, did anyone ever make a map of how that referendumb turned out?)

There was no "right-to-work" referendum in Michigan. It was a referendum to assert the desirability of collective bargaining. It lost.

I was talking about the one in Colorado.