Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Del Tachi]

To anybody who thinks Cagle would be "sane", you're mistaken. He may be the "establishment" choice by virtue of incumbency, but he is not going to be the most reasonable one in the primary if elected (that distinction will go to Kemp, who is pretending to be hard right for expediency).

I will say this, though...Cagle will be a lot weaker in a top-ticket contest than many people realize. Not to oversimplify it, but he is David Vitter 2.0 in wait.

Also, GA has open primaries so you can vote in whichever primary you prefer - but in the event of a primary run-off, you have to cast a ballot in the same party primary as you did in the primary general (no voting in DEM primary and GOP primary run-off, or vice-versa).

Yep, exactly.  The business and agricultural communities have been lining-up behind Brian Kemp and he'd be a much more competent governor than Cagle.  Cagle has led early primary polls because of higher name recognition than Kemp, but Kemp's campaign is much more well-funded and organized.  By the time May 22 second rolls around, I think we'll be heading to a Kemp/Cagle runoff (or maybe even an outright Kemp win) and that runoff probably comes down to a battle of ITP vs OTP Republicans (which Kemp will win as athe OTP Republican).

[Del Tachi]

Pardon... ITP and OTP?

Outside of the Perimeter and Inside of the Perimeter - probably the biggest cultural and political division in the state of Georgia.

The Perimeter referring to Interstate 485 - the circumferential highway around Atlanta

ITP is dominated by the city of Atlanta and its more liberal environs, both Black (SW Atlanta) and White (Midtown, Decatur).  It also includes Buckhead, Druid Hills and other areas that are historically Metro Atlanta's "old money" Republican areas.  Cagle is a good fit here because he's perceived as more socially moderate and has an ITP political pedigree.

OTP Atlanta is mostly newer suburbs and exurbs which, while becoming increasingly racially and politically diverse, still maintain a more fundamentally rural character and tend to see the city of Atlanta as a potential drain on regional resources.  Brian Kemp will do well here because the more rural nature of his campaign, and his more overt socially conservative and pro-Trump messaging.

The distinction is probably more temporal than physical than this point (Alpharetta and a lot of Cobb County look and feel a lot more like Buckhead than Lawrenceville, for example), but my point was that Cagle will probably do better with well-of Republican suburbanites whereas Kemp is playing for the more rural and exurban Republican vote.  A few other GOP nominating contests have shaped up this way.  Cagle will need to post very large margins in Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb and has a strong showing in Gwinnet if he's going to have any chance of substantially biting into Kemp's number in rural Georgia - especially South Georgia.

[Del Tachi]

Just for reference, here were the 10 counties with the most GOP primary vote in 2016:

1.  Cobb (112k)
2.  Gwinnett (98k)
3.  Fulton (84k)
4.  Cherokee (50k)
5.  DeKalb (44k)
6.  Forsyth (42k)
7.  Hall (32k)
8.  Chatham (30k)
9.  Henry (28k)
10.  Columbia (26k)

So I'd say there's definitely enough GOP votes in Fulton/DeKalb/Cobb/Gwinnett for Cagle to make it close.  What he's got to worry about is Brian Kemp's performance in exurban counties like Forsyth, Cherokee and Henry, and Cagle has to keep it close (if not win) Savannah and Augusta.

I would say Cagle's benchmarks are something like 2/3 of the vote in Gwinnett and Cobb, and closer to 80% in Fulton/DeKalb.

[Del Tachi]

Who is more moderate and reasonable out of Cagle and Kemp?

Cagle is trying to run as the more moderate Republican, Kemp is using a lot of pro-Trump rhetoric to turn-up his rural base but is also more capable and favored by the state's business and agricultural communities (as Adam Griffin mentions above).  I think Kemp has triangulated an almost perform position for the primary, and I expect him to win somewhat handily.

Also, I just realized that Georgia television hilariously provides an almost perfect example of the two different types of Republican voters Cagle and Kemp are trying to appeal to:



and

[Del Tachi]

Just for reference, here were the 10 counties with the most GOP primary vote in 2016:

1.  Cobb (112k)
2.  Gwinnett (98k)
3.  Fulton (84k)
4.  Cherokee (50k)
5.  DeKalb (44k)
6.  Forsyth (42k)
7.  Hall (32k)
8.  Chatham (30k)
9.  Henry (28k)
10.  Columbia (26k)

So I'd say there's definitely enough GOP votes in Fulton/DeKalb/Cobb/Gwinnett for Cagle to make it close.  What he's got to worry about is Brian Kemp's performance in exurban counties like Forsyth, Cherokee and Henry, and Cagle has to keep it close (if not win) Savannah and Augusta.

I would say Cagle's benchmarks are something like 2/3 of the vote in Gwinnett and Cobb, and closer to 80% in Fulton/DeKalb.

Cagle's biggest concern would be that something like 15% of the 2014 R primary voters in those counties are going to take the Dem ballot this time, like in VA-GOV 2017. 

Maybe.  Georgia might be much more inelastic than VA.  If Stacey Evans were to drop down to the AG race, Casey Cagle would probably be a surprise beneficiary - I don't think White Atlanta suburbanites would be voting in a Dem primary for Stacey Abrams. 

[Del Tachi]

Here's a little cheat-sheet for primary night, showing where votes for each party electorate generally reside. There are of course numerous ways you can hack and splice GA in such contests, but increasingly, population density and the presence of metro areas/lack thereof are key factors. It also helps to know that a candidate who wins a super-majority of counties in the state (in either party) on Election Night can still lose their primary - and quite resoundingly.

Any estimation what % of the Democratic electorate is Black in each of your regions?  Rural Georgia and Non-Atlanta Metro areas are probably dominated by Black Democrats, but I'm curious as to the Urban Atlanta and Exurban Atlanta regions.

Also, how would the %'s on your map change if the "core" Atlanta counties of Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton were a separate region?

[Del Tachi]

The portrayals of Casey Cagle in these commercials is hilarious.  Poor guy.

[Del Tachi]

Are there any GA-07 residents around? Wanted to hear thoughts on the Democratic candidates for the seat. I have a job opportunity with one of the campaigns, but not aware of the mood in the district.

I live in Athens, so not GA-07 but I personally know one of the Democratic candidates (he's a good guy).  PM me if you want some more information.

[Del Tachi]

Brian Kemp started his campaign bus tour today.  Will hit 50 counties in the next ten days.  Kemp is the only candidate to have visited all 159 Georgia counties.

The GOP primary is starting to heat up!

[Del Tachi]

That was a huge misstep for Cagle. Probably a game changer. This means both the frontrunners in Cagle and Kemp are severely damaged goods. Maybe just maybe this is the year someone breaks through

That's all that I'm taking away from what has transpired recently.  I've been watching local Atlanta media outlets most of today and reaction to Cagle's comments have not been good.

I think this says a lot about the state of the GOP primary.  You don't go out and make statements like this when you feel you're ahead, especially when those statements seem to run counter to your primary strategy of running as the sensible, ITP Republican.  I say Cagle is feeling the heat from Kemp and Tippins.

[Del Tachi]

Running on culture wars in a state that’s almost majority minority and where you’re losing more educated white people each cycle is sooooooo smart.

/s

Kemp is trying to win the Republican primary, not the GE at this point.

Stacey Abrams is also dumb for running as the #woke Instagram poet candidate in a state that is still fundamentally Southern and conservative.

[Del Tachi]

Stacey Abrams is also dumb for running as the #woke Instagram poet candidate in a state that is still fundamentally Southern and conservative.

She’s really not. Running to the left of draconian right wing policies is not being a “woke instagram poet”. Or shall we continue to criminalize poverty, suppress voters, and deny people healthcare?

Running to be the first female POC elected governor of a U.S. state is not a policy position. 

[Del Tachi]

This is obviously much bigger news than anything happening on the Democratic side:  Cagle endorsed by NRA.

Not necessarily surprising due to Cagle's history with the NRA, but the timing couldn't have been worse for Kemp - he had penned an open letter to the NRA asking them to stay neutral just this week.

[Del Tachi]

One county that would be interesting to see would be Oconee - White, wealthy county on the outskirts of Metro ATL next door to very-liberal Athens. 

[Del Tachi]

One fun fact I just observed: the 50 counties above have done a mirror flip compared to 2014:

2014 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Republican EV: 55%
Democratic EV: 45%

2018 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Democratic EV: 55%
Republican EV: 45%

It's worth noting that this analysis should be considered alongside the fact that GA Democrats had no contested gubernatorial primary in 2014. We would expect some general statewide rebound simply because of a contested top-ticket race in 2018, but the question is: how much of the rebound is attributable to that? Furthermore, how much may be the result of increased ED vote cannibalization by Democrats? I have a hard time believing even both factors combined are responsible for a 20-point shift.

To be fair, it's not like the Georgia republican governor primary was seriously contested.

You did have a very competitive U.S. Senate primary on the GOP side in 2014 though

[Del Tachi]

I'll be the first to post an official prediction

Democratic Primary:
(✓) Stacey Abrams - 56.6%
Stacey Evans - 43.4%

Republican Primary:
Brian Kemp - 36.1% ✓R
Casey Cagle - 35.7% ✓R
Hunter Hill - 11.8%
Clay Tippins - 10.0%
Michael Williams - 5.4%

[Del Tachi]

Voted for Cagle. He's pretty bland and kind of a block-head, but he does best against the Stacies in polls and is the only Republican with even the slightest change of hitting 50% tonight, foregoing a runoff that would give the Democratic opponent an advantage.

To be fair, I don't think pollsters ever polled the Stacies vs another opponent. I've only seen Stacey vs Cagle.

There was a poll done with all candidates back in late February and Casey did the best of all candidates and Hill did worst. Obviously since the poll was that long ago, name recognition was a big factor, but it's all I have to go by. The other Reps, even at this point, with the exception of Brian Kemp, are still relatively unknown, and I think the GOP needs a known name to take on the "rising star" Abrams.

Brian Kemp will at least get the deplorables to turn out for him, something Cagle might fail to do.  Unlike Virginia, Georgia is a Trump state so I don't think we're in serious risk of Gillespie'ing ourselves here.

[Del Tachi]

Politico election day profile of Stacey Abrams and the Democratic primary race.

Article features literally nothing about good Stacey, and is a masturbatory PR post for bad Stacey: it neglects to mention her not-so-humble roots and poor relationship with other GA Dems.

The reason that Stacey Evans will lose this race in November (no matter who the GOP nominates) is because her campaign is being bankrolled by DC and San Francisco liberals (easy line for GOP to attack) and Abrams' poor relationship with other GA Dems, particularly Keisha Lance Bottoms.

[Del Tachi]

Voted for Kemp today.  Think he has best chance of beating Cagle in a runoff.  No way anybody is reaching 50% tonight.  Guess I am a deplorable...

Deplorables Unite!

Kemp is the most competent candidate in the race.  The fact that Cagle wasn't able to clear the GOP field and will not be getting anywhere near 50% tonight is indicative of how poorly many in the GOP receive him (even after 12 years as LG).

[Del Tachi]

Geography of the vote:  Cagle wins most Metro Atlanta counties but Kemp does strong in East Georgia and South Georgia.  Cagle held to under 50% in Gwinnett.  Tippins' best county is DeKalb.  Abrams wins everything outside of a few North Georgia counties; however, Evans surprises and wins at least one Metro county (not sure which is most likely, probably Cherokee or Forsyth).

Oh, and Harry Sims is elected mayor of Athens tonight and avoids a runoff with Kelly Girtz.

[Del Tachi]

I suspect Election Day vote will be substantially better for Kemp and Evans than EV totals, respectively.  ED turnout should skew older, Whiter and more rural.

[Del Tachi]

First County to fully report is Brantley:

Abrams - 24
Evans - 15

Cagle - 119
Kemp - 108
Hill - 38

[Del Tachi]

Early vote shows Cagle with 51.8% of the vote in his home county (Hall).  No early vote yet in Kemp's home county (Clarke) but the one next door (Oconee) is 55.2% for him.

[Del Tachi]

Gwinnett early vote just dropped.  Abrams with 3/4 the vote

[Del Tachi]

NYT calls for Abrams