The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

Oregon (R2000/DailyKos)

62% Favorable
31% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Oregon Poll was conducted from June 22 through June 24, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/6/24/OR/312

[Tender Branson]

Massachusetts (Rasmussen)

63% Approve
36% Disapprove

This state telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in the state of Massachusettes was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on June 24, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/massachusetts/toplines_election_2010_massachusettes_governor_june_24_2009

[Tender Branson]

This thread is becoming such a train wreck. Good stuff!

Then it's time for some new polls:

New York (Marist)

63% Excellent/Good
36% Fair/Poor

This survey of 1,003 registered voters in New York State was conducted on June 23rd through June 25th 2009.  Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. Results are statistically significant at ±3%. There are 441 Democrats and 281 Republicans. Results for these subsamples are statistically significant at ±5% and ±6%, respectively. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/nyspolls/ny090623/Registered%20Voters/Obama%20Approval%20Rating.htm

60% of Whites approve and 78% of Non-Whites.

What is this poll made of to get 63% overall ? 95% Whites ?

Chuck Schumer's approval also looks suspicously low ...

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (Fairleigh Dickinson University)

61% Approve
29% Disapprove

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 803 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone from June 22, 2009, through June 29, 2009, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/30jun/tab.html

[Tender Branson]

New Survery USA 50 polls:

ApproveDisapprove

Alabama: 4649
California: 6432
Iowa: 5739
Kansas: 4949
Kentucky: 4751
Minnesota: 5936
Missouri: 5145
New Mexico: 5344
New York: 6530
Oregon: 5641
Virginia: 5936
Washington State: 6333
Wisconsin: 5938

They are not "new":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91754.1125

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (PPP)

53% Approve
40% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 1,094 New Jersey voters from June 27th to 29th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_701.pdf

[Tender Branson]

The NJ poll is especially interesting because Senators Menendez and Lautenberg are at 32-43 and 41-46 disapproval, while Strategic Vision just a week ago had them at 50-37 and 47-40 approval, while their numbers on Obama were quite similar (SV about 3% higher).

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac University National Poll:

57% Approve
33% Disapprove

From June 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 3,063 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1345

[Tender Branson]

Due to a lack of domestic polls, let's look north:

Canada Harris-Decima poll:

73% Excellent/Good
20% Fair/Poor

Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey. These data were gathered between June 18 and June 21 2009. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downloads/pdf/news_releases/070209E.pdf

[Tender Branson]

*big yawn*

Are polling outfits finally bankrupt or the newspapers paying them ?

(Or it was July 4th ...)

[Tender Branson]

PPP will poll Pawlenty against Obama in Minnesota this week ...

[Tender Branson]

PPP will poll Pawlenty against Obama in Minnesota this week ...

I think Obama will have a lead of 3-4 points.

I`ll predict 53-42 Obama approval in the state and 47-41 vs. Pawlenty.

[Tender Branson]

PPP will poll Pawlenty against Obama in Minnesota this week ...

I think Obama will have a lead of 3-4 points.

I`ll predict 53-42 Obama approval in the state and 47-41 vs. Pawlenty.

Yeah, maybe, since it's PPP and they have been giving Obama far worse numbers than anyone else.

Also, MN polls have been really weird too in the last 3 cycles. In 2004 they overestimated Bush, in 2006 they overestimated Hatch and in 2008 they overestimated Obama ...

[Tender Branson]

Wisconsin (University of Wisconsin Badger Poll)

63% Approve
32% Disapprove

http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP28_PR1.pdf

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (Rasmussen)

55% Approve
44% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Jersey was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 7, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/toplines/toplines_new_jersey_governor_july_7_2009

[Tender Branson]

Ohio (Research 2000/DailyKos)

59% Favorable
35% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Ohio Poll was conducted from July 6 through July 8, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/7/8/OH/313

[Tender Branson]

Michigan (EPIC-MRA/Detroit News/WXYZ)

Now, I would like to read a list of several political figures. For each one, please tell me if you recognize the name, and if you do, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person.

Barack Obama

60% Favorable
34% Unfavorable

Jennifer Granholm

44% Favorable
52% Unfavorable

Debbie Stabenow

48% Favorable
36% Unfavorable

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President -- would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

57% Positive Rating
42% Negative Rating

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Jennifer Granholm as Michigan's Governor -- would you give her a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

32% Positive Rating
66% Negative Rating

How would you rate the job being done by Debbie Stabenow as U.S. Senator -- would you give her a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

40% Positive Rating
46% Negative Rating

http://www.detnews.com/article/20090709/POLITICS02/907090491

[Tender Branson]

New Hampshire (University of NH)

61% Approve
33% Disapprove

62% Favorable
30% Unfavorable

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 558 randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between June 24 and July 1, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.1 percent.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2009_summer_presapp70909.pdf

[Tender Branson]

tender you forgot to add texas ...

I´m not creating the maps ...

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota Preview
 
Tomorrow we're releasing a poll looking at how Minnesota voters view Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, and Tim Pawlenty and how Obama does in a head to head against the Republicans.

There is some good news for Republicans in the numbers, but here are a couple key points:

-Only 6% of respondents who say they approve of Obama's job performance indicated they would support Pawlenty against him- not much of a 'home field' advantage for the state's Governor.

-As for Palin, well, all I can say is Goldwater.

So let's guess:

The release will be 39% Independent, 34% Democratic and 27% Republican.

I guess Obama gets a rating of about 49-43 among MN Independents, 87-9 among Democrats and 15-78 among Republicans.

That means Obama will have a roughly 53-41 approval rating in Minnesota.

Pawlenty gets just 6% of people who approve of Obama, which is roughly 3% of his total share. Let's say he gets 90% of the people that disapprove of Obama, which is another 37%.

So, Pawlenty will have the support of 40% of Minnesota voters against Obama.

Let's say Obama gets 85% of people who approve of him (45%) and 10% of people that disapprove (4%).

Bottom line: Obama leads Pawlenty by about 49-40 in todays PPP release.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting similarity:





In the first half of May, even Rasmussen had Obama at about 58-40 approval.

Does the increase in positive feelings about the state of the nation also lift Obama's approvals ?

[Tender Branson]

CBS News:

57% Approve
32% Disapprove

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 944 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone July 9-12, 2009. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_071309.pdf

[Tender Branson]

CBS News:

57% Approve
32% Disapprove

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 944 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone July 9-12, 2009. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_071309.pdf

CBS, washington polls  and NBC polls are always hack even Fox polls are pro democrats in the rates don't trust that sh**t ...

The poll is not really different than what Gallup showed between July 9-12 ...

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (Quinnipiac University)

Registered Voters

61% Approve
33% Disapprove

Likely Voters

60% Approve
34% Disapprove

From July 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,514 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1348

[Tender Branson]

Virginia (Rasmussen)

51% Approve
48% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 14, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_july_14_2009