If NC is a swing state, then so is NM...

[twenty42]

Yes...I understand Obama won NC in 2008 and Dems have carried NM comfortably in the last three elections. But before you laugh me off the board, let's look at some numbers...

2008 Nation: 7.26% D
2008 NC: 0.33% D
NC Tilt: 6.93% R

2012 Nation: 3.86% D
2012 NC: 2.04% R
NC Tilt: 5.9% R

2016 Nation: 2.09% D
2016 NC: 3.66% R
NC Tilt: 5.75% R

2008 Nation: 7.26% D
2008 NM: 15.13% D
NM Tilt: 7.87% D

2012 Nation: 3.86% D
2012 NM: 10.15% D
NM Tilt: 6.29% D

2016 Nation: 2.09% D
2016 NM: 8.21% D
NM Tilt: 6.12% D

Average NC Tilt, last three elections: 6.19% R
Average NM Tilt, last three elections: 6.76% D

As you can see, the states are pretty mirror images of each other. NC is negligibly trending D while NM is negligibly trending R, but both of their cushions for their respective parties are comfortable as well as mathematically similar.

My point here is not that NM is a swing state, but that NC isn't either. NM is a Likely D state that could flip in a Republican landslide, just as NC is a Likely R state that did flip in a Democratic landslide.

I think a lot of people list NC as a swing state simply because it voted D in 2008, but that is faulty reasoning. NC is no more of a swing state than NM, and NM is not a swing state at all.

[twenty42]

You're using the state's lean, relative to the national popular vote. The Dems have an advantage in the national popular vote, and therefore it's easier for them to win North Carolina than it is for the GOP to win New Mexico.

But that's my exact point. NC isn't voting D unless D's win the popular vote by 6-7%, and NM isn't voting R unless R's win the popular vote by 6-7%. One can't be a swing state while the other isn't...either they are both swing states or neither one of them are.

[twenty42]

Personally, I consider the definition of "swing state" to be a state that has voted for both parties at least once in the past three elections. While this definition isn't perfect (see: IN), it is more often than not a better one than people conflating "swing state" with "competitive state".

I'm sorry, but this is simply not a good barometer for swing states. Going with that measure, this would've been the swing state map for 2008...

And here is 1992...

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To your point, I am not conflating "swing" with "competitive"...that is actually my whole argument. NC was "competitive" and "close" in 2008 because Obama had a large national lead. The fact is that NC still had a significant R lean...he won it by 0.33% while winning by 7.26% nationally. Just as if Trump were to win by 7.26% in 2016, he would've most likely won NM by 1.14%. NM would've retained its significant D lean...but the nation would've pulled it to the other side.

My point is that no state that leans ~6% to either side should be considered a "swing" state. Both states would and should only be considered "competitive" in the case of a large national lead for either party.