🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Red Velvet]

See? I was right after all. When you’re Brazilian and is used to ill-intended actors with a hidden agenda trying to create false “scandals” to try to manipulate public opinion and overthrow the government, you simply become cynical and skeptical about that kind of stuff.

Extremely DUMB move to resign if you didn’t do anything wrong, though expected considering how weak and no-pulse European left tends to be. I get doing it if you know you’re guilty and is a matter of time to be caught, so you want to take your body out of the center of attentions. So when Costa resigned, I thought he might be guilty but still had the possibility of European Left being European Left again in the back of my mind.

Somebody should investigate if the prosecutor isn’t a voter/supporter of CHEGA just like Sérgio Moro immediately joined the Bolsonaro government after arresting Lula. People who buy that “mistakes” with consequences like these happen by accident are extremely extremely innocent and naive.

[CumbrianLefty]

We don't yet know if this is conspiracy or simple cock up, though.

[Red Velvet]

We don't yet know if this is conspiracy or simple cock up, though.

Hahaha sure we don’t!

But watch if this Sérgio Moro-like prosecutor will “resign” for this horrible “cock up”, like the Prime Minister did so easily like a wimp for something that wasn’t even about him.

It’s Costa’s own fault for giving up his position so easily before things got cleared up though, if he stayed as PM and these news of an “innocent mistake” came up then he wouldn’t look dumb as hell. But European “conformist” politics, especially for a smaller country like Portugal, don’t surprise me.

The bad thing about good people is that they assume everyone thinks and operates under the same rules they do. Resigning from any position based on people casting ~~suspicion~~ on you is the weakest dick energy I’ve seen in a long time. Everyone can cast suspicion at any time, what needs to happen is for things to be actually proved.

I’ve never seen this stuff, where accusations are enough for people to give up their positions and take the blame without an actual judgment and deep analysis of facts but the trend of lawfare has been absurdly growing globally for more than a decade now.

[Cassius]

Watching other European countries stepping up to the plate in this manner to make British politics look less ridiculous by comparison really makes me want to reconsider my lack of belief in European solidarity 🇪🇺.

[Red Velvet]

In the snap election, I wouldn’t support or have solidarity for PS after this major display of weakness btw. Though that doesn’t translate to support for the Right.

Inject CDU or BE in the veins all the way.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Extremely DUMB move to resign if you didn’t do anything wrong, though expected considering how weak and no-pulse European left tends to be. I get doing it if you know you’re guilty and is a matter of time to be caught, so you want to take your body out of the center of attentions. So when Costa resigned, I thought he might be guilty but still had the possibility of European Left being European Left again in the back of my mind.

Given President Marcelo has the unilateral authority to call a snap election, and I suspect he’d have triggered it if Costa failed to resign, I don’t think it really matters.

The real question for PS is whether Costa would perform better than a new leader in snap elections, and given the state of his cabinet that doesn’t seem likely, so he probably needed to be disposed of.

And the tens of thousands of cash seized from his chief of staff’s office indicate even if this was a mistake he’s got something murky going on.

[oldtimer]

We don't yet know if this is conspiracy or simple cock up, though.

Hahaha sure we don’t!

But watch if this Sérgio Moro-like prosecutor will “resign” for this horrible “cock up”, like the Prime Minister did so easily like a wimp for something that wasn’t even about him.

It’s Costa’s own fault for giving up his position so easily before things got cleared up though, if he stayed as PM and these news of an “innocent mistake” came up then he wouldn’t look dumb as hell. But European “conformist” politics, especially for a smaller country like Portugal, don’t surprise me.

The bad thing about good people is that they assume everyone thinks and operates under the same rules they do. Resigning from any position based on people casting ~~suspicion~~ on you is the weakest dick energy I’ve seen in a long time. Everyone can cast suspicion at any time, what needs to happen is for things to be actually proved.

I’ve never seen this stuff, where accusations are enough for people to give up their positions and take the blame without an actual judgment and deep analysis of facts but the trend of lawfare has been absurdly growing globally for more than a decade now.

Perhaps Costa did the crime and he thought they caught him and gave himself up.

This wasn't a typical fight to the death like all politicians do, it's more like a Columbo episode.

[Mike88]

Just an update on the whole Prosecutor's "error":

- The Prosecutor has reacted by saying that there is no mistake. They say they knew that in the tapes the "António Costa" was indeed the Economy minister and not the PM, because Lacerda Machada, when he's talking about Costa, only says "António". The earlier info was given by Lacerda Machado's lawyer when asked by reporters. There's still a lot of confusion about this and nothing is very clear yet;

- Responding to Red Velvet, regardless of error or not and Costa being investigated or not, Costa had basically no choice other than to resign. Seeing the speech he gave last night, you saw a man who felt betrayed by those he had complete trust and he's now paying the price for also protecting some of them, Galamba for example. AustralianSwingVoter is right on bringing up President Marcelo, who advised and pressured, over and over again, Costa to do a big reshuffle as there were a lot of "death height" in cabinet and the government, and Costa didn't listen. I said this last Tuesday when this whole thing started, I don't think Costa did anything illegal, but he picked the wrong people to surround himself with and that was his downfall.

The real question for PS is whether Costa would perform better than a new leader in snap elections, and given the state of his cabinet that doesn’t seem likely, so he probably needed to be disposed of.

Costa would easily defeat the PSD in a snap election if he was running again, but would certainly lose his majority as in other areas of government, Education, NHS, Housing, Cost of Living, everything is going downhill. A new PS leader, almost certain it will be Pedro Nuno Santos, has the downside of not being tested and being unpopular, but because the PSD leader is also not very popular, I would say that the chances for the PS, right now, are 50/50.

[Mike88]

At the same time the investigation is making headlines, on the political front, things are also happening fast:

- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Affairs Minister, officially launched his campaign to the PS leadership, yesterday, in Coimbra city.

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1723399231913005262

José Luís Carneiro announces candidacy for PS leadership

Speaking to a few supporters, José Luís Carneiro said that in these difficult times it's "indispensable" that the PS gives to the Portuguese "a response to its responsibilities as the founding party of the regime", in which freedom, democracy and the rule of law prevail. He added that regardless of differences of opinion "democracy is ennobled by the elevation of procedures and the sincerity of conduct". He finalized by saying that the PS can count on him.

Earlier today, on an interview to TVI, Carneiro said he's open to support a PSD minority government in order to block CHEGA from power. He also criticized Pedro Nuno Santos for "aligning" himself with anti-NATO parties and for trashing the government's recent policies.

Pedro Nuno Santos will officially launch his campaign tomorrow at 6pm.

[crals]

The braindead conspiracy theories in this thread are really not necessary. The mistake made by the prosecutors is embarrassing, but it's not like the reason for Costa's investigation was that one mention.

[Red Velvet]

The braindead conspiracy theories in this thread are really not necessary. The mistake made by the prosecutors is embarrassing, but it's not like the reason for Costa's investigation was that one mention.

Braindead is to still talk about it like it was only an “embarrassing error” like it’s a minor unimportant detail when each new development evidences it worked as it was intended to.

If the Portuguese MP never assumed the Antonio Costa being talked about wasn’t the Prime-Minister, then tell me HOW the real Antonio Costa e Silva that was being referred to ISN’T even involved in the process to begin with? That kind of stuff simply does not exist in any civilized place, it’s like adding 2 + 2.

Or are you telling me that you buy that the Ministério Público simply mistook the Antonio Costas even if one of them is the freaking Prime Minister? Poor things, so innocent!

There’s a clear name for this: Political Persecution. I’ve heard Car-Washers gaslight the Brazilian Left with the same lines about conspiracy and in the end we obviously were proven right because it was on everybody faces.

It’s not ONLY politicians that play dirty games like these even if people tend to naturally give their word less credit while automatically buying everything OTHER institutions composed by people (who can be as corrupt as politicians) say.

And obviously, all that doesn’t mean Antonio Costa is proven to be the cleanest person or even that he should be kept in power! But it doesn’t change how extremely fishy this whole deal to get rid of him is. Because I definitely do not buy the story of an “innocent error” by the Portuguese Public Ministry in simply mistaking who the Prime Minister actually is.

[Mike88]

Red Velvet, you cannot evaluate Costa's position with just this supposed error by the Prosecutor. There many other tapes in which Costa is clearly referred. You have to look at the background. He was reelected with a surprise majority on January 2022. He had all the ingredients to form a stable and competent government in order to tackle Portugal's big issues: The NHS, Education, our weak GDP growth and many others. But, what we had in return was constant government instability, policy fiascos, resignations after resignations and Costa was warned, time and time again, that not changing his team would cost him dearly. He bought wars with the President, with teachers unions, with NHS unions, he created a climate of tension, despite warnings and pleas from everyone, even within his own party, and what happen last week was just the final straw. I repeat again, even if Costa wasn't a suspect of any wrongdoing, he would become a lame-duck PM, because Marcelo would say "enough is enough", for now on "I'm the one in charge", the ministers would be "picked" by the President (there is a past of ministers being blocked by Presidents) and Costa would be a diminished PM with little powers, trapped in the hands of the President. His team made several mistakes and as team leader he had to take one for the team, because the root of the mistakes was himself.

[Red Velvet]

Red Velvet, you cannot evaluate Costa's position with just this supposed error by the Prosecutor. There many other tapes in which Costa is clearly referred. You have to look at the background. He was reelected with a surprise majority on January 2022. He had all the ingredients to form a stable and competent government in order to tackle Portugal's big issues: The NHS, Education, our weak GDP growth and many others. But, what we had in return was constant government instability, policy fiascos, resignations after resignations and Costa was warned, time and time again, that not changing his team would cost him dearly. He bought wars with the President, with teachers unions, with NHS unions, he created a climate of tension, despite warnings and pleas from everyone, even within his own party, and what happen last week was just the final straw. I repeat again, even if Costa wasn't a suspect of any wrongdoing, he would become a lame-duck PM, because Marcelo would say "enough is enough", for now on "I'm the one in charge", the ministers would be "picked" by the President (there is a past of ministers being blocked by Presidents) and Costa would be a diminished PM with little powers, trapped in the hands of the President. His team made several mistakes and as team leader he had to take one for the team, because the root of the mistakes was himself.

I understand, which is why I said that doesn’t mean Costa should/would be kept in power. But if he would be powerless and a lame-duck like you say because he bought too many fights anyway, there was also no need for this dirty play to take him down either. One thing doesn’t nullify the other.

Or do you buy that the Portuguese Ministério Público simply didn’t know WHICH Antônio Costa the conversations were about and innocently revealed this information to the public and the press, “accidentally” resulting on the PM resignation? And if there wasn’t a mistake and they did know who was who, then why the info was leaked incorrectly? What was the purpose of it?

If Costa would go down anyway, that stuff simply isn’t necessary and could even maybe help the PS in a way that wouldn’t because they’re basically opening the door for this to be interpreted as a “Soft Coup” by the PS supporters - even if it 100% isn’t because Costa chose to resign by himself, therefore having only himself to blame. But if an attempt was made, it still makes them look more as the victims in this game of power and puts into question the expected neutrality of other Portuguese Institutions like the MP.

[Mike88]

Red Velvet, you cannot evaluate Costa's position with just this supposed error by the Prosecutor. There many other tapes in which Costa is clearly referred. You have to look at the background. He was reelected with a surprise majority on January 2022. He had all the ingredients to form a stable and competent government in order to tackle Portugal's big issues: The NHS, Education, our weak GDP growth and many others. But, what we had in return was constant government instability, policy fiascos, resignations after resignations and Costa was warned, time and time again, that not changing his team would cost him dearly. He bought wars with the President, with teachers unions, with NHS unions, he created a climate of tension, despite warnings and pleas from everyone, even within his own party, and what happen last week was just the final straw. I repeat again, even if Costa wasn't a suspect of any wrongdoing, he would become a lame-duck PM, because Marcelo would say "enough is enough", for now on "I'm the one in charge", the ministers would be "picked" by the President (there is a past of ministers being blocked by Presidents) and Costa would be a diminished PM with little powers, trapped in the hands of the President. His team made several mistakes and as team leader he had to take one for the team, because the root of the mistakes was himself.

I understand, which is why I said that doesn’t mean Costa should/would be kept in power. But if he would be powerless and a lame-duck like you say because he bought too many fights anyway, there was also no need for this dirty play to take him down either. One thing doesn’t nullify the other.

Or do you buy that the Portuguese Ministério Público simply didn’t know WHICH Antônio Costa the conversations were about and innocently revealed this information to the public and the press, “accidentally” resulting on the PM resignation? And if there wasn’t a mistake and they did know who was who, then why the info was leaked incorrectly? What was the purpose of it?

If Costa would go down anyway, that stuff simply isn’t necessary and could even maybe help the PS in a way that wouldn’t because they’re basically opening the door for this to be interpreted as a “Soft Coup” by the PS supporters - even if it 100% isn’t because Costa chose to resign by himself, therefore having only himself to blame. But if an attempt was made, it still makes them look more as the victims in this game of power and puts into question the expected neutrality of other Portuguese Institutions like the MP.

The so-called error was revealed by the lawyers of one of the suspects arrested. Then the confusion started because they told reporters that the Prosecutor had admitted an error, but then the Prosecutor said that there was no mistake and that they always knew that this specific tape was about António Costa e Silva, not PM António Costa. The only error here, it seems, is that in the transcript was missing the "e Silva". Which is nonetheless an embarrasing mistake and that the Prosecutor needs to explain clearly.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The main takeaway of this crisis quickly went from "the PS is the living embodiment of the adage that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely" to "Portugal needs more surnames".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Now, I agree that elections will not solve the problem, but there was also no alternative. Marcelo said so in Costa's swearing in ceremony 2 years ago, and what the PS wanted, Centeno as PM, was just impossible and almost unconstitutional. A new PS leader, like Pedro Nuno Santos as PM, would also create instability as he's against many of Costa's policies and this "clash" would intensify further tensions within the PS. If the election wasn't in March, it would be held like in October. In the end, the sole responsable for this crisis is Costa. He may not have done anything wrong, but he protected, he enabled many people around and close to him to act wrongly, and he's now paying the price.

That would have been extremely Italian, and I say this in the most derogatory way possible. Although truly even worse than us, because at least we've never done it after single-party majority governments as we've never had them in the first place.

[Mike88]

Now, I agree that elections will not solve the problem, but there was also no alternative. Marcelo said so in Costa's swearing in ceremony 2 years ago, and what the PS wanted, Centeno as PM, was just impossible and almost unconstitutional. A new PS leader, like Pedro Nuno Santos as PM, would also create instability as he's against many of Costa's policies and this "clash" would intensify further tensions within the PS. If the election wasn't in March, it would be held like in October. In the end, the sole responsable for this crisis is Costa. He may not have done anything wrong, but he protected, he enabled many people around and close to him to act wrongly, and he's now paying the price.

That would have been extremely Italian, and I say this in the most derogatory way possible. Although truly even worse than us, because at least we've never done it after single-party majority governments as we've never had them in the first place.

Yeah. But, unlike Italy, the constitution here basically forbids a President of nominating outside people to become PM. He can only nominate at the advise of Parliament and/or the Government. This happens because in the 70's, there were the Presidential government of Ramalho Eanes and they were a massive fiasco, so, in the 1982 constitutional review, the President lost the power to nominate presidential governments.

And there's more. Centeno said that he received from President Marcelo an invitation to reflect the possibility of leading the government, but quickly after this revelation, Belém Palace sent out a statement saying that the President never did such thing, and now Centeno  has "retracted" his earlier statement and says he wasn't invited by the President after all.

[Mike88]

The Lisbon Central Court Judge, that had been hearing the suspects in the last few days, has issued his ruling:

- All the suspects and those arrested will be released without charge pending further investigation;
- Lacerda Machado, Costa's so-called best friend, will be released on a 150,000 euros bail but is forbidden to leave the country and has to give up his passport;
- Vítor Escária, Costa's former chief of staff, will also be realesed but has also to give up his passport;
- The businessmen and the mayor of Sines will have to communicate every absence and travels to the authorities;
- Crimes of corruption have been dismissed by the Judge and only crimes of influence peddling stand;

This ruling by the Judge is a very big setback for the Prosecutor, who asked for harsher measures. However, the Prosecutor can still appeal to the intermediate level court, Relação Court.

At the same time the ruling was being given, Minister João Galamba resigned:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1724102876606382386

In a statement sent to the press, Galamba says that he tendered his resignation to PM Costa and that after a profund "personal and family reflection", he made the decision to resign in order to ensure to his family the "traquility and discretion they have right to".

I'm coming up with the conclusion that Costa's resignation was much more related to the political and personal blow he suffered, rather than the case surrounding him. Like I said previously, his past mistakes catched up with him, and now he lost control of the situation. Regarding the Prosecutor, this is not the first time the Prosecutor is accused of going "too far". We all remembered how the bombshell Casa Pia child abuse case ended, how all the Sócrates cases, his university degree, the Face Oculta and his personal finances, ended, or rather, are still ongoing. And let's not talk about local government corruption investigations, as we would pass the limit of posts allowed in the forum.

[Mike88]

Pedro Nuno Santos officially launches his campaign for the PS leadership:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1724132941154927078

“The Portuguese know my successes, but they also know my mistakes and my scars. Yes, the mistakes we make and the scars we carry are part of our lives”, assumes the candidate for socialist leader.

In a very crowded room, the opposite of his opponent, at the PS national headquarters, Pedro Nuno Santos launched his campaign for the PS leadership. He started by saying that the moment is very difficult for the party and thanked António Costa for his work as PM for 8 years. He went on to say that his scars and mistakes are well known to the Portuguese, but that they also know his nonconformity and combativeness. He then talked about his hometown, S. João da Madeira, a blue-collar town with a lot of factories, and that he grew up seeing the difficulties of families and all the injustices and inequalities. Because of this, he pointed that only with good and decent wages will workers feel valued and respected. As well pensioners need better pensions. He then talked about housing, the territory and the NHS. He said that the rightwing failed in their promises in the past and that they cannot be trusted when they reject deals with the "populist, racist and xenophobic right", because, according to him, in the end they will forge those deals regardless. He finalized by saying that the PS isn't divided and the PS will remain as "common space for those who believe in freedom and equality".

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %: (compared with the CNN poll from October)

26% PS (-2)
25% PSD (+1)
17% CHEGA (+4)
  8% BE (+1)
  6% IL (+1)
  3% CDU (-1)
  3% Livre (nc)
  3% PAN (nc)
  1% CDS (-1)
  2% Others/Invalid (-3)
  5% Undecided (-1)

Better chance of becoming PM?

40% Luís Montenegro
33% Pedro Nuno Santos
27% Undecided

43% Luís Montenegro
28% José Luís Carneiro
29% Undecided

Poll conducted between 10 and 13 November 2023. Polled 504 voters. MoE of 4.40%.

[VPH]

Pedro Nuno Santo represents the left of PS, while José Luís Carneiro seems to be more from the centrist side. Am I correct on this? 

[Velasco]

I tend to disbelieve conspiracy theories,  but this "embarrasing error" in conjunction with the far-right rise don't promise well for Portugal and its political system. In order to form government after elections, what do you think is the likeliest outcome among the avalaible alternatives?

[Mike88]

Pedro Nuno Santo represents the left of PS, while José Luís Carneiro seems to be more from the centrist side. Am I correct on this?  

Yep. Pedro Nuno Santos is trying to give a more moderate image to himself, but he clearly represents a break from Costa's leadership line. Unlike Carneiro, he's open to talks with BE and PCP and doesn't seem open to support a PSD minority, something Carneiro has already said he would consider in order to block CHEGA from power.

I tend to disbelieve conspiracy theories,  but this "embarrasing error" in conjunction with the far-right rise don't promise well for Portugal and its political system. In order to form government after elections, what do you think is the likeliest outcome among the avalaible alternatives?

The "error" is a bit embarrasing, but nothing surprising. In fact, conspiracy theories regarding all of this fall when you look at the pattern of the Prosecutor in previous cases, as they acted exactly the same. In the Casa Pia, Sócrates, Benfica and the recent Altice and even Rui Rio raids, the Prosecutor made big raids but then the cases dragged on in time. There are always big criticisms regarding the way the Prosecutor acts, that they are merciless and that they go too far, and in this case, it hit hard on the heart of the Portuguese government. However, these are the powers that they gave to the Prosecutor, which ironically was the PS under PM José Sócrates, and many of the suspicions, like influence peddling, are consequences of the lack of policy regulation, as, for example, lobbying is illegal in Portugal and, in this kind of cases, the line between what's legal and illegal is basically impossible to find. But, you have to separate the legal and political consequences of all of this. Costa arrived here with a lot of "scandal baggage" and this one was the last straw, so, regardless of the investigations, he had little choice at this point other than leaving.

The outcome of the election is wide open, although the two candidates for the PS leadership have different approaches. like I wrote in my reply to VPH: If Pedro Nuno Santos (PNS) wins the leadership, we will have a clear dispute between the right and left blocks, with the PS probably not supporting any kind of PSD minority, or the PSD not supporting a PS minority. Carneiro is rejecting deals with PCP and BE and is open to deals with the PSD. A PS win with a rightwing majority, could force Montenegro to leave the leadership, and, who knows, bring the return of Passos Coelho, this, of course, if Montenegro doesn't eat his "own words" and accepts forming a government anyway. A PSD win with a leftwing majority seems very unlikely, while if the PS wins and has a majority with the leftwing parties, a remake of the "Geringonça" will be an almost certainty.

In other news, with the government in its last days, the most unpopular policy in the 2024 draft budget has fallen:

(...)
The same single circulation tax increase which is becoming more and more unpopular, with the online petition against it approaching 300,000 signatures and counting, a record high. In the PS, many are also fearful of the social impacts of this tax increase and are asking for changes, but, so far, Costa is irreducible.

Also, today, protests against the controversial, and unpopular, rise of the of the single circulation tax (IUC) for cars prior to 2007, were held across the country, with cars going on slow and loud horn marches in the downtowns of the major cities, which basically blocked traffic:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1724585785121481204

Medina left the door open, PS retreated. Controversial IUC increase falls apart

The PS has followed the rest of the Opposition and despite the warnings of the Finance minister, the tax increase will fall. Medina left the door open to the PS, and although the caucus was divided on the topic, the PS will propose a budget change to scrap the unpopular single circulation tax increase.

[Mike88]

PS leadership ballot update:

- Pedro Nuno Santos has won the support of the leaders of 16 out of the 21 district branches of the party, and that includes the "3 big ones", Lisbon, Porto and Braga;

- José Luís Carneiro has only won the support of 2 district parties, Bragança and Madeira, but is collecting high profile endorsments: Speaker Augusto Santos Silva, Finance minister Fernando Medina, and former minister António Vieira da Silva are supporting Carneiro;

- With two candidates on the ballot, a third could also appear: Daniel Adrião, longtime adversary of António Costa in previous leadership ballots, is considering running, again, for the leadership. He says that both PNS and Carneiro are "heirs of Costism" and don't have any "reformist ambition". He's expected to make a decision until Saturday;

- The party currently has around 80,000 members, but only those who pay their party fees until early December will be able to vote;

[Velasco]

[

The outcome of the election is wide open, although the two candidates for the PS leadership have different approaches. like I wrote in my reply to VPH: If Pedro Nuno Santos (PNS) wins the leadership, we will have a clear dispute between the right and left blocks, with the PS probably not supporting any kind of PSD minority, or the PSD not supporting a PS minority. Carneiro is rejecting deals with PCP and BE and is open to deals with the PSD. A PS win with a rightwing majority, could force Montenegro to leave the leadership, and, who knows, bring the return of Passos Coelho, this, of course, if Montenegro doesn't eat his "own words" and accepts forming a government anyway. A PSD win with a leftwing majority seems very unlikely, while if the PS wins and has a majority with the leftwing parties, a remake of the "Geringonça" will be an almost certainty.

From all the possible scenarios you outlined, a PS plurality with a right-wing majority seems very plausible. As for the return of Passos Coelho, I'm trying to imagine a Rajoy or Aznar comeback to lead a PP-VOX coalition government. Certainly it'd be a legitimate government, but also a dystopia for me. Regarding Passos Coelho, is the father of austerity in Portugal popular nowadays?