🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

75,800 euros in cash were found by the police in Costa's Chief of Staff office inside the PM's official residence.

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1722406921226035623

Vítor Escária with fortune in his office, thousands of euros seized

75,800 euros in cash were seized on Tuesday in the office of Vítor Escária, António Costa's chief of staff, SIC found.

The money was found by the PSP and prosecutors from the Public Ministry in Operation Influencer, the name that SIC knows was chosen for the entire case.

More. António Costa is linked to the facts under investigation in more than 20 telephone taps. According to the newspaper Observador, the oldest is from November 2020.

Operation Influencer investigates three major businesses: lithium, green hydrogen and the Sines data center. Regarding the latter, João Galamba will have taken legislative proposals made by the promoting company to the Council of Ministers.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on the government/political crisis:

Q: In your opinion, the President of the Republic should ask the PS to pick a new Prime Minister or should the President of the Republic call snap general elections?

67.8% Call snap general elections
25.7% Ask for a new Prime Minister
  6.5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 7 and 8 November 2023. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Later this evening, the voting intentions for each party will be revealed.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo announced the dissolution of Parliament and snap elections on 10 March 2024.

He asked PM Costa to remain in office until the new elected government is sworn in. The draft budget for 2024 will be approved on 29 November and only after that will President Marcelo sign the decree that dissolves Parliament. The President also extended the calender a bit in order for the PS to elect a new leader.

[Mike88]

According to the media, the Council of State was split regarding a snap general election, with 8 members voting in favour and 8 against.

Parties have already reacted to the President's decision:

- Costa (PS) said that we should respect the President's decision but that the country didn't deserve a snap election and he revealed that he proposed Mário Centeno, incumbent Governor of the Bank of Portugal, as the new PM, which was rejected by President Marcelo;

- Montenegro (PSD) applauded the President's decision, adding that he will run a campaign with "humility but with a lot of ambition";

- Ventura (CHEGA) accepted the President's decision but was sorry that the election isn't earlier;

- Rui Rocha (IL) also says the elections should be earlier, but that he hopes that this is "the last time the PS delays the country";

- PCP is "happy" with the President's decision but, just like CHEGA and IL, also preferred an earlier election;

- BE says that elections were a "necessary decision" and added that in democracy there are always solutions;

- PAN said that it will fight for transparancy in the election, and hope that the ongoing cases will not weaken turnout;

- Rui Tavares (Livre) said the situation is bad and that the political culture in Portugal needs to change, warning that in the year the 1974 revolution will mark 50 years, it will not be a commemoration but rather a fight to save it;

This is the first time in Portuguese democracy that a single party majority government does not complete its full term.

[Mike88]

Regarding the PS leadership election:

- The ballot will be held on 15 and 16 December, with a party congress to "coronate" the new leader on 6 and 7 January 2024 in Lisbon city;

- Pedro Nuno Santos is going to run and could announce it publicly in the coming hours. Interior Affairs minister, José Luís Carneiro, is still pondering a run;

[Oryxslayer]

I know I may be asking a lot, but I think it would be beneficial for one of the regulars to do a tl:Dr on events for a few months prior to the raid, resignation,  and now dissolution. Doesn't have to be now, just whenever you can get around to it.
The reason is cause one would think this type of thing guarantees a transfer of power to the PSD, but I recall something about them having leadership/internal issues but don't know why. And even so, they would likely require Chega in some form, which is a whole other situation with its own developments

[Mike88]

- Pedro Nuno Santos is going to run and could announce it publicly in the coming hours. Interior Affairs minister, José Luís Carneiro, is still pondering a run;

José Luís Carneiro announced, on tonight's PS Political Committee meeting, that he's indeed a candidate for the leadership. So far, it's PNS vs JLS.

[Mike88]

I know I may be asking a lot, but I think it would be beneficial for one of the regulars to do a tl:Dr on events for a few months prior to the raid, resignation,  and now dissolution. Doesn't have to be now, just whenever you can get around to it.
The reason is cause one would think this type of thing guarantees a transfer of power to the PSD, but I recall something about them having leadership/internal issues but don't know why. And even so, they would likely require Chega in some form, which is a whole other situation with its own developments

Just in 2023, this is the 3rd political crisis hitting the Government:

This video from TLDR explains well the last two scandals in December 2022/January 2023 and May 2023:

And now of the current crisis:

Regarding the PSD, the rightwing is right now very divided and because the PSD has a weak leader, it's not seen as a strong alternative and sometimes looks that it has hibernated. CHEGA and IL, but especially the first, are attracting a lot of voters fed up with the "status quo" of PS-PSD of the last 47 years, and the last few days were just gold for them. Plus, Montenegro's constant "flip flops" regarding CHEGA, he started with a "no comment", to a "we'll see" and is now on a "no is no", makes him look as indecisive and not very reliable. The PSD is known for being a "leader crusher machine" if you are seen as weak and don't win elections, and Montenegro has basically a sword over his head. To make things more complicated for him, a vast part of the party still sighs for former PM Pedro Passos Coelho, who see him like a "savior" of the rightwing.

The PSD starts this whole electoral process probably in the pole position, however, no one knows how will Montenegro perform on the campaign trail and even facing someone like Pedro Nuno Santos. Like I said above, Montenegro is now against any deals with CHEGA, but because he has gone back and forward so many times, no one knows for sure.

[Mike88]

Later this evening, the voting intentions for each party will be revealed.

Intercampus poll for CMTV and CM/Negócios newspapers:

Vote share %: (after 19.1% of undecideds are excluded)

27.0% PSD (-0.9)
22.2% PS (-5.1)
16.1% CHEGA (+3.4)
  9.8% BE (+2.5)
  8.7% IL (-0.3)
  4.0% CDU (-0.4)
  3.3% Livre (+1.8 )
  2.8% PAN (-0.7)
  2.5% CDS (+0.8 )
  3.6% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Poll conducted between 7 and 8 November 2023. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Another bizarre thing from this whole crisis is that one of the main suspects, disgraced minister João Galamba, hasn't yet been sacked or resigned.

PM Costa fired his Chief of Staff, Vítor Escária, yesterday after it was revelead he had a small fortune hidden in wine boxes and books in his office in the PM's official residence. Costa reacted by saying he had no knowledge of the hidden money and also said he will talk with President Marcelo regarding Galamba's situation.

[Mike88]

Another bizarre thing from this whole crisis is that one of the main suspects, disgraced minister João Galamba, hasn't yet been sacked or resigned.

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1723010123226919391

João Galamba refused to resign. The position was taken after Paulo Moniz from the PSD insisted on whether Galamba was going to resign or not.

Galamba refuses to resign. "I don't intend to"

This guy is just unbelievable. For God sake.

[Estrella]

27.0% PSD (-0.9)
22.2% PS (-5.1)
16.1% CHEGA (+3.4)
  9.8% BE (+2.5)
  8.7% IL (-0.3)
  4.0% CDU (-0.4)
  3.3% Livre (+1.8 )
  2.8% PAN (-0.7)
  2.5% CDS (+0.8 )
  3.6% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Chega, BE and Livre benefiting from the PS collapse while PSD doesn't move an inch. How very #globaltrends. I suppose the 20%-ish remaining PS voters have the demographic composition of a retirement home.

Back in the 80s/90s/00s when there were what looks to be huge numbers of PS-PSD swing voters, were there some social groups that were more swingy than the rest? Like, let's say, lower middle class changing their vote depending on the economic situation, or northern working class swinging between voting based on "northern" and on "working class", or some particular region prone to wild swings (I don't know if any of this makes sense, I'm just guessing based on what I think I know about Portugal).

[Mike88]

27.0% PSD (-0.9)
22.2% PS (-5.1)
16.1% CHEGA (+3.4)
  9.8% BE (+2.5)
  8.7% IL (-0.3)
  4.0% CDU (-0.4)
  3.3% Livre (+1.8 )
  2.8% PAN (-0.7)
  2.5% CDS (+0.8 )
  3.6% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Chega, BE and Livre benefiting from the PS collapse while PSD doesn't move an inch. How very #globaltrends. I suppose the 20%-ish remaining PS voters have the demographic composition of a retirement home.

Back in the 80s/90s/00s when there were what looks to be huge numbers of PS-PSD swing voters, were there some social groups that were more swingy than the rest? Like, let's say, lower middle class changing their vote depending on the economic situation, or northern working class swinging between voting based on "northern" and on "working class", or some particular region prone to wild swings (I don't know if any of this makes sense, I'm just guessing based on what I think I know about Portugal).

The poll is exactly what I would expect at this point. And yeah, there are still no crosstabs available of the poll, but almost certain that the PS vote is only holding up due to elderly voters.

Well, back in 80s/90s/00s, the electorate had some changes, but there were parts that were stable: the PS had, and has, a strong base in urban areas and lower class voters, while the PSD had, and also still has, in rural areas, but also upper class voters. But, circumstances changes things. For example, the PSD under Cavaco Silva, 1985-1995, had a massive female support, Cavaco Silva was seen as "sexy" by many women, I'm not joking, and also had a lot of support in urban areas and from all backgrounds. After 1995, there were big changes. The female vote swung heavily to the PS, while the male vote trended for the PSD. The urban vote also became very strong for the PS, as many lower middle class voters became a faithful constituency for the party. The main change was the shift to the right of the youth vote, especially since the Sócrates years, and the massive shift to the PS of elderly voters, a consequence of the troika pension policies.

In terms of regions, there are some examples: The North, excluding the Porto metro area, is more aligned with the PSD, but Braga district is the "Portuguese Ohio" as it has always voted with the winner in every general election since 1976. It's a middle-class, working-class district with lots of swing voters. The "factory belt" that surrounds the Porto metro area, and that includes Braga, Porto and Aveiro districts, also swings from election to election. The Viseu area is very strong for the PSD, while Coimbra district tends to vote more leftwing. Leiria and the upper part of Santarém district are basically PSD country, while Lisbon is very diverse: Lisbon city and the "Portuguese Riviera" swing back and forward but have a strong rightwing base, mainly affluent and upper class voters. The rest of Lisbon metro area is very leftwing, especially the Setúbal peninsula. The South, Alentejo and Algarve, are very PS-aligned. The islands are also different: Madeira is PSD no matter what, while Azores swing a lot. But, the tipping point for anyone to win is getting enough votes in the Lisbon and Porto metro areas.

[crals]

PSD's own leader is involved in a scandal. They will struggle to present themselves as the moral high ground to PS. I would say that poll is even worse for PSD than for PS.

[Mike88]

PSD's own leader is involved in a scandal. They will struggle to present themselves as the moral high ground to PS. I would say that poll is even worse for PSD than for PS.

What scandal? His house issue in Espinho? Regardless of scandals or not, the problem of Montenegro is that he's... how can I put this, well, flimsy. But, I agree that this poll is bad for the PSD, but it's what I expected. And let's not rule out that the PS could pretty well win the March election.

[crals]

PSD's own leader is involved in a scandal. They will struggle to present themselves as the moral high ground to PS. I would say that poll is even worse for PSD than for PS.

What scandal? His house issue in Espinho? Regardless of scandals or not, the problem of Montenegro is that he's... how can I put this, well, flimsy. But, I agree that this poll is bad for the PSD, but it's what I expected. And let's not rule out that the PS could pretty well win the March election.

Yes, the weird stuff that happened in Espinho, although that is of course less serious than the PS scandals. I find him quite uncharismatic as well and lacking a vision for the country. Wouldn't be terribly surprised if the PS somehow comes out on top again.

[Mike88]

PSD's own leader is involved in a scandal. They will struggle to present themselves as the moral high ground to PS. I would say that poll is even worse for PSD than for PS.

What scandal? His house issue in Espinho? Regardless of scandals or not, the problem of Montenegro is that he's... how can I put this, well, flimsy. But, I agree that this poll is bad for the PSD, but it's what I expected. And let's not rule out that the PS could pretty well win the March election.

Yes, the weird stuff that happened in Espinho, although that is of course less serious than the PS scandals. I find him quite uncharismatic as well and lacking a vision for the country. Wouldn't be terribly surprised if the PS somehow comes out on top again.

Regarding that case, I don't know what's worse, he allegedly not paying all the taxes or just the bad architectural taste of the house. Anyway, nowadays here in Portugal everyone has their own scandals, even President Marcelo is under "suspicion". The rest, I 100% agree with you. Not sure what would happen if a PS led by Pedro Nuno Santos wins, but with a rightwing majority. Perhaps, the "arising" of Passos Coelho in a white horse on a foggy morning in order to unite the rightwing.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for DN newspaper on the political/government crisis:

Q1: PS leadership ballot:

30% Pedro Nuno Santos
19% Fernando Medina (not running)
  9% José Luís Carneiro
  6% Carlos César (not running)
  3% Other
33% Undecided

Q2: Degree of trust in institutions following the political crisis:

63% Low/Very low
24% Average
12% High/Very high
  1% Undecided

Q3: Costa's decision to resign:

82% Agree/Strongly agree
11% Neither agree or disagree
  6% Disagree/Strongly disagree
  1% Undecided

Q4: Best choice from the President of the Republic:

56% Dissolve Parliament and call elections
39% Pick a new PM from the existing majority in Parliament
  5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 9 November 2023. Polled 516 voters. MoE of 4.30%.

[Red Velvet]

I will never understand European love for constant elections evidenced by these opinion polls. Soon you’ll become Israel on the matter lol

Maybe I’m just not informed enough, but I don’t understand why Costa had to resign for a crisis where nothing was even proved yet? Even if stuff WAS proved I would still be low-key shook about a politician resigning for it, but doing it because of mere SUSPICION is something my mind isn’t able to fully process.

Like, anyone can create Suspicion about anything at any time. Resigning because of suspicion to my ears sounds either like early admission of guilt and you’re pulling your body out of spotlight before stuff gets proved OR like major wimp signaling weakness and not being able to handle when a crisis hits.

Anyway, considering PSD isn’t that clean either, you’re only strengthening CHEGA for these new snap elections. I cannot with the European Left.

[Mike88]

I will never understand European love for constant elections evidenced by these opinion polls. Soon you’ll become Israel on the matter lol

Maybe I’m just not informed enough, but I don’t understand why Costa had to resign for a crisis where nothing was even proved yet? Even if stuff WAS proved I would still be low-key shook about a politician resigning for it, but doing it because of mere SUSPICION is something my mind isn’t able to fully process.

Like, anyone can create Suspicion about anything at any time. Resigning because of suspicion to my ears sounds either like early admission of guilt and you’re pulling your body out of spotlight before stuff gets proved OR like major wimp signaling weakness and not being able to handle when a crisis hits.

Anyway, considering PSD isn’t that clean either, you’re only strengthening CHEGA for these new snap elections. I cannot with the European Left.

This was just the last straw of a series of fatal mistakes that Costa made and that are now hitting him in the face. In just this year, this is the 3rd crisis in the government: The first was in January, the famous TAPgate, in which a series of decisons regarding a monetary compensation in the airline, showed wide incompetence and led to the resignation of Pedro Nuno Santos as Infrastructures minister. Marcelo advised Costa to do a total reshuffle of his cabinet in order to have a clean restart. Costa refused and nominated João Galamba as successor of PNS, which upsetted Marcelo. In May, the Galambagate broke, in which one of his aides had a physical fight in the ministry building, a laptop was "stolen", the Secret Services were called, just a pathetic scene. By then, Marcelo wanted Galamba sacked, but Costa, once again, refused and "bought a war" with the President. Now, the lithium and hydrogen deals, which were always shady, hit people very close to Costa and, again, João Galamba. Although nothing is proven yet, the facts already known, the money found in his chief of staff office, the wiretaps in which Costa's best friend and advisor clearly says he can "pressure" the PM for favourable decisions for private companies, made Costa's position impossible and he had no other choice.

Now, I agree that elections will not solve the problem, but there was also no alternative. Marcelo said so in Costa's swearing in ceremony 2 years ago, and what the PS wanted, Centeno as PM, was just impossible and almost unconstitutional. A new PS leader, like Pedro Nuno Santos as PM, would also create instability as he's against many of Costa's policies and this "clash" would intensify further tensions within the PS. If the election wasn't in March, it would be held like in October. In the end, the sole responsable for this crisis is Costa. He may not have done anything wrong, but he protected, he enabled many people around and close to him to act wrongly, and he's now paying the price.

[crals]

It's not just any suspicious, it's an ongoing criminal investigation on the PM himself. There's no way a government could go on under these conditions in any civilized country . Costa did the bare minimum by resigning and it's a pity Galamba seems unable to do the same.

[Mike88]

PM Costa to deliver another speech to the Nation tonight. It seems he will explain the bussiness deals, Lithium, Green Hydrogen and the Data Center, involved in the ongoing investigations. Questions from reporters will be allowed.

[Mike88]

PM Costa to deliver another speech to the Nation tonight. It seems he will explain the bussiness deals, Lithium, Green Hydrogen and the Data Center, involved in the ongoing investigations. Questions from reporters will be allowed.

Costa's speech: PM says he's "ashamed" and that he was betrayed by his close friends, adding that a PM has "no friends".

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1723434442285633994

Costa apologizes for money found in São Bento: “It embarrasses me”

Accompanied by his wife, PM Costa delivered a speech regarding the ongoing political crisis. He started by apologizing to the Portuguese people for the money found hidden in the PMs official residence, adding he was betrayed by someone he had full trust. He went on to explain the deals investigated in the Prosecutor's investigation, by saying the goal of any Government is to reach a final result that upholds the public interest, adding that future governments need to have political freedom to put into practice their own strategies. He says he's not aware of the charges against him but is waiting to be called, adding that, with high probablity, he will never again hold public offices. He pressed that Portugal needs investments in order to have a future and that having a law shouldn't froze us in the fear of breaking that law, warning of the excess of bureaucracy in Portugal. Regarding his "best friend", Costa said he had an "unhappy" moment while refering to Lacerda Machado like that, revealing that a PM has no friends and the longer it remains in office, the fewer it has.

The media's reactions are mixed: Some say that this was a "Costa rally" against the Prosecutor, while others say that Costa is just being a victim of himself for not tackling issues like transparency and bureaucracy.

[Mike88]

After last Tuesday's bomb, another big one this Sunday: Public Prosecutor admits they made a mistake while transcripting the wiretaps and mixed up PM António Costa's name with Economy minister António Costa e Silva:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1723670166267982104

The Public Prosecutor's Office made an error in the transcription of a telephone tap between Diogo Lacerda Machado and Afonso Salema, consultant and administrator of Start Campus, respectively.

António Costa or António Costa e Silva? Public Ministry makes a mistake and confuses prime minister with minister of economy in the transcript of the wiretap.

The media is already "trashing" the Prosecutor for being incompetent, at the same time the Prosecutor says that the error doesn't have any impact in the whole investigation, adding that PM Costa continues a suspect in pressuring other government members.

For God sake man...

[CumbrianLefty]

"Sorry, but we made the sitting PM resign by mistake"