AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Cactus Jack]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

[Santander]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

No please let them underestimate her.

I LOVE being the underdog. It's why Trump continues to win.

[Seattle]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

You're right, but Sinema is no Bob Barley, and likely is a better candidate than Clinton.

[IceSpear]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

Would O'Donnell even have lost in Iowa or Arizona? She performed at generic R levels in Delaware. The only reason it was such a big deal was because she defeated the only Republican who COULD win the state in the primary.

[fluffypanther19]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

true very true, I think that Sinema def has the upper hand but they need to taker this seat and all seats seriously.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Trump broke Flake.

Yet another person who goes up against Trump and loses.

When will people realize that it's a useless gesture to up against Trump? If you're going to take a shot at the king you best not miss.

Scott Walker, Jeb!, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, the media, Bob Corker, Jeff Flake.... the list goes on and on. All victims of Trump's dominance.

Trump just wins. It's what he does.

[Cactus Jack]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

Would O'Donnell even have lost in Iowa or Arizona? She performed at generic R levels in Delaware. The only reason it was such a big deal was because she defeated the only Republican who COULD win the state in the primary.

Maybe not in 2010 (and that's a BIG maybe), but in 2018? Absolutely. What frustrates me about this line of argument is your apparent disregard for just how far to the left Arizona has shifted after 2016. I know that a person would have to live here to really appreciate it, but seriously, nobody seems to believe me when I tell them that Arizona is changing, and quickly. We're still in the red/Atlas blue, sure, but not nearly as much as you seem to think we are, and you don't seem to process at all that 2018 is most likely going to be at least a moderate wave year.

[Santander]

I spent a total of about 4 months in Scottsdale for my flight training. Most white people I knew were not politically far off from me. It would be very disappointing if things have changed.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Maybe not in 2010 (and that's a BIG maybe), but in 2018? Absolutely. What frustrates me about this line of argument is your apparent disregard for just how far to the left Arizona has shifted after 2016. I know that a person would have to live here to really appreciate it, but seriously, nobody seems to believe me when I tell them that Arizona is changing, and quickly. We're still in the red/Atlas blue, sure, but not nearly as much as you seem to think we are.

McCain won 54-42 in 2016.

Trump actually did BETTER among Latinos than Romney did.

Trump dropped with white voters, but if he even picks HALF of them back he easily wins Arizona in 2020 by  5-7 points.

[ajc0918]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

Would O'Donnell even have lost in Iowa or Arizona? She performed at generic R levels in Delaware. The only reason it was such a big deal was because she defeated the only Republican who COULD win the state in the primary.

Maybe not in 2010 (and that's a BIG maybe), but in 2018? Absolutely. What frustrates me about this line of argument is your apparent disregard for just how far to the left Arizona has shifted after 2016. I know that a person would have to live here to really appreciate it, but seriously, nobody seems to believe me when I tell them that Arizona is changing, and quickly. We're still in the red/Atlas blue, sure, but not nearly as much as you seem to think we are, and you don't seem to process at all that 2018 is most likely going to be at least a moderate wave year.

Can you please elaborate on this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Full text of Flake's speech in the Senate today: http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2017/10/24/sen-jeff-flake-senate-speech-full-text/794958001/

Read the whole thing.  It's magnificent.

[IceSpear]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

Would O'Donnell even have lost in Iowa or Arizona? She performed at generic R levels in Delaware. The only reason it was such a big deal was because she defeated the only Republican who COULD win the state in the primary.

Maybe not in 2010 (and that's a BIG maybe), but in 2018? Absolutely. What frustrates me about this line of argument is your apparent disregard for just how far to the left Arizona has shifted after 2016. I know that a person would have to live here to really appreciate it, but seriously, nobody seems to believe me when I tell them that Arizona is changing, and quickly. We're still in the red/Atlas blue, sure, but not nearly as much as you seem to think we are, and you don't seem to process at all that 2018 is most likely going to be at least a moderate wave year.

I don't doubt that the state is changing. That's why I think the race is a toss up, not lean R or higher. Dems seem to be spiking the football in this thread very prematurely though. It's a common trend.

[Yank2133]

Smart move by Flake. He is toast in the primary, so you might as well bow out with your head held high.

[Holmes]

[Cactus Jack]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

Would O'Donnell even have lost in Iowa or Arizona? She performed at generic R levels in Delaware. The only reason it was such a big deal was because she defeated the only Republican who COULD win the state in the primary.

Maybe not in 2010 (and that's a BIG maybe), but in 2018? Absolutely. What frustrates me about this line of argument is your apparent disregard for just how far to the left Arizona has shifted after 2016. I know that a person would have to live here to really appreciate it, but seriously, nobody seems to believe me when I tell them that Arizona is changing, and quickly. We're still in the red/Atlas blue, sure, but not nearly as much as you seem to think we are, and you don't seem to process at all that 2018 is most likely going to be at least a moderate wave year.

Can you please elaborate on this?

Demographics are shifting, Hispanic Arizonans are becoming politically active, our young voters are starting to care, and the great suburban exodus away from Trump has taken hold here, too. The fact is, nutty Arizona pols like Gosar, Brewer, Arpaio, and Ward (and nutty national pols like Trump) are losing influence because the modern metropolitan Arizonan just doesn't like the way they've taken the Republican Party.

I don't doubt that the state is changing. That's why I think the race is a toss up, not lean R or higher. Dems seem to be spiking the football in this thread very prematurely though. It's a common trend.

Fair enough. I can only share what I know of our demographics and trends, and what most Arizonans think of the likes of Ward.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What are the chances McCain endorses Sinema over Ward? Highly likely I imagine.

[The Other Castro]

I’d keep an eye on Jeff DeWit.

[mvd10]

This probably is good for the GOP. Flake wasn't going to beat Ward anyway (and even if he defeated Ward be probably would be too stained by the primary to beat Sinema) so this opens up a space for a more electable establishment candidate.

Anyway, Flake is a major FF and in a better world he would have been the POTUS. This guy was considered a potential conservative primary challenger to John McCain in 2004 btw. Oh, how things have changed .

[henster]

If McSally runs then Gallego would be a better candidate than Sinema, he is a former Marine. McSally will just run on her military background like Joni Ernst.

[Cactus Jack]

If McSally runs then Gallego would be a better candidate than Sinema, he is a former Marine. McSally will just run on her military background like Joni Ernst.

It's very likely going to be Gallego vs. McSally when McCain's seat opens up. I've heard tell that they're both waiting for it, and it makes sense. Both parties are going to need to run veterans for what may be the ultimate veteran's seat.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If McSally runs then Gallego would be a better candidate than Sinema, he is a former Marine. McSally will just run on her military background like Joni Ernst.

It's very likely going to be Gallego vs. McSally when McCain's seat opens up. I've heard tell that they're both waiting for it.

What if McSally loses reelection 2018?

[KingSweden]

I’d keep an eye on Jeff DeWit.

Yup.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

What are the chances McCain endorses Sinema over Ward? Highly likely I imagine.

That would be a huge endorsement for Ward tbh.

[henster]

If McSally runs then Gallego would be a better candidate than Sinema, he is a former Marine. McSally will just run on her military background like Joni Ernst.

It's very likely going to be Gallego vs. McSally when McCain's seat opens up. I've heard tell that they're both waiting for it.

I think McSally will jump in, maybe in the next few days.

[Cactus Jack]

If McSally runs then Gallego would be a better candidate than Sinema, he is a former Marine. McSally will just run on her military background like Joni Ernst.

It's very likely going to be Gallego vs. McSally when McCain's seat opens up. I've heard tell that they're both waiting for it.

What if McSally loses reelection 2018?

That's sort of the variable that the above scenario rides on, yeah. McSally is a fairly solid incumbent and will most likely face a flagrant carpetbagger come 2018, but her district isn't very friendly territory any more. If she loses, I honestly can't say who the AZGOP would run to replace McCain, because McSally is really the only one with a comparable profile.

Now, when it comes to McSally trying to challenge Ward, I highly doubt she goes for it, and it'd be a mistake if she did. She's a decent incumbent for Tucson and not a terrifically awful human being, but she isn't a terrifically charismatic human being, either. Also, Trump would never endorse her.