New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Gass3268]

Here is a really great spreadsheet with New Hamsphire data by town:

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1225494880098623489?s=20

[Gass3268]

I worry it could be painfully close.

Hopefully they know how to count better than Iowa.

[Gass3268]

Since there was discussion about the geographic breakdown of results earlier:

https://twitter.com/JaredGaffke/status/1226931846530899970


These numbers would normally suggest a tight race, except Bernie is getting 50% in the west and north, aka the Connecticut river towns. Very possible that if the race is close that Bernie loses the first via racking up the score in the second.

This could result in Bernie winning by a decent margin, but maybe not getting that large of a share of delegates.

[Gass3268]

Lol, Bloomberg got a vote in the Republican primary.

[Gass3268]

One less Democratic voter from 2016.

[Gass3268]

Map isn't going to be as clean as it was four years ago.

[Gass3268]

Weld would actually get delegates if this margin held (it won't).

[Gass3268]

NYT Results Page: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/11/us/elections/results-new-hampshire-primary.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=Navigation

The Needle (is back): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/11/us/elections/results-new-hampshire-live-forecast.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=Navigation

Is there a results page yet from the state? I'm trying to work on some maps that require the full results.

[Gass3268]

You all got it wrong:
Preliminary Exit Polls will be released at 5pm ET.

NH has different closing times around the state. Polls must open at 11 a.m. ET or earlier and cannot close before 7:00 p.m. https://ballotpedia.org/State_Poll_Opening_and_Closing_Times_(2020) IIRC, the earliest they open is 6:00 am outside of the 12:00 am precincts. The vast majority close at 7:00 pm, but a few stay open until 8:00 pm https://app.sos.nh.gov/Public/Reports.aspx

Yes, but the networks will start provding some data points from the exit poll starting at 5 PM.

[Gass3268]

What candidates will win a town, township, or city? We already have Klobuchar and Bloomberg. Sanders and Buttigieg feel like locks. Does Warren and/or Biden win one? Do we get an dark horse winner like Bennet, Gabbard, or Yang?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1227258274854195200?s=20

[Gass3268]

Biden is skipping out on his election party tonight. Going to a kickoff event in South Carolina instead.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1227265963311144961?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1227217429195100167?s=20

[Gass3268]

Turnout approaching 35% already in Burlington


Very good for sanders. That’s home turf

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure there isn't a Burlington, NH.

[Gass3268]

Hearing turnout is "slow but steady" in Manchester so far.

17,924 was the 2016 Manchester turnout on the Dem side.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1227258274854195200?s=20

Smdh... She should've flipped a coin instead....

The Iowa way!

[Gass3268]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BradWGME/status/1227301638966300672

"Early reports of high turnout in Coastal New Hampshire suggest victory for Buttigieg and/or Klobuchar"

Adam did I do it right?

[Gass3268]

Also something I just realized:  "COASTAL New Hampshire"?

New Hampshire only has like twenty miles of coast.  

It is called The SEACOST, not coastal New Hampshire. Get it right, people! Remember, this is Atlas!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seacoast_Region_(New_Hampshire)

You would think a reporter from Maine would know the correct term.

[Gass3268]

Only 11% 18-29 in the first wave of polling.

https://twitter.com/actoraaronbooth/status/1227356748454952961?s=21

[Gass3268]

Folks shouldn't forget about monstrosity this when it comes to the youth vote:

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1227247495065096193?s=20

[Gass3268]

Watching FOX NEWS now:

They have Martha MacCallum, Bret Baier, Brit Hume and Chris Wallace. Decent people.

I'm so relieved that they don't have hyperventilating Megyn Kelly anymore.

Wallace says if Biden finishes 5th he's done. I agree with him.

Wallace is decent, Baier can be, rest not so much.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1227381819236061185?s=20

[Gass3268]

Interesting difference about how folks in Iowa love to tell people who they are voting for, while in New Hampshire they are more private. Difference between caucuses and primaries.

[Gass3268]

African American New Hampshire voter for Amy. Made his decision walking into the polling center.

[Gass3268]

Sanders in third place in Laconia.