Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Good job Biden, you idiot.

what

Putin never did anything like this when Trump was president. They both had respect for each other.

He just made the POTUS embarrassing himself in front of the entire world by siding with an authoritarian leader over his own Intel Service. Nice try.

LMAO, Who cares _{(aside from TDS)}? Not Putin. He's pragmatic.

Nord Stream 2 is kinda like BIF/BBB (?) for Biden. Putin got nothing from Trump. Biden folded fairly fast.



Re: Poland-Belarus
An interesting consequence is that Poland probably gets a break from pissing off EU. It will be much harder to punish Poland, when Poland are holding back a tons of desperate poor brown people wanting to search asyl in rich EU.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1458609384355991560

The Conservatives of the World, UNITE!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Lukashenko: "I’ll Cut Off Europe’s Natural Gas Supply. Therefore, I would recommend that the Polish leadership, Lithuanians, and other headless people think before speaking"

https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-dictator-ups-ante-poland-130505193.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Russia (Gazprom) owns the pipeline.

This is nothing like April
https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1458848895891615748?s=20

Putin is gonna annex [parts of] Ukraine, while Joe is sleeping busy with inflation/supplies 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Some 3D chess here, but if I'm Poland I make a formal request from the EU for a small military deployment in light of actions on our border from Belarus:

Macron wants an EU-wide strengthening of European defense post-Australians killing the submarine defense contract and AUKUS completely reformatting the Indo-Pacific/U.S. defense relationships. The Eastern Europeans don't buy that the EU are serious on defense. This would serve as a put up or shut up question to Western and Central Europe. If a real deployment is accepted and western/central states' troops are deployed, this shows the Russians the Europeans are serious about standing up for their eastern members which is a positive for all of them. If they punt or offer only something token that does nothing, the Poles and other vulnerable Eastern European states will know the EU is nothing geopolitically and to only focus on their NATO (read: American) relationship.

To do what exactly? You want French military to fight illegal immigrants?

Moreover, Poland gov doesn't want to look weak begging for help.

Moreover, Poland doesn't even allow journalist (and hum. aid worker) to come to the border (state of emergency). All the info we get comes from The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus/Poland. Why? I guess, because of that:


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/world/middleeast/migrants-belarus-border-abuse.html
Iraqi migrants say they face beatings on both sides of the Belarusian border.

SULAIMANIYA, Iraq — Before the Belarus police pushed Hajar, 37, across the border into Lithuania this week, they punched him in the head, he said. But that was just the start of his ordeal.

On the Lithuanian side, the police called for a group of commandos who he said took him and his friends away and started hitting them with sticks and plastic cables and shocking them with stun guns. In a video call from Minsk, he pulled up his shirt to show deep bruises on his side and back.

“They said ‘You don’t have the right to come here to our country,’” he said, speaking in Kurdish through an interpreter. “They said ‘You make our country dirty.’”

It happened in Lithuania, but it, perhaps, even worse in Poland. I guess, it's another reason, they don't want French military observing it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Some 3D chess here, but if I'm Poland I make a formal request from the EU for a small military deployment in light of actions on our border from Belarus:

Macron wants an EU-wide strengthening of European defense post-Australians killing the submarine defense contract and AUKUS completely reformatting the Indo-Pacific/U.S. defense relationships. The Eastern Europeans don't buy that the EU are serious on defense. This would serve as a put up or shut up question to Western and Central Europe. If a real deployment is accepted and western/central states' troops are deployed, this shows the Russians the Europeans are serious about standing up for their eastern members which is a positive for all of them. If they punt or offer only something token that does nothing, the Poles and other vulnerable Eastern European states will know the EU is nothing geopolitically and to only focus on their NATO (read: American) relationship.

To do what exactly? You want French military to fight illegal immigrants?

Broader security while getting continental buy-in.

Moreover, Poland gov doesn't want to look weak begging for help.

It's not weakness inasmuch of they're there for security if Russia's about to launch a broader conflict on Ukrainian soil.

Poland doesn't have any problem with "security".

Poland-Belarus standoff has nothing to do with Russia's possible (extremely unlikely, but let's pretend it is possible) attack on Ukraine. I don't know, why the thread includes both.


People here seem to think, that there is a military conflict between Poland and Belarus. There isn't. Belarus basically does the job as coyotes on Mexican border. Does US use tear gas against illegals? Well, Poland does (see the video) and therefore doesn't want to have there anyone, nor journalists, human aid workers or French army.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Putin's got the Nord Stream 2 from pro-Russia Joe Biden. I doubt, Putin would risk it now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Why would they invade when winter is around the corner?

solid point, war in winter is hard (even in 2021), but it's also not a good time for our soft brothers in Europe to be forced to give up their cheap Russian gas.  Perhaps Putin thinks that Dieter and Juliette would rather another of slice of Ukraine go to Russia than be chilly for a month.

Most of "cheap Russian gas" goes through Ukraine. Of course, Ukraine would stop it, if they are attacked. In fact, one of the Ukraine's argument against NS2 is... that it allows Russia to attack Ukraine, while keeping sending gas to EU 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Lukashenko: "I’ll Cut Off Europe’s Natural Gas Supply. Therefore, I would recommend that the Polish leadership, Lithuanians, and other headless people think before speaking"

https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-dictator-ups-ante-poland-130505193.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Russia (Gazprom) owns the pipeline.

https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/1459576833209470981

"Of course, in theory, Lukashenko as president of a transit country could order our (gas) supplies to be cut to Europe. But this would mean a breach of our gas transit contract and I hope this will not happen," Putin added.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

BBC:

https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1459303875010338819

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1460348215732183043

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

To the surprise of absolutely no one, the Estonian FM has come out and said Lukashenka demanded lifting of sanctions and EU recognition of himself as the legitimate president of Belarus in exchange for 'ending' the crisis during the meeting with Merkel.

He wants to make an Erdogan, yes.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview.

Russia’s large-scale Zapad 21 military exercise earlier this year proved, for instance, that they can drop upwards of 3,500 airborne and special operations troops at once, he said.

The attack Russia is preparing, said Budanov, would be far more devastating than anything before seen in the conflict that began in 2014 that has seen some 14,000 Ukrainians killed.

https://twitter.com/NavyTimes/status/1462209682546827264?s=20

If Russia was about to attack in Jan/Feb, why would they "announce" it 3-4 months in advance? It's a Grans Show. Putin wants to send the message, not to start a war.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1466044586774740992?s=21
Definitely happening now. I’ll put good money on a smash and grab before Boxing Day

So if Russia will place a nuclear missiles on Cuba, this guy will say to USA that  they "have no right to a "sphere of influence" to control their neighbors". What a clown.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Now an invasion still might be worth it if 1) you think a West-aligned Ukraine is a truly existential threat to Russian security,...

That's the thing though, its not is it. And they're not really all that "West-aligned" in any event.

You have to look at this from the point of view of the Kremlin leadership and whatever their goals are if you wish to understand Russian decisionmaking. You can't look at it from your own personal point of view and hope to understand what is going to happen, even if you think the Russians are wrongheaded.

Russians post-Soviet era have the impression of once they were defeated, NATO is yet still trying to practice encirclement. Yeltsin even complained about NATO moving eastward. NATO is from the viewpoint of the Russians an existential threat because NATO is first and foremost an anti-Russian defense conglomeration. There's no civilian purpose to NATO's existence. So if Ukraine joins NATO, then that's another border point Russia has to defend against. It's why North Korea will probably never just be allowed to join with South Korea and maybe even why the state continues to exist: the Chinese are not going to accept a border with a U.S. ally, North Korea's a buffer. Right now in Donbass the Russians have a de facto buffer.

Or, why US never have accepted Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1468657675097579522

Joe Biden makes diplomatic concession to Russia with Nato talks plan
US president wants allies to discuss Moscow’s ‘concerns’ in attempt to prevent invasion of Ukraine

Joe Biden has made a significant diplomatic concession to Moscow designed to prevent an invasion of Ukraine, signalling he wants to convene meetings between Nato allies and Russia to discuss Vladimir Putin’s grievances with the transatlantic security pact.

Speaking on Wednesday, a day after he held a bilateral call with Russia’s leader, the US president said he hoped to announce high-level talks by Friday “to discuss the future of Russia’s concerns relative to Nato writ large”.

The talks would explore “whether or not we can work out any accommodation as it relates to bringing down the temperature along the eastern front”, Biden added.

The US president said he hoped the participants would include not just Washington and Moscow but also “at least four of our major Nato allies”, although he declined to name the specific countries.

Moscow wants Nato to commit to halting any eastward expansion and to refrain from deploying troops and equipment that could be used to attack Russia from neighbouring countries.

But Biden’s reference to finding a potential “accommodation” with Moscow in eastern Europe will startle many eastern Nato members and US allies, who fear Putin is using the threat of military force to win concessions on the US security presence in Europe.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/GarlandNixon/status/1468041140649742341

Sir Woodbury 🤝 Twitter Tankies

One struggle

Anyway, Volodymyr Zelensky is Jewish, which makes these attempts to turn Ukraine into Nazi Germany 2.0 even more asinine

And the leader of Proud Boys is Black, you're saying?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1471056194412457996

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Make West accept that [Putin's] Russia cannot exist without Ukraine [in its orbit]. By all means necessary.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1473275395466162176?t=2xL_Dqq8t2wPKuB6c...

Russia is a vast land, yet there is nowhere to retreat – Moscow is behind us!

Велика Россия, а отступать некуда — позади Москва!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.ft.com/content/5e5e9624-b7d7-4c11-bc12-4078a6d293bb
US plans talks with Russia to find diplomatic route to ease Ukraine tensions
Putin warns that Moscow is ready to use ‘military-technical measures’ to counter ‘hostile’ Nato

The US expects to start talks with Russia in January over Moscow’s demands for sweeping European security guarantees, in a bid to find a diplomatic route to ease tensions over Ukraine.

Russia has deployed about 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine, sparking western fears of a possible invasion. Moscow has demanded that Nato and the US cut their presence in eastern Europe and President Vladimir Putin warned on Tuesday that Russia was prepared to use its military against what he called a growing threat from Nato.

Washington plans to open bilateral talks with Moscow on the security proposals next month, Karen Donfried, US assistant secretary of state, said on Tuesday, despite widespread alarm among EU and Nato member states that many of the demands are impossible and would weaken the western military alliance.

“We are prepared to discuss those proposals that Russia put on the table. There are some things that we are prepared to work on, and that we do believe there is merit in having a discussion,” Donfried told reporters. “There are other things in those documents that the Russians know will be unacceptable.”

Donfried said the date of talks would be agreed with Moscow, but that they would run alongside talks between Russia and Nato and inside the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Nato member states are meeting on Tuesday to discuss possible formats for talks with Russia, she said, and the OSCE had also begun preparations.

“Let me be clear: there will be no talks on European security without Europe,” she added, in a nod to concerns among some eastern European states that Washington and Moscow could discuss their security over their heads. “The key here is alliance unity and alliance cohesion.”

Putin told a group of senior military officers on Tuesday that the Kremlin was “seriously concerned” about Nato deployments near the country’s borders and the possibility of it having hypersonic weapons in Ukraine that could strike Moscow in less than 10 minutes.

“If our western colleagues continue this clearly aggressive stance, we will take appropriate military-technical measures in response and react harshly to hostile steps,” Putin said, according to state newswire RIA Novosti. “And I want to stress that we are within our rights to do what is required to ensure Russia’s security and sovereignty.”

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1473322559190048772

Gas price is going up 30% to $2,150 per 1000 cubic meter. 15 times more than US pays...

Winter is coming! Can't help Ukraine, if you has been frozen to death.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden gets it!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/19/takeaways-biden-news-conference/
5 takeaways from the Biden news conference

2. Playing down a ‘minor incursion’ by Russia into Ukraine?

Among the Biden comments that will probably be chewed over extensively was one suggesting that a smaller incursion by Russia into Ukraine might not merit the same response.

The comments were quickly clarified by the White House, which offered a significantly different message.

“I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades, and it depends on what it does,” Biden said. “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, etcetera.”

He added: “But if they actually do what they’re capable of doing, with the force amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine. And our allies and partners are ready to impose severe cost and significant harm on Russia and the Russian economy.”

That is logical, but it’s one thing for it to be the approach, and it’s another to state it publicly. It seemed to suggest that maybe Russia could go into Ukraine without much in the way of a response, as long as it wasn’t a fuller invasion. It wasn’t long ago the Russia annexed Crimea; would something like that be considered a “minor incursion”?

In situations such as these, you generally avoid saying what might be acceptable — or more acceptable — even if you don’t want to commit to specific retaliatory action.

Biden reiterated later, “It depends on what [Vladimir Putin] does.” He also notably pointed to the negative impact severe sanctions on Russia could have on the West and suggested it would be harder to have a unified NATO response with a more minor Russian effort.

Shortly after the news conference, though, the White House put out a statement indicating a harder line and assuring the kind of unified response that Biden suggested he couldn’t guarantee.

“President Biden has been clear with the Russian president: If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe and united response from the United States and our allies,” press secretary Jen Psaki said.

Thank you, Pr. Biden!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Great Patriots think alike.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1483612693827182596

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1487534551513587717

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: cancelling NS2