Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Fed-Ex and UPS are suspending shipments to Russia:

"51 min ago

UPS, FedEx Halt Shipments Into Russia

By Paul Ziobro

FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc. have suspended shipments into Russia amid the country's invasion of Ukraine.

The U.S.-based shipping giants had earlier cut off shipments to and from Ukraine and were preparing contingency plans for their Russian operations. Now, both have temporarily stopped delivering shipments bound for Russia.

UPS said that packages en route to Russia and Ukraine will be returned free of charge to the sender if possible.

"Our focus is on the safety of our people, providing continued service and minimizing disruption to our customers," UPS said in a service alert on its website. "UPS continues to closely monitor the situation and will re-establish service as soon as it is practical and safe to do so."

FedEx issued a similar service alert on its website. “We are closely monitoring the situation and have contingency plans in place,” FedEx said.

FEDEX CORP.FDX(U.S.: NYSE)
$220.72 USD
4.80
2.22%
▲
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC. CL BUPS(U.S.: NYSE)
$209.95 USD
2.76
1.33%
▲
1 hour ago

"

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/ups-fedex-halt-shipments-into-russia-gMS7VIk7WuZXVnVxh8Ju

FedEx and UPS now halting all business in Russia after initially suspending deliveries.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war/after-suspending-ukraine-deliveries-ups-and-fedex-halt-business-in-russia

[NOVA Green]

Humanitarian situation worsening in Ukraine with hospitals on the verge of running out of oxygen per New York Times:

"The World Health Organization warned Sunday that many Ukrainian hospitals were running dangerously low on oxygen supplies.

In a statement, the organization said that the majority of hospitals across the country could exhaust their oxygen reserves within the next day, and that some had already run out.

“The oxygen supply situation is nearing a very dangerous point in Ukraine,” it said. “This puts thousands of lives at risk.”

Oxygen supplies are needed to treat a range of patients, including the roughly 1,700 people being treated in Ukraine now for Covid-19, the W.H.O. said.
..."


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war/ukraine-hospitals-medical-oxygen

[NOVA Green]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-9

Key Takeaways

• Russia has failed to encircle and isolate Kyiv with mechanized and airborne attacks as it had clearly planned to do. Russian forces are now engaging in more straightforward mechanized drives into Kyiv along a narrow front on the west bank of the Dnipro River and on a broad front to the northeast.
• Russian forces temporarily abandoned efforts to seize Chernihiv and Kharkiv to the northeast and east of Kyiv and are bypassing those cities to continue their drive on Kyiv. Failed Russian attacks against both cities were poorly designed and executed and encountered more determined and effective resistance than Russia likely expected.
• Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast.
• Russian forces in eastern Ukraine remain focused on pinning the large concentration of Ukrainian forces arrayed along the former line of contact in the east, likely to prevent them from interfering with Russian drives on Kyiv and to facilitate their encirclement and destruction.
• Ukrainian forces retook the critical city of Kherson and Russian forces halted their drive on Odessa. Some Russian troops remain west of the Dnipro River and are advancing on Mykolaiv, but the main axes of advance have shifted to the north and east toward Zaporizhie and Mariupol respectively.
• Russian forces have taken the critical city of Berdyansk from the west, threatening to encircle Mariupol with Russian forces in Donbas attacking Mariupol from the east, likely to pin defenders in the city.
• Russian troops are facing growing morale and logistics issues, predictable consequences of the poor planning, coordination, and execution of attacks along Ukraine’s northern border.
  
• The United States, Canada, and European allies removed select Russian banks from the SWIFT global financial network and agreed to additional measures that could significantly increase economic pressure on Russia.
• The United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom facilitated a significant expansion of NATO countries’ lethal aid shipments to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began.
• NATO countries began contributing forces to NATO Response Force (NRF) operations in Eastern Europe, reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank.
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is set to displace millions of Ukrainians internally and throughout eastern Europe; at least 150,000 Ukrainians have fled the country as of February 26 as urban fighting intensifies.
• Kremlin censors increased crackdowns on independent media amid growing Russian opposition to the war.

Thanks for sharing this and bumping for those who might have missed the 2/26/22 update as we look at today's reported developments.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

It sounds like these types of actions are actually being performed by Polish Border guards and are being actively looked at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/#link-26HKARWXPJGFRBRUGGX7UFJ5NQ

[NOVA Green]

I'm in Washington DC for a law school event right now. Please let me know when the Defcon level reaches 1 so I know when to leave the city. kthx

Will do... you'll be the first I notify.   

[NOVA Green]

"Oligarchs Against the War" Movement Expands per The Guardian:

(More in this article so please click the free link at the bottom to view all content).

"
Two top Russian billionaires speak out against invasion of Ukraine

Oleg Deripaska and Ukrainian-born Mikhail Fridman call for peace, as activities come under threat from sanctions

"Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska have become two of the country’s first leading businesspeople to speak out against Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Fridman, who is one of Russia’s richest men, controls private equity firm LetterOne and was a founder of Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest private bank. In a letter to his employees he called for an end to the “bloodshed”.

Ukrainian-born Fridman sent an email to staff at LetterOne, first reported by the Financial Times, in which he wrote “war can never be the answer”.

Describing his Ukrainian roots in Lviv, where his parents still live, he wrote: “I have also spent much of my life as a citizen of Russia, building and growing businesses. I am deeply attached to Ukrainian and Russian peoples and see the current conflict as a tragedy for them both.”

Another Russian billionaire, Oleg Deripaska, called for peace talks to begin “as fast as possible” in a post on the messaging app Telegram.

“Peace is very important,” wrote Deripaska, who founded Russian aluminium giant Rusal, in which he still owns a stake through shares in its London-listed parent company EN+ Group.

Deripaska, who said as recently as 21 February there would not be a war in Ukraine, has been on the US sanctions list since 2018 over his alleged links to the Russian government, which he has taken legal action to challenge.

..."





https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/two-top-russian-billionaires-speak-out-against-invasion-of-ukraine

[NOVA Green]

New York Times update from 17 minutes ago: (Click on link for visuals)

"Satellite images show large unit of Russian troops near Kyiv.

New satellite images from Sunday show Russian ground forces getting closer to Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. A long convoy is stretched out over more than three miles of road, consisting of hundreds of vehicles according to Maxar Technologies, which released the images. Videos posted to Twitter on Sunday also show a large convoy, possibly the same one as in the satellite images.

The forces include infantry fighting and supply vehicles around 40 miles northwest of Kyiv. They are on a road that leads to the area of fierce fighting that was captured in a dramatic video Saturday."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war/satellite-images-show-large-unit-of-russian-troops-near-kyiv

[NOVA Green]

CNN update from Kharkiv as of ~ 5 minutes ago (Includes video footage):

(I'm assuming this is possibly parts of some of the other footage we have seen from Kharkiv earlier today?)

"Videos show Ukrainian forces repel Russian advance towards possible strategic airfield in northeast Kharkiv


From CNN's Paul P. Murphy, Katie Polglase, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Tim Lister and Josh Pennington

Videos uploaded to social media are giving a rare view of clashes between Russian and Ukrainian military forces on the streets of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine.

....

One sequence of videos uploaded to social media show an attempt by a Russian unit to advance towards an important airfield and arms factory in the northeast of Kharkiv. The airfield at the Kharkiv State Aircraft Manufacturing Company is small — just a single runway — but might be a useful bridgehead for the Russians.

CNN has geolocated and verified the authenticity of the videos.

The first video, taken by a resident, shows a convoy of Russian troops surrounding military vehicles, creeping along a roadway that ends near the airfield.

"There are two [military vehicles] as far as I can see," someone says in the video. "A third one is crawling through with infantry who are wielding automatic rifles."
Suddenly, gunfire is heard and seen.

A Russian soldier is seen quickly kneeling and firing a shoulder-fired rocket towards the area where the gunfire appears to be coming from.

A second video, taken after the firefight, shows the military vehicles driving in reverse in an apparent retreat. The Russian troops are seen huddled behind their vehicles.

...

Their efforts to retreat appear to have been stopped by another attack. A convoy of vehicles — the same type — is seen on fire in another video.

...

"

[NOVA Green]

Does Ukraine have drones? Wondering if us Americans could give them some.

Yes--- Turkish supplied Anti-Tank drones. Here is an example of how they are being used from a post I made a few hours ago:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8500298#msg8500298

[NOVA Green]

Does Ukraine have drones? Wondering if us Americans could give them some.

Iirc they have been using Turkish donated drones.

And if I'm not mistaken just a week or two back the Ukrainian Defense Minister signed a deal with Turkey to get more.

Now key question would be, assuming they haven't already shipped, would be how to get them to Ukraine quickly where they might well be needed (assuming that Ukraine can still maintain the command and control needed to get them up and running).

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/samueloakford/status/1498020453088043010?t=w6S_KqNFB1aoC7wCx...

Wow--- amazed that this would actually be published by a state run media outlet.

[NOVA Green]

New York Times continues to deliver....

This was posted ~3-4 minutes ago

"Videos show Russian losses on outskirts of Kyiv.

After intense street battles on Sunday, footage verified by The Times showed the charred remains of Russian military vehicles on the outskirts of Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.

Other video show Russian vehicles driving through the small city of Bucha, surrounded by sounds of heavy fighting, and  Russian troops firing at an Afghanistan War memorial of a military vehicle —  which they seem to have mistaken for Ukrainian forces.

The convoy of destroyed vehicles was filmed by a Ukrainian man along a road that leads from Bucha to Irpin, which is the next town en route to Kyiv.

A photo shared earlier in the day shows a large plume of smoke rising from the approximate location of a bridge connecting the two cities — an indication that yet another bridge may have been destroyed by Ukrainian forces to stop the Russian advance."


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war/videos-show-russian-losses-on-outskirts-of-kyiv

[NOVA Green]

That TASS release linked in the tweet doesn't provide numbers, and it claims Russian losses are less than Ukrainian losses. Anyone know what Russian source the twitter guy saw the 4,300 figure in?

The Twitter poster is now saying the numbers have been removed.

"These figures have now been removed from the article. Unclear whats going on (e.g. inadvertent publication, hack). The article where these appeared (at the bottom of the page) was linked to on the front page of the..."

[NOVA Green]

That TASS release linked in the tweet doesn't provide numbers, and it claims Russian losses are less than Ukrainian losses. Anyone know what Russian source the twitter guy saw the 4,300 figure in?

The Twitter poster is now saying the numbers have been removed.

"These figures have now been removed from the article. Unclear whats going on (e.g. inadvertent publication, hack). The article where these appeared (at the bottom of the page) was linked to on the front page of the..."

It also looks like that might have been an Anonymous hack using official Russian MOD numbers (Sorry haven't spent much time playing around with embedding Tweets).

https://twitter.com/ChuprynaDmytro/status/1498022323424796683?s=20&t=vok5QFJ...

"Reportedly Tass website was hacked by Anonymous group and they published official data from Ukraine Ministry of Defense" Dmytro Chupryna

[NOVA Green]

New UN Vote upcoming calling for a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine:

"5 min ago

"U.S., Allies Consider New United Nations Vote Targeting Russia

By William Mauldin

The U.S. and its allies are seeking to bring a vote to the United Nations General Assembly calling on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, according to Western diplomats, after Russia vetoed a similar resolution at the U.N. Security Council.

The Security Council, presided over by Russia this month, has scheduled a meeting for Sunday at 3 p.m. There, some council members are expected to press for an emergency special session of the General Assembly beginning Monday. Russia wouldn't be able to veto the emergency session because the vote would be procedural, according to the diplomats.

Unlike at the Security Council, resolutions that come before the members of the General Assembly aren't binding. Still, a successful vote can send a clear international message, and Russia wouldn't be able to veto a resolution at the General Assembly.

....

"



https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26

Looks like there will be an emergency session of the UN General Assembly meeting on Ukraine per New York Times update from ~20 minutes ago.

"The UN Security Council adopted a resolution to call for an emergency session of the General Assembly which will convene in the next 24 hours. It is the first time such a session has been called in decades, said U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, because “This is not an ordinary moment. We need to take extraordinary action to meet this threat to our international system and to do everything we can to help Ukraine and its people.” "

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war

[NOVA Green]

Kharkiv Kupyansk has surrendered per Washington Post:

"Northeastern Ukrainian city surrenders under threat of bombardment, mayor says

By Isabelle Khurshudyan3:02 p.m.

KHARKIV, Ukraine — At 7:30 a.m. Sunday, the commander of the Russian battalion offered the mayor of the northeastern Ukrainian town an ultimatum: Surrender or face a bombardment.

In a video message posted on the Kupyansk City Council’s Facebook page, Mayor Gennady Matsegora said he chose to surrender and that the town is now under Russian control.

Kupyansk, which has a population of about 28,000, is about 70 miles southeast of Kharkiv, where a Russian advance on the city was rebuffed Sunday afternoon, according to the governor.

Matsegora said the Russians assured him that schools, hospitals and grocery stores would be open Monday. He claimed that Ukrainian military agencies had left the town to fend for itself.

“We must come together and get back to normal life,” Matsegora said in the video. “You can come out of the basements and the bunkers.” "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/#link-IWSSPIKQJRE4VIXYS7ZOATEJNY

[NOVA Green]

The only way Turkey closes the Bosphorus would be if they feel Russia is too weak/preoccupied to force the strait to reopen:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498038656875081740?s=20&t=p7zLIjGZr...

Turkey is a NATO member however, so how exactly would Russia try to force the strait to reopen without triggering a broader conflict?

[NOVA Green]

Financial impacts for Russia continue to mount...

Norway is freezing its assets in Russia and planning from divesting from their market per New York Times:

(Longer article on link)

"Norway’s sovereign wealth fund plans to divest from the Russian market.

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is freezing its assets in Russia and plans to divest from the Russian market, a spokeswoman for the fund said Sunday.

The $1.3 trillion fund — the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund — held 27 billion kroner, equivalent to roughly $3 billion, in assets in Russia at the end of 2021. Its Russian investments equaled 0.2 percent of the fund.

The operator of the fund, Norges Bank Investment Management, will neither buy nor sell shares in Russian assets, according to Line Aaltvedt, the fund’s spokeswoman. The fund will work with the Ministry of Finance to prepare a plan to divest from the Russian market. No timeline for the divestment was given.

...."



https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-russia

[NOVA Green]

Movement to boycott Russian products in the US gains increased traction among political figures...

Russian Vodka in particular being targeted which now includes Republican Governors of New Hampshire and Ohio, aside from Abbot's "request" in Texas...

"Azi Paybarah
Feb. 26, 2022, 6:33 p.m. ET5 minutes ago
5 minutes ago
Azi Paybarah

Putin’s critics call for boycotts of Russian vodka.

"Vodka, a drink that was popularized in the West by James Bond and that has long been one of Russia’s most visible exports, is now the target of international anger over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In New Hampshire, where liquor and wine are sold through state-run stores, Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, announced on Saturday the removal of “Russian-made and Russian-branded spirits from our liquor and wine outlets until further notice.” In Ohio, where the state contracts with private businesses to sell liquor, Gov. Mike DeWine, also a Republican, announced a halt to state purchases and sales of Russian Standard Vodka."



https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/26/world/ukraine-russia-war

Virginia is now also boycotting Russian Vodka & alcohol.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/#link-KQMHZ7S7P5CCRG4SJ66FKEPDM4

[NOVA Green]

I'm certain the Ukrainians had the coordinates of this column quite quickly. People are claiming on twitter it was already targeted/destroyed:

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1498028744807694338?s=20&t=7DAArj_t...

I mean, it does look similar, with vehicles tightly packed together in two lines in a lightly forested area:

https://twitter.com/KiarKini/status/1498039949140049925?s=20&t=7DAArj_t5b1ag...

Sounds likely this is the same convoy which I posted some reported about earlier today??

[NOVA Green]

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

Sunday morning, 8:00 AM.

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

We've had like 60 pages in the last day, so I'd say Saturday or Sunday

These are both looking unlikely now. Posting in this thread slowed down a lot, not sure why.

I've been trying my best to spread the Gospel today!

Tomorrow I'll be a lot slower since I need to go onsite for work, so won't be able to post until I get home.

[NOVA Green]

Turns out that big explosion may not have actually been from today.
<tweet snip>

More evidence the video is days old:
https://twitter.com/aleksanderrr_/status/1498057583650869251?s=20&t=uC6bTA-4...

Gotta love geo-location gurus shooting down fake news! 

[NOVA Green]

Haven't seen this posted yet, but looks like many of the reserve Russian military mechanized units are inoperable... per CNN as of some ~20-30 minutes back.



"CNN team observes inoperable Russian vehicles

A CNN team south of Belgorod, Russia, near the Ukrainian border has observed Russian vehicles that are broken down or inoperable, as US and Western officials say that a portion of the Russian forces amassed on the border with Ukraine were unusable.

The team has seen several broken-down armored personnel carriers, an armored vehicle being towed, a howitzer that was being repaired on the side of the road when its track had come off, and more.

On the eve of the invasion, US officials said approximately 80% of Russia’s military force amassed on Ukraine’s borders was in forward positions.

A US official said the US believes a portion of the remaining force was inoperable. At the same time, a European official told CNN Russia’s fictional pullback in the days before the invasion had included removing broken vehicles from the field.

A senior defense official said Sunday morning that Russia still has a significant capacity of forces that have not yet been deployed into Ukraine. "






https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-27-22/h_421bd320351d78d3577bf40161a88bd9

[NOVA Green]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Wall Street Journal update as of 12 minutes ago--- looks like Russia will be going into an immediate recession:

"Ruble's Plunge Is Expected to Drive Surge in Russian Inflation

The ruble was quoted at 110 to 120 per dollar by Russian banks on Sunday. It had traded at 75 before Russia's invasion of Ukraine and 83 on Friday. That plunge in the currency's value of 30% to 40% would add about 5 percentage points to inflation, said Sergey Alekashenko, who was a senior Russian central-bank official in the late 1990s and now lives in the U.S.

Inflation had already climbed to 8.7% in January, more than double the central bank’s 4% target. Mr. Alekashenko added inflation could rise even more if disruptions to the payments system reduce the supply of goods.

Earlier this month, Russia’s central bank raised its key interest rate a full percentage point to 9.5% to combat inflation. The bank, which Western economists generally see as committed to controlling inflation, is likely to raise rates significantly further, pushing Russia into recession."



https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/ruble-s-plunge-is-expected-to-drive-sharp-rise-in-russian-inflation-GMz1Z1wtWswDAPme44GV

[NOVA Green]

If this happens, I can only assume protests will break out again in Belarus. Perhaps this will be the last decision that Minsk makes under current management.


https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

Amazing.  Putin's found soldiers who want to be in Ukraine even less than the Russians.

Insert Twitter footage of drunk Belarusian soldiers plying their Russian allied soldiers with Vodka and convincing them not to go to war against Ukraine and stay in Belarus instead for another Night or Two....