Yeah, the Dem is Goroff, not Gershon. Gershon lost general in 2018 and did not advance this year.
I grew up in this district, and it's a hard nut to crack. A lot going on and it's somewhat representative of a lot of trends in America. Almost no one who grows up there stays there (I left), those who do are in all likelihood not doing well because there aren't great jobs to be found (you move to NYC or Boston for real opportunities) and those folks can be Trumpy for that reason (aggrieved WWC); those who live there permanently as retirees are often SUPER rich creating a crazy class stratification/income inequality situation that is insane when observing the juxtaposition of houses and streets from one community to the next; and those uber rich people often depend on exploited undocumented labor to perform essential tasks -- and those folks are the target of the WWC's ire.
In total, a lot going on and you can see why Trump still holds up OK here. I don't know how you go from the very liberal Tim Bishop to Lee Zeldin though and it all comes down to how much the swingy, middle class vote here breaks against Trump. I figure it's enough to make this a 50/50 race.
Very interesting, thanks for sharing your experience! That is the sort of detailed info I love on Atlas, rather than the recent spate of poll trolling.
Would you say the same dynamics are at play in neighbouring NY-2?
Poll
