Ireland 2009

[minionofmidas]

Pity it has to be the ALDE. Why not the EPP-ED?

Because that's Fine Gael (IIRC).

[Verily]

Pity it has to be the ALDE. Why not the EPP-ED?

Because that's Fine Gael (IIRC).

They could have joined ED. Fine Gael is in the EPP. Although I guess that opens up rivalries with the British Conservatives.

[minionofmidas]

Pity it has to be the ALDE. Why not the EPP-ED?

Because that's Fine Gael (IIRC).

They could have joined ED. Fine Gael is in the EPP. Although I guess that opens up rivalries with the British Conservatives.

Ah. Yeah, I suppose their party is also terra prohibita.

[Јas]

Today's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll:

Fine Gael 30 (-3)
Fianna Fáil 23 (-5)
Labour 22 (+8)
Greens 6 (-2)
Sinn Féin 11 (+2)
Ind/Other 8 (-)

The numbers are in the same territory as the MB/INS and TNS/MRBI within the last 2 weeks.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hilarious.

[Јas]

The Greens are crazy to not bring down the government at this point. Just doing so would be worth a big bump in their approval ratings, if not necessarily support.

As it happens, a motion to pull out of Government is on the agenda at the Green Party conference today - put forward by the Dublin Mid-West (that of Paul Gogarty - see above). Not expected to get anywhere, but the presence of the motion reflects the discomfort of many members with the coalition.

[Kevinstat]

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Full Irish Times Story

I went one paragraph over "fair share" (if that limit even exists in Ireland), but I doubt the Irish Times will sue.

[Јas]

Following the defeat of Lisbon I, the Government commissioned a study to try and learn where they went wrong from a group of academics. I've just noticed that the final report ('Attitudes and Behaviour in the Referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon') is now available online. Anyone interested can take a look at it here.

The following is the conclusion to the Executive Summary:

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[Tender Branson]

New Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll:

Fine Gael: 26%
Fianna Fail: 23%
Labour Party: 18%
Sinn Fein: 5%
Independents: 4%
Greens: 3%
Others/Undecided: 21%

Lisbon Treaty:

54% Yes
24% No
22% Undecided

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ff-facing--wipeout-in-budget-backlash-1713447.html

[Јas]

New Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll:

Fine Gael: 26%
Fianna Fail: 23%
Labour Party: 18%
Sinn Fein: 5%
Independents: 4%
Greens: 3%
Others/Undecided: 21%

Lisbon Treaty:

54% Yes
24% No
22% Undecided

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ff-facing--wipeout-in-budget-backlash-1713447.html

Not a credible polling company (or a credible newspaper, IMO).
Better off randomly guessing numbers yourself frankly.


FTR, the best website for monitoring Irish political polls is guthanphobail.net
It is though in Irish ('guth an phobail' meaning 'voice of the people'). The main polling monitor feature is on the right-hand side of the page and despite the Irish should be mostly understandable - beneath the graph is a simple table logging polls by date starting with the most recent. The table lists the polling company, newspaper, sample size and party result. (Most of the parties have the same initials as in English, but for reference LO = Labour; CG = Greens; Eile = Others.)

The site contains some others neat features but most need some level of Irish to really get something out of them. (The stuff on the 2007 Dáil and Northern Irish Assembly elections is available in English though.)

[Јas]

Indications are now that, surprisingly, the Dublin Central by-election might not be held on 5 June - the same day as the local and European elections and the Dublin South by-election. - Irish Independent

Likely because FF want to run someone (probably Mary Fitzpatrick) running in the local council elections who would otherwise have to abandon the locals and risk everything on winning the by-election.

The decision probably won't bother Labour much either (as theyr're in a similar situation) or Sinn Féin who ideally would want to run Mary Lou McDonald (who's running for a European seat). Fine Gael are likely to be the most put out - their candidate Paschal Donoghue has been pretty much campaigning all on his own now for quite some time.

[Јas]

Tomorrow's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll:

Fine Gael 33 (+2)
Fianna Fáil 23 (-5)
Labour 19 (+2)
Sinn Féin 8 (+1)
Greens 7 (-)
Ind/Other 10 (-)


RTÉ also report, that:

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[Tender Branson]

In the European elections, the poll found support for the new Libertas party at just 2%, leaving the party with a lot of work to do in the next six weeks.

Interesting: Libertas with 3-times the support in France than in Ireland.

[Hash]

In the European elections, the poll found support for the new Libertas party at just 2%, leaving the party with a lot of work to do in the next six weeks.

Interesting: Libertas with 3-times the support in France than in Ireland.

That's misleading. Libertas is polling high in France only because Libertas in France is the MPF-CPNT. I think France is the only country where Libertas has managed to affiliate/whatever with a relatively important local entity. People aren't voting Libertas, and MPF voters probably have no clue what Libertas is. If Libertas ran alone with no parties, it would poll 0.5% or so.

[Јas]

Tomorrow's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll:

Fine Gael 33 (+2)
Fianna Fáil 23 (-5)
Labour 19 (+2)
Sinn Féin 8 (+1)
Greens 7 (-)
Ind/Other 10 (-)


RTÉ also report, that:

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I haae the full breakdown now...participants were asked their voting intentions for each f a general Election, local elections and European elections.

	General	Local	European
Fine Gael	33	29	32
Fianna Fáil	23	23	25
Labour	19	20	17
Sinn Féin	8	9	8
Green	7	7	7
Libertas	-	-	2
Ind/Other	10	12	10

For reference, the following are the most recent results in each of those elections:

	General	Local	European
Fine Gael	27	28	28
Fianna Fáil	42	32	29
Labour	10	11	11
Sinn Féin	7	8	11
Green	5	4	4
Libertas	-	-	-
Ind/Other	6	17	17

On the European elections, RedC have put out the results broken down by constituency, but obviously the numbers are the result of much smaller sample sizes and so are very possibly useless, but nonetheless...

	Dublin	East	South	Northwest
Fine Gael	30	37	34	29
Fianna Fáil	26	21	24	29
Labour	16	21	19	11
Sinn Féin	8	6	4	14
Green	13	5	5	5
Libertas	1	3	3	1
Ind/Other	7	8	12	11

All 4 constituencies are 3 seaters, so a quota of 25% is the target.
On the above numbers, it would look like 1 FF and 1 FG in all 4. Most likely Labour seats in East and South, and probably Labour in Dublin. The final seat in Northwest too tough to call between Labour, Sinn Féin and Independent. Libertas appear to be nowhere.

That would mean Sinn Féin lose 1 in Dublin (where there is a seat reduction); Lab gain from FG in East; Lab gain from Ind (Kathy Sinnott) in South; and possibly no change in Northwest or Lab/SF gain from Ind (Marian Harkin).


One other thing from the poll, Lisbon:
Yes 59 (-)
No 27 (+1)
Don't Know 14 (-1)

[Јas]

The Government have confirmed that the by-elections in Dublin South and Dublin Central will be hed on June 5 - the same day as the local and European elections. The decision comes following pressure from Fine Gael who were about to put motions on moving the by-election writs before the Dáil.

---

In other news, one of the demoted Ministers of State, John McGuinness (FF, Carlow-Kilkenny) has been making waves criticising the direction of Government and more particularly the competence of Mary Coughlan (FF, Donegal SW) - the Tánaiste (Dep. PM) and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment (McGuinness's former Department).

McGuinness though has continued to vote with the Government over the past week - but there is an air of uncertainly hanging over just how dependable his vote will prove.

[Јas]

Couple of pieces of news...

Patricia McKenna has left the Green Party and will run as an Independent in the European election in Dublin to try and regain the seat she lost in 2004 following 2 terms of office. McKenna had been the leading personality against going into Government with Fianna Fáil (she lost by about a 2-1 margin in the leadership election against John Gormley shortly thereafter) and has been fairly critical of the Greens efforts since then.

McKenna is also notable as an anti-Lisbon (or really any Euro-treaty you care to mention) campaigner - another issue that divides the Greens. She has, IMO, no real chance of election, but it will be interesting to see how she performs compared to the official Green candidate, Sen. Deirdre de Búrca.


The candidate declarations for the 2 Dáil by-elections on 5 June are almost done. By far the highest profile and most notable is Fine Gael's candidate in Dublin South. George Lee was, until yesterday, the economic editor for RTÉ News (RTÉ being Ireland's public service broadcaster, á la the BBC) - a position he has held for 13 years. Lee is a household name and a respected economic commentator who has been very critical of Government economic policy for quite some time. The by-election is his to lose.

[Јas]

Fianna Fáil held theirby-election selection conventions last night and have decided to play up their forté for dynastical politics to the max.

In Dublin South, Shay Brennan won in a close contest with Sen. Maria Corrigan. Brennan is the son of Séamus Brennan whose death led to this by-election. He is also an employee of the now nationalised (and vilified) Anglo-Irish Bank.

In Dublin Central, Cllr. Maurice Ahern (70, brother of Bertie) was chosen ahead of Cllr. Mary Fitzpatrick - a selection which reflects a long-standing division within FF in that constiuency.

Neither stand much chance of election, IMO, but they should both have enough votes as being important in determining the eventual winners.


Anyway, we now know the nominations of all the main parties for both constituencies...

Dublin South
Shay Brennan (Fianna Fáil)

Elizabeth Davidson (Green)
- A community worker based in Tallaght. She ran and lost in the local elections there in 2004 and again in the the 2007 General there - that time picking up 3.7% of the vote.

George Lee (Fine Gael)
- Journalist/Economist, see yesterday's post above.

Ross O'Mullane (Independent)
- Mr O'Mullane is proposing to act on the basis of the votes of users of his website forum unitedminds.ie.

Shaun Tracey (Sinn Féin)
- A SF party publicity officer, Tracy ran in this constituency in the General taking all of 1.4% of the vote, coming 12th, 1 place behind his party colleague who took 1.6%.

Sen. Alex White (Labour)
 - Barrister, Senator. White was elected a Councillor in the 2004 Locals, but lost in this constituency in the 2007 General taking 5.8% of the vote; bettering his running mate's 4.6%.


Dublin Central
Maurice Ahern (Fianna Fáil)
     
Sen. Ivana Bacik (Labour)
- The most high profile of the declared candidates in this race, Bacik is an academic and barrister, and often gets airtime in the media. She ran in the 2004 Europeans in Dublin as a running mate for incumbent deRossa, and got a respectabe result (9.7%).

Sen. Paschal Donohoe (Fine Gael)
- Elected as a Councillor in 2004, Donoghue ran in this constituency in the General in 2007 and with 9.5% of the 1st preferences (FG's worst result in all 43 constituencies), he came 5th in this 4 seater.

David Geary (Green)
- Solicitor, no electoral experience

Cllr. Maureen O'Sullivan (Independent)
- Supporter of Tony Gregory, whose death brought about this by-election. No electoral experience, beyond being part of Gregory's campaigns; very hard to say how well the Gregory vote will hold up.

Malachy Steenson (Workers' Party)
- No electoral experience. Front-runner to take the wooden spoon.

? (Sinn Féin)
- The last significant declaration to be made. Should be known shortly.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll:

Dublin South:

George Lee (FG): 49%
Alex White (Labour): 12%
Shay Brennan (FF): 9%

Dublin Central:

Paschal Donohoe (FG): 28%
Ivana Bacik (Labour): 20%
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind): 18%
Maurice Ahern (FF): 10%

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fine-gael-storming-ahead-in-vote-poll-1734621.html

[Kevinstat]

Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll:

Dublin South:

George Lee (FG): 49%
Alex White (Labour): 12%
Shay Brennan (FF): 9%

Dublin Central:

Paschal Donohoe (FG): 28%
Ivana Bacik (Labour): 20%
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind): 18%
Maurice Ahern (FF): 10%

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fine-gael-storming-ahead-in-vote-poll-1734621.html

Are the results with all candidates included in the poll and the other and undecided (or Other/Undecided grouped together) available somewhere?  I imagine the Undecided vote in Dublin South is greater than 2%, which would give George Lee a majority of the decided vote.  On these numbers Lee would at least win on the second count, and probably the first.  Dublin Central seems likely to take at least three counts, but I'm not sure if Ahern would be eliminated on the first count of three on these numbers or on the second count of four (as I don't know how strong candidates further down are polling).  The article you cited said that "Mr Donohoe will need to poll strongly on first preference" if he is to be elected "as he is likely to suffer from a lack of transfers."  I'm not sure if an 8% margin over the Bacik or a 10% margin over O'Sullivan is enough.  The Ahern vote might determine whether the final head-to-head runoff is between Fine Gael and Labour or between Fine Gael and the Gregoryite Independent, which could be decisive if the non-first preference Fine Gael vote heavily favors Labour and/or O'Sullivan over Fine Gael.  Which of the second- and third-place polling candidates in Dublin Central do resident Irish political experts think is likely to do better head-to-head against Donohue in a final count?

[Hash]

but I'm not sure if Ahern would be eliminated on the first count of three on these numbers or on the second count of four (as I don't know how strong candidates further down are polling).

I'm quite sure Ahern won't be bumped out on the first count. The Trot will likely go out first obviously, then I'd expect the Greenie to go out on the second count. I just don't see the Greenie polling more than Ahern.

I'm not sure if Sinn Féin is running a candidate, but they would pretty much certainly be out before Ahern.

[Kevinstat]

but I'm not sure if Ahern would be eliminated on the first count of three on these numbers or on the second count of four (as I don't know how strong candidates further down are polling).

I'm quite sure Ahern won't be bumped out on the first count. The Trot will likely go out first obviously, then I'd expect the Greenie to go out on the second count. I just don't see the Greenie polling more than Ahern.

I'm not sure if Sinn Féin is running a candidate, but they would pretty much certainly be out before Ahern.

Wouldn't the "Trot" (I assume you mean the Workers' Party candidate), the Sinn Féin candidate (if there is one), the Greenie and Ahern all be eliminated on (by which I mean as a result of) the first count if their votes combined are less than that of the next highest polling candidate?  If only one candidate can be eliminated per count no matter what (unless all candidates had met the quota, which is a simple majority here), then I definitely take that back about Ahern potentially being eliminated on the first or even the second counts.  I wasn't saying that I thought Ahern would finish lower than forth, but I thought the first count result might make Ahern being among the top three candidates after all candidates receiving fewer votes than Ahern were eliminated (and their votes redistributed to the top preference among those candidates not yet eliminated) a mathematical impossibility that would result in all but the top three candidates being eliminated as a result of the first count.  Even if there were enough votes for candidates polling worse than Ahern for Ahern to theoretically get into third place or better based on the first count results, I imagine those candidates combined would poll worse than Ahern and I assumed that in that case those candidates would all be eliminated on the first count and that their eliminations and trasfers would leave Ahern in last place out of the remaining four candidates whereby he would be eliminated.  Again (well, I'll be a little more broad in my description this time), that assumes that if, after any count in a one-winner STV (equivilent the the American Instant Runoff voting) Dáil by-election in Ireland, starting with just the leading candidate on that count, then the leading two candidates, then the leading three candidates and so on, if the last of those candidates in terms of votes in that count has more votes in that count than all further behind candidates combined, all of those candidates will be eliminated and their votes transfered before the next count (if there isn't only one candidate left, which would mean that candidate had attained a majority of the vote in that count).  Perhaps Jas or Gully Foyle can educate me on the STV counting procedures in Ireland (or at least those that would apply in a one-winner election with no surplusses from already elected candidates).

[minionofmidas]

Wouldn't the "Trot" (I assume you mean the Workers' Party candidate), the Sinn Féin candidate (if there is one), the Greenie and Ahern all be eliminated on (by which I mean as a result of) the first count if their votes combined are less than that of the next highest polling candidate? 

You are quite correct, sir.

[Јas]

Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll:

Dublin South:

George Lee (FG): 49%
Alex White (Labour): 12%
Shay Brennan (FF): 9%

Dublin Central:

Paschal Donohoe (FG): 28%
Ivana Bacik (Labour): 20%
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind): 18%
Maurice Ahern (FF): 10%

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fine-gael-storming-ahead-in-vote-poll-1734621.html

Still a joke polling company (and newspaper).

[Јas]

Are the results with all candidates included in the poll and the other and undecided (or Other/Undecided grouped together) available somewhere? 

Mmm...Yeah.
I'll throw up for comparison the various party 1st preferences for comparison.

Dublin Central

	Poll	Election 07
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	28	10
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	20	13
Maureen O'Sullivan (Gregoryite)	18	13
Maurice Ahern (FF)	10	44
Sinn Féin (SF)	3	9
David Geary (Green)	2	6
Malachy Steenson (Workers)	1	-
Undecided	18	-

Some notes...
Since the poll was put together, Christy Burke has been put forward as Sinn Féin's candidate. Burke was SF's candidate in the constituency from 1982-97, polling in the range of 3-7%. He has since though been elected and retained as a local councillor and if he polls a mere 3% (or within the margin of error of 3%) I'll be very surprised.

Also, Pat Talbot of the 'Immigration Control Platform' will be standing again. Will he improve on his stellar 0.69% in 2007?...watch this space.


Dublin South

	Poll	Election 07
George Lee (FG)	49	27
Alex White (Lab)	12	10
Shay Brennan (FF)	9	41
Elizabeth Davidson (Green)	6	11
Ross O'Mullane (Ind)	2	-
Shaun Tracy (SF)	1	3
Undecided	21	-

As it happens, I currently reside in this constituency (though I'm not registered here). I had some Shay Brennan canvassers around yesterday. I felt kind of sorry for them.

I imagine the Undecided vote in Dublin South is greater than 2%, which would give George Lee a majority of the decided vote.  On these numbers Lee would at least win on the second count, and probably the first. 

True. Though Lee is the overwhelming favourite and should win comfortably, I'd be surprised if White does that poorly. (Same can be said for Brennan and Tracy, but it's certainly not inconceivable that White could make this a competitive by-election.)

Dublin Central seems likely to take at least three counts, but I'm not sure if Ahern would be eliminated on the first count of three on these numbers or on the second count of four (as I don't know how strong candidates further down are polling).  The article you cited said that "Mr Donohoe will need to poll strongly on first preference" if he is to be elected "as he is likely to suffer from a lack of transfers."  I'm not sure if an 8% margin over the Bacik or a 10% margin over O'Sullivan is enough.  The Ahern vote might determine whether the final head-to-head runoff is between Fine Gael and Labour or between Fine Gael and the Gregoryite Independent, which could be decisive if the non-first preference Fine Gael vote heavily favors Labour and/or O'Sullivan over Fine Gael.  Which of the second- and third-place polling candidates in Dublin Central do resident Irish political experts think is likely to do better head-to-head against Donohue in a final count?

O'Sullivan would do better (Bacik is not suited to this constituency), but though I expect Donoghue to be in the final count, I doubt he wins against either Bacik or O'Sullivan. I also expect Burke to be a serious player in this election and am not yet willing to dismiss the possibility that he could win.