Ireland 2009

[minionofmidas]

Gilmore for Taoiseach?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why aren't the Greens going to collapse the goverment? (In saying that, elections are three years away, but which this opportunity will be wasted, however given the order of things right now I can't imagine anyone wanting to run this country. The meeja alone are bad enough, see the thread I posted in Individual politics.)

Either way as I said on the other thread on the other board, THIRD PLACE! THIRD PLACE!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Btw even if these results WERE to be repeated come election time (not going to happen, the FF machine is still a mighty one...), FF would still finish second though embarrasingly. Simply Labour don't have the tradition or organization to finish second, also there would be trouble with transfers.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Okay I'm bored and have decided to guess (Stress on this) the seat distrubtion if that were to happen in an election. However this is truly unpredictable, for example I suspect there might be alot of Labour-FF transfers, much more than usual, as I suspect with others is that what is happening is the erosion of FFs working class vote and then there are the Greens transfers.... And of course it is impossible to predict independents, so I sort of ignored them unless there is an incumbent.

Carlow-Kilkenny: 2FF 2FG 1LAB
Cavan-Monaghan: 1FF 3FG 1SF (Though if SF run a second candidate, they might beat FG for the final seat)
Clare: 2FF 2FG (even if that Poll still difficult to see how any result can very different without Inds)
Cork East: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Cork North Central: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Cork North West: 1FF 2FG
Cork South Central: 1FF 3FG 1LAB
Cork South West: 1FF 2FG
Donegal North East: 1FF 1FG 1SF
Donegal South West: 1FF 1FG 1SF
Dublin Central (still has to be by-election here): 1FF 1FG 2LAB (The Dublin ones are probably the least predictable... alot would depend on where Bertie's personal vote would go and there is always SF)
Dublin Mid West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF (very tricky, this is the sort of suburban area which should see massive swings against FF)
Dublin North: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC
Dublin North Central: 1FF 1FG 1IND (If Finian McGrath doesn't run, then either FG/LAB gain (might be so anyway), I'm hoping Richard Bruton might become leader of FG by then, so if so FG gain)
Dublin North East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Dublin North West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Dublin South (By election soon): 1FF 2FG 2LAB
Dublin South Central: 1FF 1FG 2LAB 1SF
Dublin South East: 0FF 2FG 1LAB 1GP
Dublin South West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF
Dublin West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC
Dun Laoghaire: 1FF 1FG 2LAB
Galway East: 1FF 3FG
Galway West: 1FF 2FG 2LAB (a bit ambitious this one...)
Kerry North: 0FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF
Kerry South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Kildare North: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Kildare South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Laois-Offaly: 2FF 3FG (lol)
Limerick: 1FF 2FG
Limerick City: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Longford-Westmeath: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Louth: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1SF
Mayo: 2FF 3FG (could 1-4 if Enda still leader)
Meath East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Meath West: 1FF 2FG
Roscommon-Sleitrim: 1FF 2FG
Sligo-Nleitrim: 1FF 2FG
Tipperary North: 0FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND
Tipperary South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Waterford: 1FF 1FG 2LAB
Wexford: 1FF 2FG 2LAB (maybe could be 1-3-1)
Wicklow: 1FF 2FG 2LAB

Which Leaves... (placeholder)

[Јas]

Why aren't the Greens going to collapse the goverment? (In saying that, elections are three years away, but which this opportunity will be wasted, however given the order of things right now I can't imagine anyone wanting to run this country. The meeja alone are bad enough, see the thread I posted in Individual politics.)

They need a reason they can sell, to the media and the electorate, to walk out on. So far, they've been unflinching. They've sat through the public sector pay cut and the bank recapitalisation without a hint of real dissatisfaction. I don't see what would shift them at the moment.

Either way as I said on the other thread on the other board, THIRD PLACE! THIRD PLACE!

[Јas]

Carlow-Kilkenny: 2FF 2FG 1LAB

Disagree
1FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
That's with Mary White (Grn) defending the last seat in a tight race with both FF and Lab.

So FG and Lab gains from FF.

Cavan-Monaghan: 1FF 3FG 1SF (Though if SF run a second candidate, they might beat FG for the final seat)

1FF, 2FG, 1SF, and ... not sure. Depends very much on who stands. Would FG run 3 candidates? Would SF run 2? Would Labour run a credible candidate? Would Connolly run again or some other reasonable Independent?
I think on these numbers FF are only probable to win a second if the answer to all of the above is no. Odds are that one of the above answes though is yes, so I'll put it down as 1 Ind as a sort of default.

So FG and IND gains from FF.

Clare: 2FF 2FG (even if that Poll still difficult to see how any result can very different without Inds)

One of the amazing results of 1992 - Ireland's first Muslim TD, the unknown and unexpected Dr. Bhamjee elected on the Spring Tide.

I'd predict a repeat:
1FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab

Lab gain from FF

Cork East: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

Agree
Though Labour would be in strong contention for a second seat.

FG gain from FF

Cork North Central: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

Agree
I'd again think that Labour could strongly contend for a 2nd here on these numbers though.

FG gain from FF

Cork North West: 1FF 2FG

Agree - once more Labour in contention for the final seat against FG though.
Possible Cabinet seat lost here for Minister for Education Batt O'Keefe.

FG gain from FF

Cork South Central: 1FF 3FG 1LAB

1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab and again...unsure for the final seat.
I can't see a 3 FG seat here. FF would have a shot at defending their 2nd seat. I wouldn't even dismiss the Greens to retake it. Cork SC is an odd place - Pat Cox won here, Kathy Sinnott lost by 6 votes or so. Can't rule out a random Independent. A good 2nd Labour candidate could also steal it.

For want of filling it in I think FF defending th 2nd seat is what I'll punt for.

No change.

Cork South West: 1FF 2FG

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
(Though I could have agreed with your prediction also - or even 2 FG, 1 Lab.)

Lab gain from FG

Donegal North East: 1FF 1FG 1SF

Agree

SF gain from FF

Donegal South West: 1FF 1FG 1SF

Agree

SF gain from FF

Dublin Central (still has to be by-election here): 1FF 1FG 2LAB (The Dublin ones are probably the least predictable... alot would depend on where Bertie's personal vote would go and there is always SF)

1 FF, 2 Lab, 1 SF
Incredibly diffficult to predict what happens in Dublin Central without Ahern and Gregory. The absence of predicting a FG seat here is either genius or insane and nothing in between.

Lab and SF gains from FF and Ind

Dublin Mid West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF (very tricky, this is the sort of suburban area which should see massive swings against FF)

Agree

SF gain from Grn

Dublin North: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
Greens to just about hold off a Socialist gain here.

Lab gain from FF

Dublin North Central: 1FF 1FG 1IND (If Finian McGrath doesn't run, then either FG/LAB gain (might be so anyway), I'm hoping Richard Bruton might become leader of FG by then, so if so FG gain)

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

Lab gain from Ind

Dublin North East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF

SF gain from FF

Dublin North West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 SF

SF gain from FF

Dublin South (By election soon): 1FF 2FG 2LAB

1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
With Labour pushing hard for the Green seat as well.

Lab gain from FF

Dublin South Central: 1FF 1FG 2LAB 1SF

Agree

Lab gain from FF

Dublin South East: 0FF 2FG 1LAB 1GP

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
One of the most difficult constituencies so far. Where does the McDowell vote go? I suspect enough of it gets to FF to help them over the line. Gormley obviously not safe - but it really depends on the 2nd candidates of FG and Lab.

No change.

Dublin South West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF

Agree
Though a 2nd Lab candidate would give SF a run for their money.

SF gain from FF

Dublin West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC

Agree
Though the Minister for Finance might well sweat it out.

Soc gain new seat

Dun Laoghaire: 1FF 1FG 2LAB

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 PBP

People Before Profit to gain one in a difficult one to forecast.

PBP gain from FF and Grn.

Galway East: 1FF 3FG

1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Assuming Labour can find a non-joke candidate.

Lab gain from FF

Galway West: 1FF 2FG 2LAB (a bit ambitious this one...)

2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab

Greakish to hold his ex-PD seat under the FF banner. FG to pick up a former FF seat, but would technically be a gain from PD.

FG gain from PD

Kerry North: 0FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF

Agree

Lab gain from FF

Kerry South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

2 FF, 1 Lab

Given the Ceann Comhairle's automatic re-election, only 2 seats actually up for grabs. Healy-Rae won't run again, and FF is the natural home of these votes. There should be enough for FF to take one of the two elected seats. The other should be close between FG and Lab, but on these numbers Lab should get it.

Lab and FF gain from FG and Ind

[Јas]

Kildare North: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Lab

Lab gain from FF

Kildare South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Agree

FG gain from FF

Laois-Offaly: 2FF 3FG (lol)

2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Another one where a non-joke Lab candidate would be needed - otherwise it would probably be 3 FG.

Lab gain from FF

Limerick: 1FF 2FG

Agree

FG gain from FF

Limerick City: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

Agree

FF seat lost

Longford-Westmeath: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

Agree

FG gain from FF

Louth: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1SF

Agree

Lab and FG gain from FF and new seat

Mayo: 2FF 3FG (could 1-4 if Enda still leader)

Agree

Technically FF gain from Ind, but no real change.

Meath East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Agree

Lab gain from FF

Meath West: 1FF 2FG

Agree

FG gain from FF

Roscommon-Sleitrim: 1FF 2FG

Agree

FG gain from FF

Sligo-Nleitrim: 1FF 2FG

Agree

FG gain from FF

Tipperary North: 0FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND

Agree
But I've no idea what will actually happen to Lowry's vote.

Lab gain from FF

Tipperary South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Agree

Lab gain from FF

Waterford: 1FF 1FG 2LAB

1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Close between FG/Lab for seat #4

FG gain from FF

Wexford: 1FF 2FG 2LAB (maybe could be 1-3-1)

2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Possible FG gain from FF. I don't see Lab running 2 here.

No change

Wicklow: 1FF 2FG 2LAB

Agree

Lab gain from FF

[Kevinstat]

Satisfaction with the Government?
14-82

Prefer a change of Government?
62-28

Translated into the colors Jas used for the two non-dissoliving Government parties and the two main opposition parties :

Satisfaction with the Government?
14-82

Prefer a change of Government?
62-28

[Јas]

Our predictions collated:

	Jas	Gully
Fine Gael	63	72
Fianna Fáil	46	44
Labour	38	37
Sinn Féin	11	8
Greens	4	1
Socialist	1	2
People Before Profit	1	0
Independents	2	2

...which surprises me as to just how substantial I have the FF/Lab gap at.

[Kevinstat]

If Fine Gael becomes by far the largest party after this election as both of you presently predict (there doesn't seem to be much doubt now about them surpassing Fianna Fáil, but the final result could be closer), is there any chance Fianna Fáil and Labour could form a coalition government (Jas predicts the two parties to have 84 TDs between them, just enough for a majority alone if the Ceann Comhairle comes from one of those two parties; some of Jas's projected four Independents or the Greens could give the government a cushion) as I've heard a Fine Gaal-Labour government might be "too large"?  I remember someone saying that about a Fianna Fáil-Labour government with 98 TDs counting the outgoing Ceann Comhairle, whereas Jas projects Fine Gael and Labour to have 109 TDs between them and Gully The Man Machine projects those two parties to have 116 seats between them (although I imagine he would have projected Fianna Fail to elect 2 TDs in Kerry South if he knew about the FF Ceann Comhairle being automatically reelected, which would mean "only" 115 TDs for Fine Gaal and Labour before the new Ceann Comhairle was elected; please correct me Gully if I'm mistaken).

[Hash]

What seat allocation would that poll give us in the June EU elections?

[Јas]

If Fine Gael becomes by far the largest party after this election as both of you presently predict (there doesn't seem to be much doubt now about them surpassing Fianna Fáil, but the final result could be closer), is there any chance Fianna Fáil and Labour could form a coalition government (Jas predicts the two parties to have 84 TDs between them, just enough for a majority alone if the Ceann Comhairle comes from one of those two parties; some of Jas's projected four Independents or the Greens could give the government a cushion) as I've heard a Fine Gaal-Labour government might be "too large"?  I remember someone saying that about a Fianna Fáil-Labour government with 98 TDs counting the outgoing Ceann Comhairle, whereas Jas projects Fine Gael and Labour to have 109 TDs between them and Gully The Man Machine projects those two parties to have 116 seats between them (although I imagine he would have projected Fianna Fail to elect 2 TDs in Kerry South if he knew about the FF Ceann Comhairle being automatically reelected, which would mean "only" 115 TDs for Fine Gaal and Labour before the new Ceann Comhairle was elected; please correct me Gully if I'm mistaken).

Well, first things first...I wouldn't take for granted that after the next General Election FG will be the largest party. Given that we really don't know when the next election will be between now and 2012, and given how quickly things can change, little can be taken for granted. Plus this is but one poll, with some very unusual numbers. Even though TNS have been our most accurate pollster, one shouldn't be prepared to rule out the possibility that this is a rogue poll.

Now, that said, if a General Election was to be held in the short term and we did get results like this, then a FG-Lab Government is the only realistic outcome. (Your addition of our coalition numbers is a bit off btw, my numbers would give FG/Lab 101 TDs, Gully 109.) If FG get high enough, maybe a minority Government could be considered - but I doubt either of our projections allow that to come about. I don't see Labour contemplating coalition with Fianna Fáil in the medium-term ; FF are politically radioactive at the moment, to be seen to be propping them up could be electoral suicide, and Labour remember that coalition with FF in 1992 led to long-lasting electoral punishment.

Governments that are 'too-large' find that they have problems on their own side rather than with the opposition. It's something which I believe has arisen occasionally in other parliamentary democracies too.

[Јas]

What seat allocation would that poll give us in the June EU elections?

The European elections here will be complicated by the presumed presence of Libertas, a leading anti-Lisbon Treaty campaign group. Nobody rally knows how they'll perform.

However, taking the numbers at face value, I'd suggest...
Dublin: 1 FG, 1 Lab + either Lab/SF for the 3rd seat.
Lab/SF gain from FF

South: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind
No change
Though I really have no idea how Independent, Kathy Sinnott's vote will hold up.

Northwest: 1 FG, 1 Ind, + either FF/SF for the 3rd seat.
Either no change or SF gain from FF.
Again though judging how well the Independent vote will old is difficult.

East: 2 FG, 1 Lab
Lab gain from FF


Totals:
Fine Gael 5
Labour 2-3
Fianna Fáil 1-2
Sinn Féin 0-2
Independents 2

[Kevinstat]

(Your addition of our coalition numbers is a bit off btw, my numbers would give FG/Lab 101 TDs, Gully 109.)

Oops.  I added FG and FF by mistake.  101 and 109 are still above the FF/Lab figure for this last election, but I understand the circumstances would be different.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Jas, Thanks for not punishing my laziness and counting up my tally.

Anyway I will just add that I don't think that the Greens will do as well as you predict, especially considering the location of their seats - Dublin North, Dublin SE and maybe Dublin South seem to be the only ones which could be possible holds. Possible. Though they might pick up some ex-FF vote from other places. Also in large parts of the country (say Clare or Galway East) it is still difficult for the Labour Party to find a non-joke candidate, though in saying that they will probably some more counciller incumbents after this years locals than before. Also don't underestimate the extent to which large rural conservative constituencies vote for either FF or FG and no-one else (though you are right in your 1992 comparsion, however remember Personality politics is what matters here). Also yes are probably right about Kerry South, I forgot about the Ceann Comhairle. It is epic fail than the CC sits in a 3 seat constituencies, a 2 seat election is rather lame (especially considering that the CC is a member of one of the two major parties).

[Јas]

Jas, Thanks for not punishing my laziness and counting up my tally.

No problem. I just wanted to see how close our general numbers were.

Anyway I will just add that I don't think that the Greens will do as well as you predict, especially considering the location of their seats - Dublin North, Dublin SE and maybe Dublin South seem to be the only ones which could be possible holds. Possible. Though they might pick up some ex-FF vote from other places.

Well, the poll pretty much has the Greens exactly where they were at the last election. I still think they'll be fairly transfer-friendly (though obviously much less so than they have been) and should see more FF transfers to pick up on. I'd agree though that there would be no safe Green seat in this scenario.

Also in large parts of the country (say Clare or Galway East) it is still difficult for the Labour Party to find a non-joke candidate, though in saying that they will probably some more counciller incumbents after this years locals than before. Also don't underestimate the extent to which large rural conservative constituencies vote for either FF or FG and no-one else (though you are right in your 1992 comparsion, however remember Personality politics is what matters here).

You're quite right. Some of Labour's candidate selections are shameful. However, if we are to presume they pick up 24% of the vote, then surprises will emerge (presumably on a bigger scale than in 1992). I'd suggest even that I've been somewhat conservative about their potential in this prediction...given those sorts of numbers.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Odd Demographics on this Poll I took from Politics.ie (not sure how accurate, but worth posting anyway, especially given their counter-intuitiveness):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Lol@FF in Dublin. But those Dublin numbers for the three parties put together are far too low, what gives?

[Јas]

Lol@FF in Dublin. But those Dublin numbers for the three parties put together are far too low, what gives?

I'd guess that undecideds/don't knows weren't excluded, but I don't know.

[Јas]

The same TNS poll, for publication on tomorrow's Irish Times, shows support for Lisbon increasing.
In favour: 51 (+8)
Against: 33 (-6)

[Јas]

The same TNS poll, for publication on tomorrow's Irish Times, shows support for Lisbon increasing.
In favour: 51 (+8)
Against: 33 (-6)

Breakdown by Party
Fianna Fáil: 60-31
Fine Gael: 59-29
Labour: 53-34
Greens: 57-33
Sinn Féin: 30-49

[Јas]

The first Millard Browne/IMS poll (for the Irish Independent) since the election was published today.

State of the Parties

	MB/IMS	Election	MB/IMS
	Feb 09	May 08	May 08
Fianna Fáil	25	42	37
Fine Gael	30	27	25
Labour	22	10	12
Sinn Féin	7	7	9
Green	5	5	5
Ind/Other	10	7	9

Satisfaction Ratings
Government: 10-86
Taoiseach Brian Cowen (FF): 21-72
Enda Kenny (FG): 29-57
Eamon Gilmore (Lab): 52-28
Gerry Adams (SF): 37-41
John Gormley (Grn): 28-52

Should there be a General Election called?
52-40

[Verily]

The Greens are crazy to not bring down the government at this point. Just doing so would be worth a big bump in their approval ratings, if not necessarily support.

[Јas]

Same IMB/IMS poll:

Lisbon II:
46-27


In other Euro-news, Fianna Fáil will be changing their European affiliation and moving from the small UEN to the Liberals (Irish Times).

The Greens are crazy to not bring down the government at this point. Just doing so would be worth a big bump in their approval ratings, if not necessarily support.

Paul Gogarty (Grn-Dublin MW) might agree with you. He was interviewed by Hot Press (a music magazine with forays into quasi-leftist anti-establishment political interviews/reporting) last week and made explicitly clear his view that the Greens were being screwed by Fianna Fáil. (see The Irish Times)

My own view, is that pulling out of Government now, and so effectively forcing an Election would be putting every Green seat on the line. Having rowed in directly behind FF on pretty much every major decision of the Government, they would (IMO) need a credible issue to walk out on.

The Greens potentially have a very strong position within Government until 2012. It's possible that the best advice for the Greens is to act on the assumption that they will be all voted out in the next election, and so work to maximise the implementation of Green policies within the lifetime of this Government using their new found leverage as the only thing keeping a historically policy-pliant FF in power.

[Hash]

In other Euro-news, Fianna Fáil will be changing their European affiliation and moving from the small UEN to the Liberals (Irish Times).

'bout time.

Hopefully, this deals the final blow to the UEN after the June elections.

[Verily]

Pity it has to be the ALDE. I'd rather they not taint liberalism. Why not the EPP-ED?