Feb. 9th primaries & caucuses--Dem. results thread

[Torie]

3-1 for Obama in nine precincts in Seattle in the caucuses. It involved about a 1,000 people.

[Torie]

The teaser poll results in Louisiana suggest that it will be a relatively tight race - probably Obama by a few percent. If true, Obama didn't get much of the white vote there.

[Torie]

If true, Obama didn't get much of the white vote there.

I AM SHOCKED!!!!!11111

Well he got 26% of it in South Carolina. It does not look like he will get that much in Louisiana per the tea leaves, but I am filling in perhaps too many blanks. Those in Louisiana concerned about the economy split evenly between the two candidates is the main tea leaf I am looking at.

[Torie]

More reports coming in.

Seattle city:

Belltown: 5-to-1 Obama
Eastlake: 3.5-to-1 Obama
Cap Hill (north): 2.5-to-1 Obama
Crown Hill: 3-to-1 Obama
Green Lake: 5-to-1 Obama
Interbay: "Obama landslide"
Madison Park: "Very close"
Rainier Beach: 8-to-1 Obama
Ravenna: 5-to-1 Obama
South Ravenna: 5-to-1 Obama

Other:

Bellingham: 3.5-to-1 Obama
Lake Forest Park (suburban Seattle): 4.5-to-1 Obama
Maple Valley: 1.5-to-1 Obama
Olympia: 3-to-1 Obama
Tacoma (central): 1.5-to-1 Obama
Tacoma (north): 2.5-to-1 Obama

That is interesting. Madison Park is high income, yet Obama is relatively weak there. Obama is doing very well in eclectic, gay and university zones in Seattle, at least in neighborhood names that I recognize.  Where is "interbay?" Is that a minority area?

[Torie]

If true, Obama didn't get much of the white vote there.

I AM SHOCKED!!!!!11111

Well he got 26% of it in South Carolina. It does not look like he will get that much in Louisiana per the tea leaves, but I am filling in perhaps too many blanks. Those in Louisiana concerned about the economy split evenly between the two candidates is the main tea leaf I am looking at.

Where are you getting these polls?

They are being reported on Fox News.

[Torie]

Ya, I am probably the only participant watching Fox News on this thread.

[Torie]

Reports of 9-to-1 murder in downtown Olympia

Clinton failing to receive any delegates in Carnation, a small left-leaning town outside of metro Seattle

UW dorms giving Obama votes at 8-to-1 margin

Unless Clinton is doing very well in rural areas...this is way beyond what I'd have ever expected.  My prediction blew.

Where are you getting all of this stuff?

[Torie]

Where are you getting all of this stuff?

Anecdotal newspaper reports, anecdotal reports of people I know, etc.

You are doing a great job. I had to gin up a neighborhood map of Seattle though, to find some of the names.

[Torie]

Some post from a Seattle Times poster said it was 2-1 Obama in Yakima per the buzz.

One Caucus site from Vancouver (across the river from Portland), 3-1 Obama.

[Torie]

2-to-1 Obama in Yakima?  Good god.  The city?  The entire city?  Not the majority Latino part?

Obama apparently 3-to-1'ed a part of Edmonds where nearly half the Democrat voters are Asians.

Here is the copy and paste:

In Yakima, it's Obama:

    Turnout was huge. In 2004, we had 24 precincts meeting at our location location. Today we had six and the the room was packed. Many more people than in 2004.

    Clinton had no organization and only one sign. It was home-made. Obama stuff was everywhere, and they were organized down to the precinct level.

    Results for my precinct: 41 for Obama, 19 for Clinton. The other precincts had similar numbers.

[Torie]

Matt Fisher says from Bellingham:

    Precint 208 in Bellingham: had about 128 people present. 13 delegates for Obama, 3 for Clinton.

[Torie]

Since 37 delegates in Louisiana are allocated by CD's, and 19 proportionally based on the statewide vote, Clinton will carry a majority of the CD's (probably all but 2 or 3 of them) but with the CD delegates allocated based on the last governor election, it looks like the delegates will be about evenly split.

[Torie]

I am listening to Obama. Does Obama ever say anything other  than generalities?  Where's the beef? 

[Torie]

I am listening to Obama. Does Obama ever say anything other  than generalities?  Where's the beef? 

He just spoke specifically about making college more affordable, off the top of my head.

 That's beef? Let's make everything affordable. Let's make mistresses affordable come to think of it.  Rudy would like that program.

[Torie]

"He spoke about a year in public service would allow the government to fund for college tuition."

Well that is more specific. How much will  that cost?  Public service for a year will cost what, and then free tuition will cost what? And how is it paid for?  In fact, how much is Obama going to cost in toto, if he gets all he wants in toto?  Just asking? 

[Torie]

Yeah and McCain's speeches (which are dull as hell) are really specific? Give me a break. No candidate does that on speeches like this.

McCain is not promising me free mistresses. In fact, he is promising sacrifice.

[Torie]

"He spoke about a year in public service would allow the government to fund for college tuition."

Well that is more specific. How much will  that cost?  Public service for a year will cost what, and then free tuition will cost what? And how is it paid for?  In fact, how much is Obama going to cost in toto, if he gets all he wants in toto?  Just asking? 

You expect that in a stump speech? I think you're just looking for excuses to attack Obama.

I like Obama personally, but I have never heard any beef from him really, other than some tax the rich stuff for his medical insurance program. But now there is so much more to pay for. Maybe we can tax the Saudis or something.

[Torie]

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She doesn't sound normal at all. Has she seen a therapist?

[Torie]

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Well that's a relief that the check will be sent out by the IRS rather than Health and Human services.

I know it is naughty for a right winger type (relatively speaking) to disturb this victory party. Sorry.

[Torie]

Alright, I've hijacked the thread enough so far.  We can discuss this at some later time or on other thread.

Actually I started it.

[Torie]

Texas is like California in the Dem primary for Obama but maybe worse. Texas has more blacks, but the Hispanics are probably more conservative/suspicious of blacks than  in California, and the Texas Dem primary is largely sans upper middle class Anglos, and probably has more rednecks still voting in it. Unless Hillary collapses, it's all hers.

Ohio is New Hampshire, but with a 14% black electorate, rather than maybe 3%, and also much lighter on middle to upper middle class Anglos, so clear edge to Clinton, but maybe more in play than Texas.

[Torie]

Can you lose the white vote as badly as Obama has and carry enough states to win?  Not rhetorical.

Obama split the white vote in California. If he does almost as well in Ohio (unlikely), it's his.

[Torie]

Texas is like California in the Dem primary for Obama but maybe worse. Texas has more blacks, but the Hispanics are probably more conservative/suspicious of blacks than  in California, and the Texas Dem primary is largely sans upper middle class Anglos, and probably has more rednecks still voting in it. Unless Hillary collapses, it's all hers.

I'll bump up my (still incomplete) analysis on the Texas Senate Districts for your perusal sometime later today. 

I'll also fill in my anecdotal reports from largely Hispanic (with redneck whites) east Houston that I get second-hand from a strong familial source.  In other words, when my father tells me of a Hispanic/redneck white he's met who is supporting Obama, I'll let you know. 

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So far, the working class white areas that resemble Ohio have not looked very pretty for Obama, even in Illinois (she beat him there).

Also, I seem to remember Cleveland having a large ethnic white population that is probably not inclined to vote for blacks.

Here is an article to throw into your pile for contemplation with my comment appended. In Texas you have rural and urban Hispanics, and some rubbing shoulders with blacks, and some not. You have the Rio Grande (rural no blacks), San Antonio (urban very few blacks), and Houston (urban with blacks). Will Obama run the worst with Hispanics in Houston, and the best in San Antonio?