OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[windjammer]

Considering the track record of Ohio polling, these polls suck and point to a Lean R race.

You say that and yet the final Atlas polling average of the three most recent polls for the 2022 Senate race nailed Vance’s winning margin.  In the Governor’s race, the margin was only off by 1% (over-estimated DeWine’s margin by one point).  

I think it’s way too early to speak with any kind of certainty about this race, especially if Republicans nominate a dumpster fire candidate like Bernie Moreno or Vivek Ramaswamy.  I could also easily see Dolan being a spoiler who costs LaRose the primary.  

X,
By which margin should Biden win the presidential election (national vote) to let Brown win against Larose?

[windjammer]

So there are some issues on the ballot and early voting has started.

What is going to be the final outcome ?

[windjammer]

Will there be a New redistricting ballot initiative in Ohio?

[windjammer]

If I understand correctly,
As the secretary of state, Larose is a huge supporter of this initiative to raise the threehold to pass ballot measures.

Given this is going to go down in flames, I suppose he's going to get hurt by this right ?

[windjammer]

Larose seems to be a super bland Guy.


I think it's more likely the pubs win MT than him becomingthe next oh senator

[windjammer]

LaRose is a bland guy who doesn't inspire the masses.

[windjammer]

I genuinely don't believe Sherrod Brown is a particular underdog (I'm more worried about MT actually).

He won in 2018 by 7 points After all

[windjammer]

I genuinely don't believe Moreno is a worse candidate than Larose. Larose seems to be quite a paper ticket to me

[windjammer]

I genuinely don't believe Moreno is a worse candidate than Larose. Larose seems to be quite a paper ticket to me

The best thing for him is that he can’t be tied to McConnell/D.C. party bosses/consultants like some of these other GOP recruits — that’s a bigger negative than being tied to Trump, even more so in a state like OH. It’s actually really helpful that the NRSC decided to stay out of this race.

His 'career politicians' playbook could also prove effective against Brown, who has been in politics for nearly half a century.

Yes, he's 'Trumpian', but so was Vance and he still won in what was a downright terrible year for the GOP in the Midwestern battlegrounds. Presidential turnout & Trump being on the ballot will help Moreno in this race, even if a more generic R might have performed a little better.

And frankly given Larose's drama with the abortion ballot initiative, he doesn't strike me as a great candidate,...

Romney lost OH, Trump won it

[windjammer]

For Democrats who are being overconfident of victory at this point, let's look at some things :

1) The potential vote-splitting that is needed for Brown to win. For context, here is Ohio in the last five Elections

2004 : Bush (R) +2.1
2008 : Obama (D) +4.59
2012 : Obama (D) +2.98
2016 : Trump (R) +8.07
2020 : Trump (R) +8.03

Now let's look at Brown's Victory Margins in his three elections

2006 : Brown (D) +12.34
2012 : Brown (D) +6
2018 : Brown (D) +6.84

Now, let's remove 2006 and 2018 and overlay Obama's victory and Brown's victory in 2012 to see how much Brown overperformed in 2012, when Ohio was more competitive than it is now

2012 : Brown +0.03

Now, let's look at Trump's recent polling in Ohio

As of rn, it looks like, if the election was held today, Trump would win Ohio by 10-12 % or more.

In a year where Trump is on the ballot, when his endorsed candidate is the Republican Nominee for Senate, in a very Trump friendly state, Brown would need to outperform Biden by at least 13 % or more. While we may see him outperform Joe by 4-6 %, outperforming him by double digits will be a damn near herculean task.

Meanwhile, it looks like Moreno has essentially united the base behind him with a +16.2 (AND GROWING) victory in the primary and has eight months to further fundraise, solidify the base behind him, and campaign with Trump in an election where the major thing will be how pro-America First policies you are in a state that is very pro-Trump while Brown has Biden's unpopularity hanging him down like a damn noose.

I'm not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but for Democrats saying like because Moreno and not Dolan is the Nominee, Ohio will stay blue downballot, don't expect to see an easy Brown win. Ohio is no longer a moderate or competitive state (and for people who bring up OH 2010, 2016, or DeWine's Re-election, the Democrats really didn't try in those races, especially when you remember DeWine was almost primaried out by more conservative opponents who, if united, likely would've beaten him, making him the first Governor since Abercombie (iirc) to be primaried). It's a populist right-wing state.

This is like saying a Pro-Sanders Candidate would lose in Oregon in an election where Sanders was the nominee.

2) You all said all the same things about J. D. Vance in 2022 and I remember it. You guys believed he was the weakest but then he legitimately won the race, surprising you all. The only reason he won by 7 and not by more was because he was 1) his primary was divisive, 2) Trump wasn't on the ballot, 3) 2022 seems to have been a weird aberration of a year that might not happen again for a long time.

Like I said, I am not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but you all shouldn't be treating Brown's re-election to a 4th term as inevitable because your echochambers tells you Biden is secretly popular or he will have a magical surge and win 55 % of the NPV. I'm treating the Presidential Election and the big three (outside of WV for obvious reasons) as what they should be perceived as : absolute, bitter dogfights to the bitter end and this attitude will only end in the last two weeks of the race.

I reccomend you all take the same opinion.

You're analysing data you want to analyse frankly

In 2018, in a d+8 environnement, Brown won by 7 so he Can clearly overperform.

This race is a toss UP to me.

[windjammer]

For Democrats who are being overconfident of victory at this point, let's look at some things :

1) The potential vote-splitting that is needed for Brown to win. For context, here is Ohio in the last five Elections

2004 : Bush (R) +2.1
2008 : Obama (D) +4.59
2012 : Obama (D) +2.98
2016 : Trump (R) +8.07
2020 : Trump (R) +8.03

Now let's look at Brown's Victory Margins in his three elections

2006 : Brown (D) +12.34
2012 : Brown (D) +6
2018 : Brown (D) +6.84

Now, let's remove 2006 and 2018 and overlay Obama's victory and Brown's victory in 2012 to see how much Brown overperformed in 2012, when Ohio was more competitive than it is now

2012 : Brown +0.03

Now, let's look at Trump's recent polling in Ohio

As of rn, it looks like, if the election was held today, Trump would win Ohio by 10-12 % or more.

In a year where Trump is on the ballot, when his endorsed candidate is the Republican Nominee for Senate, in a very Trump friendly state, Brown would need to outperform Biden by at least 13 % or more. While we may see him outperform Joe by 4-6 %, outperforming him by double digits will be a damn near herculean task.

Meanwhile, it looks like Moreno has essentially united the base behind him with a +16.2 (AND GROWING) victory in the primary and has eight months to further fundraise, solidify the base behind him, and campaign with Trump in an election where the major thing will be how pro-America First policies you are in a state that is very pro-Trump while Brown has Biden's unpopularity hanging him down like a damn noose.

I'm not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but for Democrats saying like because Moreno and not Dolan is the Nominee, Ohio will stay blue downballot, don't expect to see an easy Brown win. Ohio is no longer a moderate or competitive state (and for people who bring up OH 2010, 2016, or DeWine's Re-election, the Democrats really didn't try in those races, especially when you remember DeWine was almost primaried out by more conservative opponents who, if united, likely would've beaten him, making him the first Governor since Abercombie (iirc) to be primaried). It's a populist right-wing state.

This is like saying a Pro-Sanders Candidate would lose in Oregon in an election where Sanders was the nominee.

2) You all said all the same things about J. D. Vance in 2022 and I remember it. You guys believed he was the weakest but then he legitimately won the race, surprising you all. The only reason he won by 7 and not by more was because he was 1) his primary was divisive, 2) Trump wasn't on the ballot, 3) 2022 seems to have been a weird aberration of a year that might not happen again for a long time.

Like I said, I am not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but you all shouldn't be treating Brown's re-election to a 4th term as inevitable because your echochambers tells you Biden is secretly popular or he will have a magical surge and win 55 % of the NPV. I'm treating the Presidential Election and the big three (outside of WV for obvious reasons) as what they should be perceived as : absolute, bitter dogfights to the bitter end and this attitude will only end in the last two weeks of the race.

I reccomend you all take the same opinion.

You're analysing data you want to analyse frankly

In 2018, in a d+8 environnement, Brown won by 7 so he Can clearly overperform.

This race is a toss UP to me.

jim renacci gave up and it was a midterm compare to a presidential election.

I don't see why there should be a difference between "midterms" and "presidential year" regarding the overperformance.